Predict how much the 2006 Disney films will earn

[NarniaDis]

thanks Luke...

[PatrickvD]

Internationally Pirates made an additional $25.5 million this weekend, wich puts it at $522 million internationally and a whopping $923 million worldwide. Worldwide it is now #6.

This weekend it leaped over Fellowhsip of the Ring, Chamber of Secrets, Goblet of Fire, Jurassic Park and Shrek 2 ( )

On tuesday it will have passed The Phantom Menace and The Two Towers.

Domestically, Pirates passed the $400 million mark on sunday for a $401 million domestic total. It is set to pass Spiderman sometime this week.

Dead Man's Chest also became the first and only film since Titanic to have made over $400 million in the U.S. and over $500 million overseas.

[Luke]

Tomorrow is the <u><b>FINAL DAY</b></u> to make or revise predictions for <i>Invincible</i>. Come on people, we've only got 19 guesstimates in for it, which makes it the least-predicted Disney film of this year. Get those numbers in!

Before I post the fully updated numbers, it's time to reflect on the most recently-closed film (another one which I kick myself for straying from my initial prediction on).

<font color="#EF9733"><b>The Wild</b></font>
Opened April 14, 2006. Closed August 2006.

Final Gross: $37,384,046
Average Prediction: $65,576,190
Closest Prediction: $42,900,000 by ichabod (85.25% accurate)

Rest of predictions:
2) Timon/Pumbaa fan - $29 M (77.6% accurate)
3) Just Myself - $27 M (72.2% accurate)
4) Luke - $48 M (71.6% accurate)
5) PatrickvD - $23 M (61.5% accurate)
6) lord-of-sith - $50 M (66.25% accurate)
7) castleinthesky - $54 M (55.56% accurate)
8) Jake Lipson - $20 M (53.5% accurate)
9) Mushu - $60.3 M (38.7% accurate)
10) SofaKing38122 (26.1% accurate)
11) kbehm29 - $68.5 M (16.77% accurate)
12) yankees, NarniaDis, Disneykid - $70 M (12.8% accurate)
15) Lucylover1986 - $75 M (0% accurate)
16) pinkrenata - $84.7 M (0% accurate)
17) AwallaceUNC - $85 M (0% accurate)
18) MickeyMousePal - $90 M (0% accurate)
19) 2099net -$94.7 M (0% accurate)
20) Bill W - $100 M (0% accurate)
21) I Am The Doctor - $150 M (0% accurate)<hr>

[Luke]

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $325.1 M (current gross: $402,415,220, closest - Timon/Pumbaa fan and Disney Duster, $400 M)
Cars $237.4 M (current gross: $239,720,251, closest - castleinthesky, $240 M)
Meet the Robinsons $131.6 M
The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause $114.6 M
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (final gross: $61,123,569, closest - Lucylover1986/Just Myself/lord-of-sith/Disneykid, $60 M)
The Wild $65.6 M (final gross: $37,384,046, closest - ichabod, $42.9 M)
Bridge to Terabithia $65.25 M
Invincible $45.2 M
Glory Road $41.2 M (final gross: $42,647,449, closest - AwallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Eight Below $37.6 M (final gross: $81,612,565, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
Stick It $29.8 M (final gross: $26,910,736, closest - castleinthesky, $27 M)
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $8,404,830, closest - castleinthesky/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $9 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $4,435,497, closest - AwallaceUNC, $4.5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $8,404,830, closest - castleinthesky/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $9 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (final gross: $42,647,449, closest - AwallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $4,435,497, closest - AwallaceUNC, $4.5 M)
Eight Below $37.6 M (final gross: $81,612,565, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (final gross: $61,123,569, closest - Lucylover1986/Just Myself/lord-of-sith/Disneykid, $60 M)
The Wild $64.0 M (final gross: $37,384,046, closest - ichabod, $42.9 M)
Stick It $29.8 M ((final gross: $26,910,736, closest - castleinthesky, $27 M)
Cars $237.4 M (current gross: $239,720,251, closest - castleinthesky, $240 M)
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $321.6 M (current gross: $402,415,220, closest - Timon/Pumbaa fan and Disney Duster, $400 M)

Invincible $45.2 M
The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause $114.6 M

Bridge to Terabithia $65.25 M
Meet the Robinsons $131.6 M


Does anyone think we should try to predict the 3-D re-release of <i>Nightmare Before Christmas</i>? Or is it too much of a wild card and destined to merely throw off any successful averages we have?

[castleinthesky]

Revised Prediction for:

Invincible $ 45 M

[Mushu]

Revision for Invincible - 35 M

Does anyone think we should try to predict the 3-D re-release of <i>Nightmare Before Christmas</i>? Or is it too much of a wild card and destined to merely throw off any successful averages we have?

I think that it would be better if we just predict it for fun and not let it count towards our averages. (Not that it would matter for me.)

[Luke]

Minor revision for me (for <b><i>Invincible</i></b>) :$49 M

[Lucylover1986]

Does anyone think we should try to predict the 3-D re-release of <i>Nightmare Before Christmas</i>? Or is it too much of a wild card and destined to merely throw off any successful averages we have?

I don't think it's going to be that wide of a release. So I say no but doesn't matter to me. I didn't do as good this year as last year so I'm just playing for fun now.

[ichabod]

Yay! My prediction for The Wild was pretty much on the money!

[Bill W]

I'll stick with my original prediction of $60 M.

On another note, I was way off on The Wild! Apparently my preception of movies does not correlate very well with the theater-going-public's preception

[Lucylover1986]

I'll raise my prediction of Invincible to $44 million

[PatrickvD]

Revising to 53 million for Invincible if still possible... totally missed this.

edit: yeah I'm 5 hours too late I noticed lol... ah well... maybe it will flop and my 28 might turn out alright...... but I doubt it.

[ichabod]

Another Number 1 for Disney!

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

I hoping this doesn't turn into another Eight Below and go too far above my prediction!

[PatrickvD]

Another Number 1 for Disney!

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

I hoping this doesn't turn into another Eight Below and go too far above my prediction!

Disney is on a roll... under the Disney Pictures label they've had nthing but hits ever since Chicken Little. A winning streak that looks like it's not ending anytime soon. They're doing really good.

[TheSequelOfDisney]

I feel sorry for the movies like The Death of Mr. Lazarescu who only got $269 at the BO this weekend.

[Luke]

As a month has nearly passed, I think it's time for an update...

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $325.1 M (current gross: $418,423,124, closest - Timon/Pumbaa fan and Disney Duster, $400 M)
Cars $237.4 M (current gross: $243,067,357, closest - PatrickvD, $243 M)
Meet the Robinsons $131.6 M
The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause $114.6 M
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (final gross: $61,123,569, closest - Lucylover1986/Just Myself/lord-of-sith/Disneykid, $60 M)
The Wild $65.6 M (final gross: $37,384,046, closest - ichabod, $42.9 M)
Bridge to Terabithia $65.25 M
Invincible $45.5 M (current gross: $51,121,579, closest - Luke, $49 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (final gross: $42,647,449, closest - AwallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Eight Below $37.6 M (final gross: $81,612,565, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
Stick It $29.8 M (final gross: $26,910,736, closest - castleinthesky, $27 M)
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $8,503,500, closest - castleinthesky/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $9 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $4,649,125, closest - AwallaceUNC, $4.5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $8,503,500, closest - castleinthesky/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $9 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (final gross: $42,647,449, closest - AwallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $4,649,125, closest - AwallaceUNC, $4.5 M)
Eight Below $37.6 M (final gross: $81,612,565, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (final gross: $61,123,569, closest - Lucylover1986/Just Myself/lord-of-sith/Disneykid, $60 M)
The Wild $64.0 M (final gross: $37,384,046, closest - ichabod, $42.9 M)
Stick It $29.8 M ((final gross: $26,910,736, closest - castleinthesky, $27 M)
Cars $237.4 M (current gross: $243,067,357, closest - PatrickvD, $243 M)
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $321.6 M (current gross: $418,423,124, closest - Timon/Pumbaa fan and Disney Duster, $400 M)
Invincible $45.5 M (current gross: $51,121,579, closest - Luke, $49 M)

The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause $114.6 M

Bridge to Terabithia $65.25 M
Meet the Robinsons $131.6 M


While I can't necessarily agree with PatrickvD that everything branded Disney since <i>Chicken Little</i> has been a hit, I think we all should give him credit for being so dang accurate on <i>Cars</i>. Look at that prediction! It probably has some more business to do in the cheap theaters, but even so, it looks like he's got the top-spot locked. Job well done!

With the rest of 2006 so light, we might as well start taking predictions for <a href="http://www.ultimatedisney.com/intheater ... <b>Pirates of the Caribbean 3</b></a> and <a href="http://www.ultimatedisney.com/intheater ... lle</b></a>. They're a long ways off, but revisions can always be made up through the day before release.

[Just Myself]

Whoops.... Went to make a new post and instead edited this one. On to page 15!

Cheers,
JM

[kbehm29]

Please change my prediction for Bridge to Terabithia to 68 million.

I'll throw in an initial prediction for Ratatouille at 220 million.

And my guess for Pirates 3 is 375 million.

Thanks!

[ichabod]

Hmm, predictions, predictions!

Santa Clause 3 $75.2 mil

Bridge to Terabithia $64.9 mil

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $455.7 mil

Ratatouille $215.8 mil

[PatrickvD]

lol, thanks Luke... part of me hopes it won't make much more money, because I'm spot on right now.

on the other hand, I LOVED the film and think it deserves millions more