Predict how much the 2006 Disney films will earn

[Bill W]

Ok, here are the rest of my predictions now that I've had some time to look at BoxOfficeMoJo and make some comparisons:

Glory Road: $65 M
(Hoosiers did $29 M 20 years ago, Remember the Titans did $115 with a fall release, Miracle did $65 M with a Feb release)

Roving Mars: $5 M
(shootin' from the hip on this one)

Eight Below: $60 M
(If snow dogs can do $81 M and the Pacifier can do $113 M, than Paul Walker and some dogs can do $60 M in February)

The Shaggy Dog: $85 M
(Tim Allen should carry this, but not as far as his Santa Clause Movies that grossed about $140 M each)

The Wild: $100 M
(If Disney drops the ball on this one like they did Valiant, it could be a bomb, but not too many computer-animated films have done less than $100. Plus, this has Jim Belushi, who has some star power)

Stick It!: $20 M
(Ice Princess only earned $24 M, but this one is more mature and doesn't have the magic word ("Princess") in the title)

Cars: $300 M
(Nemo did $340 in the summer, The Incredibles did $260 in the winter. Plus, Cars is about auto racing. Isn't NASCAR supposedly the most popular sport in the country?)

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: $325 M
(The first one did $305 M and this should do a little better)

Invincible: $60 M
(The Rookie did $75 M and this should be similar)

The Santa Clause 3: $125
(The first two did about $140 M each. This will be a little less because they are milking the franchise dry)

Meet the Robinson: $125 M
(Chicken Little is at $132 and there appears to be a lot of computer-animated movies coming out in the fall)

[ichabod]

The deadline was yesterday and seeing as how you would have had six hours in today that could still be considered "yesterday" for us folk,

Well, I didn't really understand a word of that, but since your the boss I'll take your word that you know what you're talking about

[AwallaceUNC]

The more I talk to people, the more I realize that there are a lot of folks who are pumped about Glory Road. Maybe I should have gone with a higher estimate. Oh well. I would like to see this movie do well. Maybe we can have a thread for predicting which 2006 sports dramas will one day be re-released on DVD in the form of a director's cut.

-Aaron

[Luke]

My thinking is that if <i>Coach Carter</i> could earn $66 million in the same weekend before, this one has the box office magic that is Bruckheimer behind it and even if it fits the mold of <i>Remember the Titans</i> sans star, it should finish pretty close to that. Seems like for quite some time I was the only one who thought that, but lots of predictions as high or near mine have come in the past few days. We will see.

[Luke]

Now that <i>Stick It</i> will definitely be Touchstone and we know that more than three months before its release, feel free not to predict for it. I'll still count predictions since people already put thought into them and since early literature did suggest this would be a Walt Disney Pictures release, but just an FYI. www.TouchstonePictures.com has the trailer up for it and it is set for release on April 28th.

That means there will be an even ten "Walt Disney Pictures" movies released to theaters this year.

[PatrickvD]

I'm revising my predictions a little. New year, enw thread, new predictions:

Roving Mars $4 million
Eight Below $19 million
The Shaggy Dog $58 million
The Wild $23 million
Stick It! $26 million
Cars $301 million
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $421 million
Invincible $28 million
The Santa Clause 3 $171 million
Meet the Robinsons $112 million

[PatrickvD]

Stick it should'nt be compared to Ice Princess or any of those movies. This looks more like Mean Girls, if it's as smart and funny as that one it could go as high as $85 million. Right now I'm gonna say:

Stick it $71 million

[Luke]

Eking out the top spot, <i>Glory Road</i> makes the third consecutive Walt Disney Pictures release to open as the #1 film at the box office.

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $313.7 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $264,020,859, closest - 2099net, $263 M)
Cars $234.2 M
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $133,235,508 M, closest - eatmorechiken, $133.4 M)
Meet the Robinsons $141.1 M
The Santa Clause 3 $131.6 M
The Shaggy Dog $74.8 M
The Wild $72.1 M
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $16,927,589, closest - TaleAsOldAsTime, $21 M)
Eight Below $36.0 M
Invincible $35.2 M
Stick It $29.75 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,578,387, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,578,387, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $133,235,508 M, closest - eatmorechiken, $133.4 M)
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $264,020,859, closest - 2099net, $263 M)
Glory Road $30.9 M (current gross: $16,927,589, closest - TaleAsOldAsTime, $21 M)

Roving Mars $7.5 M
Eight Below $36.0 M
The Shaggy Dog $74.8 M
The Wild $72.1 M
Stick It $29.75 M
Cars $234.2 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $313.7 M
Invincible $35.2 M
The Santa Clause 3 $131.6 M
Meet the Robinsons $141.1 M

[Luke]

Just a last-minute reminder that there's about one hour left to make and/or revise predictions on <i>Roving Mars</i>, the latest little IMAX film from Walt Disney Pictures, which opens in a few hours.

[creid]

Luke,

Thanx for moving the total grosses. I could not make heads or tails of which would be 2005 and 2006. I fill in the rest later.

Glory Road (January 13) $52M
Roving Mars (January 27) $7M
Eight Below (February 17)
The Shaggy Dog (March 10) $92M
The Wild (April 14)
Stick It! (Spring - TBA)
Cars (June 9) $275M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (July 7) $180M
Invincible (Fall - TBA)
The Santa Clause 3 (November 3)
Meet the Robinsons (December 15)

[PatrickvD]

edit: never mind I was too late. so my Roving Mars prediction stays at $4 million, perhaps it's good to stick with the first prediction... maybe not, we'll see

[Luke]

Were you editing up or down, Patrick? I have no doubt that this will likely be Disney's least-grossing IMAX movie to date. Actually, <i>Sacred Planet</i> appears to already have that distinction with $1.1 M. But if <i>Mars</i> reaches my prediction, it will be their second-lowest. If <i>Aliens of the Deep</i> could manage only $7.6 M in a year with James Cameron behind it, I don't know how much business this one can summon up beyond the typical school/industry viewership that scientific IMAX films generate. But at the same time, IMAX films I haven't even heard of with smaller studios behind them, have done nearly $5 M or more, like <i>Alien Adventure</i>, <i>Magnificent Desolation</i>, and <i>Wolves</i>. In any event, <i>Mars</i> will probably still be playing a year from now, so tracking it won't provide instant gratification the way opening weekend numbers usually do.

[PatrickvD]

I was gonna edit to $6 M, because I felt I was a little bit on the low side. But it's true that Disney's Imax movies haven't been doing that much business.

On the other hand, Imax broke attendace records in 2005, of course due to all the Warner Bros films like Harry Potter, Batman and Charlie and the Chocolat Factory. So I thought maybe $4 M is too low. But then Roving Mars doesn't fall in that category so it's not a good comparison.

Do numbers come out on monday with the actuals or with the weekend estimates? Because an opening weekend this small often doesn't show up in the estimates. Then again, it is a new release.

[Luke]

Do numbers come out on monday with the actuals or with the weekend estimates? Because an opening weekend this small often doesn't show up in the estimates. Then again, it is a new release.

It may or may not show up in the Estimates for its opening weekend, but it will definitely be in the Actuals on Monday afternoon. That's consistently been the case for <i>Aliens of the Deep</i>, but I think it initially appeared in the Sunday afternoon Estimates for a little while first.

[PatrickvD]

well, the estimates answered my question:

New Entry Roving Mars - $397,000 - $14,703

0.4 Million... if it makes ten times its opening weekend my prediction will be right on target

[Luke]

In the same number of theaters on the same weekend last year, <i>Aliens of the Deep</i> took in $479,368. In 97 theaters back in April 2003, <i>Ghosts of the Abyss</i> earned $1,408,474. Draw whatever conclusions you'd like, but it looks certain that <i>Mars</i> will at the very least outperform <i>Sacred Planet</i>, which totalled $1.1 M, a little less than 3x <i>Mars</i>' opening weekend take.

[NarniaDis]

After watching the past weeks as Glory Road has struggled some what, I am changing my Prediction for Eight Below:

*****

Eight Below - $27m.

I can't remember what I had before and don't have the time to look for it now but here is my new one

NarniaDis

[NarniaDis]

Also Luke, When are you going to update?

Thanks

[lord-of-sith]

Roving Mars (January 27) 5 mil
Eight Below (February 17) 26 mil
The Shaggy Dog (March 10) 60 mil
The Wild (April 14) 50 mil
Stick It! (Spring - TBA)
Cars (June 9) 160 mil
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (July 7) 370 mil
Invincible (Fall - TBA)
The Santa Clause 3 (November 3) 110 mil
Meet the Robinsons (December 15) 80 mil

[NarniaDis]

And While I'm At it....

SHAGGY DOG - $75m

STICK IT - $25m

THE WILD - $55

CARS - $200

PoTC2 - $350

INVINCILBE - $45

SANTA CLAUSE 3 - $130

MEET THE ROBINSONS - $85