2008 Disney Box Office Discussion

[kbehm29]

Data Updated 1-27-09

Compact View:
Hannah 3D $65,281,781
College Road Trip $45,610,425
Prince Caspian $141,621,490
Wall-E $223,808,164
Beverly Hills Chihuahua $94,408,857 and counting
Morning Light $275,497
High School Musical 3 $90,535,406 and counting
NBC Re-Release $1,109,188
Bolt $112,818,114 and counting
Bedtime Stories $107,600,474 and counting

We used to have a yearly thread where we would predict and discuss yearly Box Office amounts for Disney movies. I believe this thread ended when Luke couldn't invest the time for a thread with not enough people interested or posting.

I'd like to pick it up for 2008:

Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour
Theatrical Release 2-1-08 (Closed 5-15-08 / Stayed in release for 15 weeks)
Opening Weekend Gross: $31,117,834 (47.7%)
Final Domestic Box Office Gross: $65,281,781 CLOSED
Final World Box Office Gross: $70,557,125 CLOSED
DVD Rental Gross: Released on 8-19-08 / Week1=#25 / Week2=#29 / Week3=#31 / Week4=#36 / Week5=#44
DVD Sale Gross: Released on 8-19-08 / Week1=#3
Rotten Tomatoes Rating: 73% Fresh
My Rating: N/A

College Road Trip
Theatrical Release 3-7-08 (Closed 7-31-08 / Stayed in release for 21 weeks)
Opening Weekend Gross: $13,601,419 (29.8%)
Final Domestic Box Office Gross: $45,610,425 CLOSED
Final World Box Office Gross: $50,971,057 CLOSED
DVD Rental Gross: Released on 7-15-08 / Week1=#3 / Week2=#4 / Week3=#7 / Week4=#8 / Week5=#10 / Week6=#16 / Week7=#19 / Week8=#24 / Week9=#28 / Week10=#36 / Week11=#41 / Week12=#45 / Week13=#45 (It stayed on the top 50 chart for a LONG time!)
DVD Sale Gross:
Rotten Tomatoes Rating: 13% Rotten
My Rating: C+

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Theatrical Release 5-16-08 (Closed 9-4-08 / Stayed in release for 16 weeks)
Opening Weekend Gross: $55,034,805 (38.9%)
Current Domestic Box Office Gross: $141,621,490 CLOSED
Current World Box Office Gross: $419,649,113 CLOSED
DVD Rental Gross: Released on 12-02-08 / Week1=#4 / Week2=#6 / Week3=#10 / Week4=#13 / Week5=#20 / Week6=#26
DVD Sale Gross: Released on 12-02-08
Rotten Tomatoes Rating: 66% Fresh
My Rating: A-

WALL-E
Theatrical Release 6-27-08 (Closed 1-8-09 / Stayed in release for an amazing 28 weeks)
Opening Weekend Gross: $63,087,526 (28.2%)
Current Domestic Box Office Gross: $223,808,164 CLOSED
Current World Box Office Gross: $531,025,081
DVD Rental Gross: Released on 11-18-08 / Week1=#2 / Week2=#3 / Week3=#8 / Week4=#10 / Week5=#17 / Week6=#19 / Week7=#26 / Week8=#32
DVD Sale Gross: Released on 11-18-08
Rotten Tomatoes Rating: 96% Fresh (wow!)
My Rating: A+

Beverly Hills Chihuahua
Theatrical Release 10-03-08
Opening Weekend Gross: $29,300,465 (31.2%)
Stayed at #1 for 2 weeks
Current Domestic Box Office Gross: $93,778,953
Current World Box Office Gross: $117,639,793
Rotten Tomatoes Rating: 41% Rotten
My Rating: B+

High School Musical 3: Senior Year
Theatrical Release 10-24-08
Opening Weekend Gross: $42,030,184 (46.6%)
Stayed at #1 for 2 Weeks
Current Domestic Box Office Gross: $90,224,290
Current World Box Office Gross: $241,234,695
Rotten Tomatoes Rating: 67% Fresh
My Rating: B (much better than HSM2, definitely)

Tim Burton's Nightmare Before Christmas 3D
Theatrical Re-release 10-24-08
Opening Weekend Gross: $398,411
Current Domestic Box Office Gross: $1,109,188 CLOSED

Bolt
Theatrical Release 11-21-08
Opening Weekend Gross: $26,223,128 (23.8%)
Current Domestic Box Office Gross: $110,116,220
Current World Box Office Gross: $156,569,547
Rotten Tomatoes Rating: 85% Fresh
My Rating: B+

Bedtime Stories
Theatrical Release 12-25-08
Opening Weekend Gross: $28,069,000 (31.7%)
Current Domestic Box Office Gross: $86,578,937
Current World Box Office Gross: $98,427,899
Rotten Tomatoes Rating: 22% Rotten
My Rating: TBD

I have found (obviously) that the more a movie grosses on it's opening weekend, the better the movie does overall. Hence, since I go see all Disney movies in theaters anyway, I try my absolute hardest to go see it on opening weekend.

Based on the above listed, I am very surprised that Prince Caspian is being opened when it is. I think it would do much better being released around Christmas time. I am most excited for Prince Caspian, WALL-E, and Bolt - all of which I hope do really well for Disney.

If anyone has any commentary or guesses on how well the above movies should do, I would appreciate hearing it!

[kbehm29]

The opening of Prince Caspian is only 3 weeks away. Anyone care to guess what the opening weekend gross will be?

The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe opened at $65,556,312. I'm guessing that because of the release switch from the Holiday Season to late spring, the unfamiliarity with the second book vs. the popularity of the previous released book, and also the fan base from how great the first movie was that it will open somewhere around $53M. I could be way off. I hope it's more than $65M, but I am not confident about that.

Edited to say that I just watched the new trailer and it looks absolutely incredible. I hope Disney is able to bring in a lot of business for this movie so they continue on with the series.

[Kendris]

The opening of Prince Caspian is only 3 weeks away. Anyone care to guess what the opening weekend gross will be?

The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe opened at $65,556,312. I'm guessing that because of the release switch from the Holiday Season to late spring, the unfamiliarity with the second book vs. the popularity of the previous released book, and also the fan base from how great the first movie was that it will open somewhere around $53M. I could be way off. I hope it's more than $65M, but I am not confident about that.

Edited to say that I just watched the new trailer and it looks absolutely incredible. I hope Disney is able to bring in a lot of business for this movie so they continue on with the series.

I think that the Prince Caspian movie may do a little better overall than The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe. I'm excited about it. I just am interested in seeing what happens next, which is what I think will bring in other people. I hope that this one is very successful. The next Chronicles of Narnia movie (The Voyage of the Dawn Treader) comes out in 2010. I would like them to countinue until they finish out the series.

[rs_milo_whatever]

I say that Caspian will do somewhere around the same as The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe did; the first time around Narnia did so well, people who didn't get to watch it on theaters saw it either on DVD or on TV later on, so i guess more people are interested in seeing the next installment (which generally happens in every movie series); but at the same time its being released at such a hectic time, most people (or target audiences) are busy this time a year, we have finals to take, college aplications to fill, graduations, proms, class trips to plan, and that's just the high school crowd; anyhow, I can't say it will do so much better or so much worse at this time mainly because of these two factors and its so early to say, but I don't think the latter will affect the profits dramatically...we'll just wait and see.


If it is affected badly...serves Disney right for making us wait so long

[jediliz]

well, it won't have to compete that weekend with IJ4: He's too OLD for this.......and that other film will definitely be PG-13.

I'd say at least 60 Million. Then it'll pick up on Memorial Day weekend. There might be a back and forth competition between PC and IJ4.

Even though I have an open house for a (my dad's cousin's sons -- 2nd cousins once removed?) relatives graduation that day it opens, I told my dad we're going to the earliest show possible.

I saw the new trailer last night and it looks awesome!

[Widdi]

My predictions for how the year will shape up box-office wise (North American Only).

1. Wall - E - 275-315 Million.
2. Prince Caspian - 200-225 Million.
3. High School Musical 3 - 150-190 Million.
4. Bolt - 75-150 Million.
5. Bedtime Stories - 45-115 Million
6. Hannah Montana - 63 Million
7. College Road Trip - 43 Million
8. Beverly Hills Chihuahua 15-32 Million

[kbehm29]

Comingsoon.net is predicting that Prince Caspian will earn 81.6 million opening weekend.

I hope it's not as bad as some of the early reviewers are reporting. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal gave it a good review. 3 out of 4 stars.

[kbehm29]

Prince Caspian is currently 67% fresh on rottentomatoes.com.

I saw it last night and LOVED it. I wasn't a huge fan of this particular book, and the movie does a lot with the material provided. I can't wait to see it again. It was everything I had anticipated. I honestly like the book of The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe better than the movie. I like the movie of Prince Caspian better than the book.

[kbehm29]

I'm now guessing that, unless this movie has extremely long legs, we're looking at no more than $185M domestic for Prince Caspian.
That's a shame if it happens.

I've seen it twice now, and although my husband didn't like it as much as I do - I still maintain that it is a great movie.

[Kendris]

I read in an article that Disney says that the reason for Prince Caspian not doing as well as they expected at the box office is bad timing. Indy and Iron Man were released around the time Caspian was.

I haven't seen it yet. I was waiting on the hubby because he wants to see it too.

Here is the article: http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/va/2008 ... 46600.html

[chadhobbick]

So why did Disney movie Prince Caspian to that slot instead of releasing it in November or December? I'm guessing dvd sales have something to do w/it, but come on when placing a movie you look at the other movies opening on and around that date, Iron Man has had huge buzz for at least a year and Indy, are you freaking kidding me? The movie has done well as we have seen, but Disney has nobody to blame but themselves for this gafe but it's nice to see they recognize that other movies were the reason and not saying the movie was sub-par.

I remember when the HP movies were released only around Christmas time, then they mucked it around and now the movies are all over the place it seems when they are released. I wish they would have just stuck it out and kept them around the Nov/Dec months, but alas i'm sure dvd sales are the reason for the summer releases now.

[kbehm29]

10 days until the release of WALL-E.

Anyone care to venture a guess to opening weekend US box office gross?

I'm hoping it's close to $70M.

[drfsupercenter]

Somehow I'd be willing to guess that WALL-E won't do as well as other Pixar movies.

I saw the previews and though WALL-E seemed like a stupid movie... I'm a huge fan of space technology (and actually did several research project topics on space exploration) but a movie about a robot that just does stuff seems dumb to me.

[jediliz]

Its more than that - have you seen any of the other televsion spots / trailers? Or just the teaser?

Its G Rated, its Pixar and its Disney -- At least $60 Million opening weekend.

And it doesn't have to compete with any big movies that are opening the same weekend Some movies will be starting to finish their runs by then, like Iron Man.


I know my sister's kids want to see Wall-E and I think my brother's girls want to see it, too.


Kit Kittredge, a non-Disney movie, opens a few days later and that's another 'G' movie.

[kbehm29]

Official projection from Comingsoon.net:

<<Why I Should See It: Pixar Animation is back, this time with another early idea that's been gestating in development for years, but also one that should appeal equally to sci-fi and "Star Wars" fans as well as the normal kids and parents that flock to these things.

Why Not: How much time can someone watch a movie with robots who barely talk before getting bored?

Projections: $69 to 73 million opening and $280 million total. >>

[jediliz]

box office nojo reports it made 62 Million.

[kbehm29]

From Box Office Mojo:

Rank / Title / Studio Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Date
1 Finding Nemo BV $339,714,978 3,425 $70,251,710 3,374 5/30/03
2 The Incredibles BV $261,441,092 3,933 $70,467,623 3,933 11/5/04
3 Monsters, Inc. BV $255,873,250 3,649 $62,577,067 3,237 11/2/01
4 Toy Story 2 BV $245,852,179 3,257 $300,163 1 11/19/99
5 Cars BV $244,082,982 3,988 $60,119,509 3,985 6/9/06
6 WALL-E BV $223,749,872 3,992 $63,087,526 3,992 6/27/08
7 Ratatouille BV $206,445,654 3,940 $47,027,395 3,940 6/29/07
8 Toy Story BV $191,796,233 2,574 $29,140,617 2,457 11/22/95
9 A Bug's Life BV $162,798,565 2,773 $291,121 1 11/20/98


Wall-E has closed in on Ratatouille to claim spot #6 in Pixar's lineup. Wall-E beat Ratatouille, but matching Cars box office is doubtful.

World Total Box Office Grosses:
1. Finding Nemo $864,625,978
2. The Incredibles $631,442,092
3. Ratatouille $621,421,108
4. Monsters Inc. $525,366,597
5. Wall-E $495,508,415
6. Toy Story 2 $485,015,179
7. Cars $461,982,881
8. A Bug's Life $363,398,565
9. Toy Story $361,958,736

Wow - the world totals paint a different picture!

[kbehm29]

1 The Dark Knight WB $530,723,626 4,366 $158,411,483 4,366 7/18 -
2 Iron Man Par. $318,313,199 4,154 $98,618,668 4,105 5/2 10/2
3 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Par. $317,023,851 4,264 $100,137,835 4,260 5/22 -
4 Hancock Sony $227,946,274 3,965 $62,603,879 3,965 7/2 9/7
5 WALL-E BV $223,749,872 3,992 $63,087,526 3,992 6/27 -
6 Kung Fu Panda P/DW $215,434,591 4,136 $60,239,130 4,114 6/6 10/9


Above is Wall-E vs. Kung Fu Panda for 2008 Box Office yearly total.

PLEASE for the love of all things let Wall-E beat Kung Fu Panda.

Update (8/13/2008) : ......ALMOST......there........!
Update (8/16/2008) : YES!!!!!!!!!
Update (8/22/2008) : It's not going to reach Hancock.

[kbehm29]

My predictions for how the year will shape up box-office wise (North American Only).

1. Wall - E - 275-315 Million.
2. Prince Caspian - 200-225 Million.
3. High School Musical 3 - 150-190 Million.
4. Bolt - 75-150 Million.
5. Bedtime Stories - 45-115 Million
6. Hannah Montana - 63 Million
7. College Road Trip - 43 Million
8. Beverly Hills Chihuahua 15-32 Million

Well, halfway through the year I'm finally going to reply to you!
1. Wall-E fell short of your expectations (thus far!)
2. Prince Caspian fell way short, unfortunately.
3. High School Musical - I think, and I could be wrong, that it will do at least that well if not better than your estimation.
4. Bolt - I'm hoping it at least is north of the 100 Million mark. Chicken Little did $135M and Meet the Robinsons did $97M.
5. Bedtime Stories - I just don't know enough about it yet, and that's not a good sign.
6. Hannah Montana - Just about right on the money!
7. College Road Trip added on a few extra million.
8. Beverly Hills Chihuahua - Surprisingly, I'm going to guess it does better than your estimation!

[PeterPanfan]

I think High School Musical 3 and Wall-E are going to be Disney's biggets money makers for 2008.