Predict how much the 2006 Disney films will earn

NarniaDis · Post by **NarniaDis** » Sun Feb 26, 2006 2:43 pm

With the weekend est. in we have all for the most part been blown over by Eight Below.

Boxofficemojo has the Total as of today at 45m and it still will be strong for a couple of weeks.

NarniaDis

>>>>> This is the first weekend for Narnia: TLTW&TW to fall below 1m

NarniaDis · Post by **NarniaDis** » Sun Feb 26, 2006 3:16 pm

Also, may not be able to get near a computer for a couple of weeks so heres an early revision for SD

>>> The Shaggy Dog (2006) - Up - $100m

sorry to bug ya Luke about updating, looked at the date wrong on the last one and thought it had been longer.

NarniaDis

PatrickvD · Post by **PatrickvD** » Sun Feb 26, 2006 3:18 pm

At this rate, Eight Below has a shot at $100 million.... that's insane...

NarniaDis · Post by **NarniaDis** » Sun Feb 26, 2006 3:21 pm

You wouldn't have expected it but look at both Curious George & The Pink Panther, both are doing a lot more business than was expected as CG looks to take at least 80 & TPP at least 100 also. Just been a great month for family movies.

NarniaDis

Post by **Luke** » Tue Feb 28, 2006 5:12 pm

I'm thinking I need to up The Shaggy Dog based on Eight Below's numbers, but I'm still trying to figure out the logic to its success. Dogs? Snow? Good reviews? Paul Walker? The Shaggy Dog seems to have a really strong ad campaign, Tim Allen, and the fact that it is a remake going for it, plus it looks at least fairly funny. But then Herbie seemed to have all those things and Eight Below looks certain to surpass it.

Anyway, I've updated the following with the prediction revisions and the weekend grosses, plus Monday's take for Eight Below.

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $317.1 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $288,193,914, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Cars $227.8 M
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $134,637,797, closest - eatmorechiken, $133.4 M)
Meet the Robinsons $137.1 M
The Santa Clause 3 $128 M
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M
The Wild $71.0 M
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $41,992,769, closest - Jake Lipson, $40 M)
Invincible $35.6 M
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $46,062,323, closest - cydney, $45 M)
Stick It $29.0 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,690,085, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $1,699,168, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,690,085, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $134,637,797, closest - eatmorechiken, $133.4 M)
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $288,193,914, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $41,992,769, closest - Jake Lipson, $40 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $1,699,168, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $46,062,323, closest - cydney, $45 M)

The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M
The Wild $71.0 M
Stick It $29.0 M
Cars $227.8 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $317.1 M
Invincible $35.6 M
The Santa Clause 3 $128 M
Meet the Robinsons $137.1 M

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:32 pm

FYI - http://www.comingsoon.net reports that they expect The Shaggy Dog to open this weekend at #1 with approx. $20.5M.

They also gave it a very bad review.

http://www.comingsoon.net/weekendwarrior/2006/mar10.php

Post by **Luke** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 1:52 pm

No changed predictions make this easy to update, though I'm still having trouble figuring out how Eight Below is doing so well. I think Shaggy Dog will open with more than $20 million, but I guess I'll leave my prediction where it is. Remember that Thursday is the last day to change numbers for it and that you must do so in a new post.

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $317.1 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $288,795,853, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Cars $227.8 M
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $134,838,088, closest - eatmorechiken, $133.4 M)
Meet the Robinsons $137.1 M
The Santa Clause 3 $128 M
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M
The Wild $71.0 M
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $42,163,462, closest - Jake Lipson, $40 M)
Invincible $35.6 M
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $58,636,373, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
Stick It $29.0 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,704,977, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $1,887,222, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,704,977, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $134,838,088, closest - eatmorechiken, $133.4 M)
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $288,193,914, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $42,163,462, closest - Jake Lipson, $40 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $1,887,222, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $58,636,373, closest - Bill W, $60 M)

The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M
The Wild $71.0 M
Stick It $29.0 M
Cars $227.8 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $317.1 M
Invincible $35.6 M
The Santa Clause 3 $128 M
Meet the Robinsons $137.1 M

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 2:17 pm

Luke wrote:though I'm still having trouble figuring out how Eight Below is doing so well

Luke, have you gone to see it??? I was honestly amazed at how much better the movie was than I thought it was going to be. Or maybe it's just that I'm a dog-lover? I am thrilled that it is doing so well. I don't have such high hopes for The Shaggy Dog, though. I'm sure it will do OK, but it just won't be as good as Eight Below, I'm afraid.

By the way -- I love this thread....it's very interesting to me. I'm glad to see so many of the Disney movies doing so much better than predicted.

Edited to say, unfortunately it looks like you're going to have to take Meet the Robinsons off for this year.

MickeyMousePal · Post by **MickeyMousePal** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 2:24 pm

Luke Wrote:

No changed predictions make this easy to update, though I'm still having trouble figuring out how Eight Below is doing so well.

Well Luke everyone is a dog lover well execept those darn cat lovers.
Anyways I'm totally seeing The Shaggy Dog (2006) on Saturday and hopefully during spring break I can see Eight Below for a lower price on Monday-Thursday. I probably see it on a Thursday. I really think TSD is going to be a silly movie.

I guess I can watch UltraViolet and V for Vendetta later this month or on DVD.

Post by **Luke** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 2:26 pm

Don't get me wrong. I'm not doubting the movie is good. In fact, I'm pretty sure my previously low expectations will be met and surpassed when I eventually see it. I'm just at a loss to figure out what is getting people's butts in seats to see it. Just the individual "selling points" - the small human cast (made up of not exactly box office draws), the arctic setting, and the non-talking dogs all seem like elements that would put people off. I imagine good word-of-mouth must be one solid reason and a large theater count must be helping.

Films with the Disney name on them have fared pretty well lately. If The Shaggy Dog opens at #1, it will be the fifth straight 35 mm movie from Walt Disney Pictures to do so. (Roving Mars being the obvious and almost not worth mentioning exception.)

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 2:33 pm

Luke wrote:I'm just at a loss to figure out what is getting people's butts in seats to see it.

Well, the dog-lovers for one. Also, the opening scene starts with Paul Walker with his shirt off. One of my co-workers told me that information alone was enough to get her to plan on seeing the movie..... okay so chalk that one up to word-of-mouth.

I think Paul Walker is a big enough star to get non-dog-lovers to see it. One of my older sons knows him from The Fast and The Furious. That movie made him a pretty big star.

NarniaDis · Post by **NarniaDis** » Tue Mar 07, 2006 4:47 pm

Can't decide if I want to change my #s for SD or not. It's getting bad reviews left and right, but because there is no serious new family movie in the last week, it may still do well. Oh, well. By the way, does anyone here think that Superman/Pirates will hurt each other?

NarniaDis

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:19 am

OK - So The Shaggy Dog opened at #2 with 16M+

Question: Being that Eight Below was still at #6 with 5M, why does Disney compete against itself? That extra 5M might have gone to The Shaggy Dog if Eight Below had already run it's theater course.

ichabod · Post by **ichabod** » Mon Mar 13, 2006 11:35 am

Curses, my unexpected absence means i wasn't able to reduce my Shaggy Dog estimate!

Who knows, maybe It'll work out in my favour!

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Fri Mar 17, 2006 9:51 am

Wow! Eight Below is currently at $68M + and it's still the #5 movie. The Shaggy Dog is already at $20.5M+ and it's still the #2 movie.

It will be interesting to see how these two movies fare this weekend, with no new "family-friendly" movies coming out. I mean, it's a no-brainer that V for Vendetta will be #1, and probably She's The Man (PG-13) #2....but I'm hoping The Shaggy Dog will still stay up there at #3 or #4.

You know, it's really sad that I'm watching this so closely.

PatrickvD · Post by **PatrickvD** » Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:27 pm

kbehm29 wrote:Wow! Eight Below is currently at $68M + and it's still the #5 movie. The Shaggy Dog is already at $20.5M+ and it's still the #2 movie.

It will be interesting to see how these two movies fare this weekend, with no new "family-friendly" movies coming out. I mean, it's a no-brainer that V for Vendetta will be #1, and probably She's The Man (PG-13) #2....but I'm hoping The Shaggy Dog will still stay up there at #3 or #4.

You know, it's really sad that I'm watching this so closely.

lol, no lots of people do. I hope Eight Below can go past $80 million.

Timon/Pumbaa fan · Post by **Timon/Pumbaa fan** » Fri Mar 17, 2006 2:44 pm

Wow, I honestly was expecting the other away around, The Shaggy Dog would have this much money while Eight Below would make below a decent gross!

Guess Tim Allen isn't as popular as he was in the 90's.

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Fri Mar 17, 2006 2:51 pm

Timon/Pumba fan wrote:Wow, I honestly was expecting the other away around, The Shaggy Dog would have this much money while Eight Below would make below a decent gross!

Well, The Shaggy Dog still has some time yet because it's only been out one week. Although, IMO, it's not going to gross as much as Eight Below after all is said and done. Even though The Shaggy Dog is entertaining and a good family movie, Eight Below is a better movie (again IMO).

Post by **Luke** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 9:57 am

The Shaggy Dog had the lowest drop (percentage-wise) of the year, while The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe passed Goblet of Fire for the claim of 2005's second highest grossing film domestically released in 2005. When BoxOfficeMojo posts the full numbers, I'll try to update this thread.

Post by **Luke** » Mon Mar 20, 2006 4:36 pm

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $317.1 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $289,847,008, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Cars $227.8 M
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $135,136,763, closest - eatmorechiken, $133.4 M)
Meet the Robinsons $137.1 M
The Santa Clause 3 $128.1 M
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (current gross: $35,635,419, closest - yankees, $36 M)
The Wild $71.0 M
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $42,303,527, closest - awallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Invincible $35.6 M
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $73,040,379, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
Stick It $29.0 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,736,858, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $2,222,035, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,736,858, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $135,136,763, closest - eatmorechiken, $133.4 M)
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $289,847,008, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $42,303,527, closest - awallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $2,222,035, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $73,040,379, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (current gross: $35,635,419, closest - yankees, $36 M)

The Wild $71.0 M
Stick It $29.0 M
Cars $227.8 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $317.1 M
Invincible $35.6 M
The Santa Clause 3 $128.1 M

Meet the Robinsons $137.1 M

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Predict how much the 2006 Disney films will earn