Predict how much the 2006 Disney films will earn

[Just Myself]

Looks like I might hit The Shaggy Dog right on its creepy Tim Allen eyed nose (wow, that didn't make sense). I way underpredicted on GR and EB.

The Wild - Average prediction $71 million? Are you kidding me? I'll be generous.

Opening Weekend: $8 million
Final: $30 million

Stick It! - Ih, looks okay, I always try and give the Bridges family a chance.

OW: $12 million
F: $45 million

Cars - Looks like another great Pixar film. Glad it won't be the last.

OW: $75 million
F: $315 million

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - This is a little tougher. If it's true to its roots and is PG-13, it will do well:

OW: $80 million
F: $330 million

If it's PG, it will do well, but not as well:

OW: $60 million
F: $290 million

Invincible - Mark Wahlberg + football = what should be a moderate sized hit.

OW: $20 million
F: $65 million

The Santa Clause 3 - Tim Allen returns as Santa? Martin Short as Old Man Winter? Where's the ticket line?

OW: $35 million
F: $115 million

Meet The Robinsons - An interesting sounding concept could equal a Chicken Little size hit.

OW: $30 million
F: Long legs lead it to $135 million.

[Luke]

I'm going to finally throw in some initial predictions for the following:

<b>The Wild</b> $45 M
<b>Cars</b> $305 M
<b>Invincible</b> $45 M

[memnv]

I think Cars will break the $300 Million mark
I think the Wild will do around $70 Mill

[ichabod]

I'm going to revise my prediction for The Wild to $42.9 mil

[NarniaDis]

Not exactly sure what to do now. I way over estimated on SD, and way below on EB. So will The Wild do well or not? Thinking...

Stick it may do well, it all depends, as for the wild, Remeber, IA2 is coming in 2 weeks and will probably still be doing solid at that time.

The Wild $65m for now

[kbehm29]

The good news is that there are no new 'family-friendly' movies opening yet again this weekend, so The Shaggy Dog is expected to stay strong at the #4 position with an additional 10M or so.

Question - Can anybody jump in at any time with predictions? Or did you have to be in it from the start? Thanks in advance.

[Luke]

Question - Can anybody jump in at any time with predictions? Or did you have to be in it from the start? Thanks in advance.

Anybody can jump in with predictions (well, once a movie opens, prediction time has ended), but in order to be considered for the yearly prize, they need to have made predictions for more than half of the films in the running.

[kbehm29]

Thanks, Luke.

In that case, here are my predictions for the remaining movies:

The Wild - $68.5M
Stick It - $26M
Cars - $195M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $278M
Invincible - $42M
The Santa Clause 3 - $101M

Meet the Robinsons - $117M

[MickeyMousePal]

Revised Predictions

The Wild $70 M
Stick It! $70 M
Cars $220 M
Invincible $85 M

[Timon/Pumbaa fan]

Okay I'll revise my predictions for the next 3 movies:

The Wild: $25

Oh, The Wild is going down! I mean it's only 3 weeks away and I've seen NO advertisments for this film. I think we can expect this year's Valiant!


Stick It: $30

Another sports movie + teenaged brats= NOT a good sign!

Cars: $198

It'll do better than Toy Story and ABL, but it won't do as well as the rest.

[SofaKing381222]

Updated...

The Wild- $65 million
Stick It!- $37 million
Cars- $212 million
Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest- $298 million
Invincible- $44 million
The Santa Clause 3- $112 million
Meet the Robinsons- $154 million

[kbehm29]

Bump.... The Wild's release is only one week away.

Also, Eight Below is at almost $80M and is (temporarily) the #2 movie of the year (until Ice Age surpasses it this week).

[kbehm29]

Okay I'll revise my predictions for the next 3 movies:
The Wild: $25
Oh, The Wild is going down! I mean it's only 3 weeks away and I've seen NO advertisments for this film. I think we can expect this year's Valiant!

Really? I see an ad for it at least once a day (on FOX, anyway) and on the Disney Channel all the time (of course). And I don't even watch that much TV.

[kbehm29]

I THINK Eight Below has ended it's theater run, since the latest information Box Office Mojo has for it is April 6th.

Domestic: $79,546,110 94.8%
+ Foreign: $4,322,000 5.2%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= Worldwide: $83,868,110

DOMESTIC SUMMARY
Opening Weekend: $20,188,176
Widest Release: 3,122 theaters
In Release: 49 days / 7 weeks


AND - The Wild opens this Friday.

[Karushifa]

Hmmmm...predictions, eh? Well, let's see now...

First, I think that PotC: Dead Man's Chest is going to be THE family movie of the summer. It's a hotly anticipated sequel to a very popular movie (with two actors who are HUGELY popular right now), and has even more cross-over appeal than the other family mega-franchise, Harry Potter (for example, my dad would not see HP but would definitely see PotC). I'd say it'll make a conservative $250 million domestic, with $300 million not out of the question.

Second...there is no way that Cars will make less than $200 million domestic, even if it's mediocre. Although it's in the softer Holiday season release window (which may have hurt The Incredibles' numbers a bit), it's still Pixar, so curiousity viewing alone should give it a good head start. And no Harry Potter this year to take away business.

Third...The Wild's success or un-success will depend largely on how well Disney markets it. Valiant's mediocrity probably hurt its later weeks in theaters, but the movie was marketed in such a low-key manner that opening weekend business was probably hurt as well. If Disney really pushes The Wild the right way, it should surpass Vailant's paltry $25 million...but, then again, if they bury it, then it will probably end up being another DVD moneymaker as opposed to a box office success.

[Mushu]

Well, since I forgot to make a prediction for The Shaggy Dog, I'm going to make a prediction for a few films now.

The Wild - 60.3 M

Stick It! - 38.4 M

Cars - 307.2 M

[Luke]

I THINK Eight Below has ended it's theater run, since the latest information Box Office Mojo has for it is April 6th.

They're likely done showing daily numbers, but it should still be tracked for several more weekends (with minor returns).

I'll try update the numbers this afternoon as we wind down towards the deadline of <i>The Wild</i>, which may be the biggest wildcard (no pun intended) thus far in predicting Disney box office performance.

It used to be CGI film = major promotion = major success. But <i>Valiant</i> and the Weinsteins' <i>Hoodwinked</i> and <i>Doogal</i> have shown that this isn't always going to be the case on films with smaller production and marketing budgets. It will be interesting to see how <i>The Wild</i> performs.

[ichabod]

I'll revise my prediction for 'The Wild' once more

the Wild: $58.9 mil

[Luke]

Well, since I forgot to make a prediction for The Shaggy Dog, I'm going to make a prediction for a few films now.

Actually, I had a prediction on <i>Shaggy</i> for you. Probably because we had it in the list for a long time, before most other 2006 releases.

Other prediction revisions up to this point have been noted.

[Karushifa]

Uh oh. It appears as if Toys 'R' Us (or, as my dad would say, "We 'b' Toys") is opting NOT to produce exclusive merchandise for The Wild (Attention Readers: this is a Jim Hill article, so read it with a grain of salt or as you would an editorial, which it is):

http://jimhillmedia.com/blogs/jim_hill/ ... /1765.aspx

Could Disney be trying to bury The Wild as they did Valiant? It's not all that clear for now, but I'd say if there turns out to be no Happy Meal tie-in for The Wild, the movie's pretty much dead in the water