Predict how much the 2006 Disney films will earn

[Luke]

Yes, <i>Goal</i> has long been declared a Touchstone film, but curiously, it was re-rated from its original PG-13 cut (that was shown in Europe last year) to obtain a PG. Why that would be done and not for release under the "Disney" banner is puzzling. <i>Hitchhiker's</i> hasn't really been treated like a Disney film beyond being treated to preorders (and lithos?) from DisneyDirect.com, but I guess that's still more than your typical Touchstone film. I'm not sure if <i>Goal</i> was ever actually intended to be a Walt Disney Pictures release. Some of the division shifts (like <i>National Treasure</i> and <i>Hitchhiker's</i>) are absolutely observable from posters and ads showing a different studio, whereas others could be attributed to early reports that simply don't distinguish between "Disney" the company and "Disney" the studio banner.

[Luke]

Well, not unlike <i>The Shaggy Dog</i>, which also had a lower-than-expected opening weekend, <i>The Wild</i> enjoyed a super-small drop in its second weekend. According to estimates at Box Office Mojo, <i>The Wild</i> grossed another $8 million, falling only 16.9%. It has already passed <i>Valiant</i> and its second weekend gross was on par with <i>Home on the Range</i> (though it remains $6 million behind that 2004 flop's first 10-day gross). <i>The Shaggy Dog</i> reverted to a normal drop in its 3rd weekend and then began to fall hard with the release of <i>Ice Age 2</i>. I don't think <i>The Wild</i> has much direct competition until <i>Cars</i> (well, maybe <i>RV</i> too), but at the same time, I don't expect it to hold up as well as it did this weekend. Still, $40 M seems quite possible. So my original prediction won't be <i>too</i> far off, I hope!

[NarniaDis]

Why is HOTR considered a flop? No it didn't reach the hights of Previous films, but it Certaintly did better that TP. $50m is not a number to sneeze at, as lots of films would LOVE to make that much.

NarniaDIs

[Luke]

$50m is not a number to sneeze at, as lots of films would LOVE to make that much.

Not with a reported budget of $110 million, they wouldn't....

Yes, that's less than <i>Treasure Planet</i> and the film grossed more, but not enough to qualify it as anything but a flop.

[kbehm29]

Still, $40 M seems quite possible. So my original prediction won't be <i>too</i> far off, I hope!

I really hope so. I just think the whole situation is such a shame. I've been recommending the movie to many people...and in fact - I was going to take my oldest kids to see Stick It next weekend, but I may just go see The Wild again instead.

[Luke]

Dang! I was intending to predict <i>Stick It</i> and now it's after midnight. This won't count, but I would have gone with <b>$25 M</b>.

[Luke]

Sort of glad I missed the deadline. <b><i>Stick It</b></i> grossed $11.25 M over the weekend, according to Box Office Mojo estimates, which puts it on track for quite a bit more than $25 M.

[MickeyMousePal]

Revised Predictions

Cars $195 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $315 M
Invincible $70 M
The Santa Clause 3 $155 M
Meet the Robinsons $125 M

[NarniaDis]

The Wild finally is biting the dust. Just $4.7m for the weekend, at this rate it may tie TP at the BO, I had hoped to see atleast $40m before it ends, but it needs 12m more, and it just won't make it.

Oh well...

Cheers to Cars and PoTC2...

NarniaDis

[NarniaDis]

Glory Road closed this week.

Also has TW passed TP total or not yet? (34.4m)

If it had a couple more weeks to itself, it might reach $40m but with Over the Hedge coming next week...

Anyway just a few weeks till Cars hits the theaters and then We should be off and running.

NarniaDis

[castleinthesky]

Revised Predicts:
Cars $240 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $320 M
Invincible $ 30 M
The Santa Clause 3 $102 M

Meet the Robinsons $170 M

[Luke]

<font color="#ED9205"><b>Glory Road</b></font>
Opened January 13, 2006. Closed May 2006.

Final Gross: $42,647,449
Average Prediction: $41,246,154
Closest Prediction: $44,600,000 by AwallaceUNC (95.42% accurate)

Rest of predictions:
2) NarniaDis/Timon/Pumbaa fan/MickeyMousePal - $45 M (94.5% accurate)
5) Jake Lipson - $40 M (93.8% accurate)
6) pinkrenata - $37.5 M (87.9% accurate)
7) Jack/TheLittleMerman - $51 M (80.4% accurate)
9) creid - $52 M (78.1% accurate)
10) PatrickvD - $54 M (73.4% accurate)
11) castleinthesky - $55 M (71.0% accurate)
12) lord-of-sith/Wonderlicious/cydney - $30 M (70.3% accurate)
15) Mushu - $55.7 M (69.4% accurate)
16) Luke/Lucylover1986/I Am The Doctor - $60 M (59.3% accurate)
19) ichabod - $25.1 M (58.9% accurate)
20) Just Myself/Prince Eric - $25 M (58.6% accurate)
22) yankees/SofaKing38122 - $22 M (51.6% accurate)
24) 2099net - $21.5 M (50.4% accurate)
25) TaleAsOldAsTime - $21 M (49.2% accurate)
26) Bill W - $65 M (47.6% accurate)
<hr>That is as close to the average prediction as any film we've dealt with, as far as I know. Not sure if BOM has ceased tracking <i>Narnia</i> or not. No "Close Date" appears for it, yet it doesn't show up in the weekend chart.

I'm making a prediction of $80 on <i>Meet the Robinsons</i>, $290 on <i>Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest</i>, and $85 on <i>The Santa Clause 3</i>. These and all others up to this point are reflected in the updated chart below.

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $315.6 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $291,710,957, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Cars $240.3 M
Meet the Robinsons $132.7 M
The Santa Clause 3 $119.4 M
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (current gross: $57,504,769, closest - PatrickvD, $58 M)
The Wild $65.6 M (current gross: $34,355,644, closest - Timon/Pumbaa fan, $29 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (final gross: $42,647,449, closest - AwallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Invincible $39.8 M
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $81,377,070, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
Stick It $29.8 M (current gross: $22,145,314, closest - pinkrenata, $23.3 M)

Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,821,873, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $3,210,414, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,821,873, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $291,710,957, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (final gross: $42,647,449, closest - AwallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $3,210,414, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $81,377,070, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (current gross: $57,504,769, closest - PatrickvD, $58 M)
The Wild $64.0 M (current gross: $34,355,644, closest - Timon/Pumbaa fan, $29 M)
Stick It $29.8 M (current gross: $22,145,314, closest - pinkrenata, $23.3 M)[/color]

Cars $240.3 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $315.6 M
Invincible $39.8 M
The Santa Clause 3 $119.4 M

Meet the Robinsons $132.7 M

[AwallaceUNC]

Hooray! Now I feel vindicated for only coming in at 2nd on Chicken Little.

Revised Prediction
Meet the Robinsons - $180 million

-Aaron

[NarniaDis]

Narnia was on BOM weekend chart... all the way at the bottom made about $1000 for the weekend. Wouldn't suprise me if it closed on Thurs.

Thanks for the update Luke, nice to see I tied for 2nd on my first movie, of course, that doesn't make up for the rest of my crappy guesses so far this year.

NarniaDis

[Bill W]

Looks like I was really off on Glory Road (last). But I'm closest for Eight Below, but still pretty far off.

Revised Prediction:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: $250 million

After seeing the trailer, I'm thinking it looks a little hokey.

[Luke]

A slight <b>Santa Clause 3</b> revision after seeing the trailer: $90.

[Timon/Pumbaa fan]

After going to the Disney Store yesterday and seeing that 25% of the store was advertising "Cars", I'm going change may Cars prediction to: $208 million.

[PatrickvD]

revising prediction on Disney's two big guns for the summer

Cars $243 million

I don't see it becoming bigger than The Incredibles, too much crappy CGI has been shoved down our throats audiences have become unsure, but since this is Pixar it will still impress. The main reason why I think it won't be huge is Over the Hedge, it has the best reviews for a non-Shrek Dreamworks film and still didn't impress. In fact, it did less than Chicken Little.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $456 million

After the second trailer, I've become positive this film will make a lot of money. It has everything, the SFX, the 3 popular leading actors (of wich two have become oscar nominees since the original Pirates) colorful villains and the fact that it's a sequel to a surprise Box Office hit.

oh and the fact that this is the film everyone is talking about. I'm not gonna make the mistake by thinking Superman will be the biggest summer movie, that one has King Kong written all over it. Pirates has family event written all over it... kinda like Shrek 2. It will literally appeal to all ages.

but then I could be wrong

[cydney]

I need to get my predictions in on the movies coming out this year.

Cars $190 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $309 M
Invincible $32 M
The Santa Clause 3 $92 M

Meet the Robinsons $120 M

[kbehm29]

A slight <b>Santa Clause 3</b> revision after seeing the trailer: $90.

I couldn't find your original prediction. Did you raise or lower it? I saw the trailer as well, when I saw Over the Hedge this weekend. I thought it looked pretty good. It seems like an interesting twist to the series. My kids all asked me if I was going to take them to see that after the trailer was over.