Predict how much the 2006 Disney films will earn

Post by **Luke** » Sat Apr 15, 2006 1:22 pm

Actually, just $4.14 M according to BOM.

To put it in comparison to other recent animated films' opening days:

Movie / Release Date / Opening Day Earnings / Per-Theater Average / Percent of Final Domestic Gross / Final Domestic Gross
Home on the Range / 4/2/05 / $3,965,000 / $1,301 / 7.93% / $50,030,461
The Incredibles / 11/5/04 / $20,503,078 / $5,213 / 7.84% / $261,441,092
Madagascar / 5/27/05 / $13,947,637 / $3,376 / 7.20% / $193,595,521
Valiant / 8/19/05 / $1,864,958 / $926 / 9.57% / $19,478,106
Corpse Bride / 9/23/05 (wide) / $6,700,175 / $2,091 / 12.56% / 53,359,111
Wallace & Gromit / 10/7/05 (wide) / $4,021,574 / $1,949 / 7.17% / $56,110,897
Chicken Little / 11/4/05 / $10,571,609 / $2,893 / 7.81% / $135,386,665
Hoodwinked / 1/13/06 / $2,665,057 / $2,259 / 5.22% / $51,063,358 (still playing)
Doogal / 2/24/06 / $873,608 / $377 / 11.78% / $7,417,319 (still playing)
The Wild / 4/14/06 / $4,140,000 (est.) / $1,451 (est.) / ? / ?

The gross on the first wide day of release of an animated film tends to be between 7 and 8% of the final domestic gross for a well-performing film. For ones considered to be flops (Valiant, Doogal) or cult attractions (Corpse Bride), that percentage raises a bit. If a film has better than expected legs, like Hoodwinked, then that percentage lowers. Anyway, it looks like unless The Wild has either extremely good or extremely bad legs (or a highly inaccurate Friday estimate), then it is destined to end up somewhere between $35 and $59 million. That's what many here seemed to predict, so it's not too surprising. But even if it has good legs, it will fall a bit short of the average prediction. I don't think my prediction will be too far off, but I shouldn't have raised it on the last day. Might have been right on the money if I hadn't.

Lucylover1986 · Post by **Lucylover1986** » Sat Apr 15, 2006 1:31 pm

That stinks. I really thought that it'd do better. I predicted $22 million opening weekend for the Box Office Mojo derby game so I'm screwed.

AwallaceUNC · Post by **AwallaceUNC** » Sat Apr 15, 2006 1:34 pm

It's still doing better than Home on the Range

-Aaron

Post by **Luke** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 12:50 pm

Wow, Box Office Mojo has posted weekend estimates and have The Wild pegged at $9,559,000. That leads me to wonder if either this or the Friday estimate is off, as a 2.3 multiplier is fairly weak for a family movie. Then again, I guess many kids were off from school on Good Friday and might have been more likely to see a movie then, but this is still about half of what the most conservative estimates were forecasting for the weekend. Definitely shouldn't have raised my guess on Thursday, but at least I won't fare as poorly as those who predicted in the neighborhood of $100 million or so (which doesn't seem that unreasonable at all based on the theater count and CGI's once-spotless track record).

The bad news (or good news, depending on your stance) is that it's no longer doing better than Home on the Range. As for good news, it's already passed Doogal!

To once again put it in comparison with those other recent animated films' opening weekends:

Movie / Release Date / Opening Weekend Earnings / Per-Theater Average / Percent of Final Domestic Gross / Final Domestic Gross
Home on the Range / 4/2/04 / $13,880,471 / $4,555 / 27.74% / $50,030,461
The Incredibles / 11/5/04 / $70,467,623 / $17,917 / 26.95% / $261,441,092
Madagascar / 5/27/05 / $47,224,594 / $11,431 / 24.39% / $193,595,521
Valiant / 8/19/05 / $5,914,722 / $2,936 / 30.37% / $19,478,106
Corpse Bride / 9/23/05 (wide) / $19,656,451 / $5,975 / 35.88% / 53,359,111
Wallace & Gromit / 10/7/05 (wide) / $16,025,987 / $4,396 / 28.56% / $56,110,897
Chicken Little / 11/4/05 / $40,049,778 / $10,960 / 29.58% / $135,386,665
Hoodwinked / 1/13/06 / $12,401,900 / $5,180 / 24.25% / $51,143,000 (still playing)
Doogal / 2/24/06 / $3,605,899 / $1,555 / 48.79% / $7,438,000 (still playing)
The Wild / 4/14/06 / $9,559,000 (est.) / $3,349 (est.) / ? / ?

If the weekend estimate holds up, and The Wild has typical legs, it will probably end up with between $30 and $35 million domestically, which makes it safe to say that Disney must be hoping that Cars and Pirates do huge numbers, as expected.

Otherwise, The Shaggy Dog sustained a huge jump (72% according to BOM's estimates), but it lost more than half of its theaters and Disney has basically stopped promoting it, so that's not too surprising. Its performance is a bit below what most of us expected, but not low enough to qualify as a flop.

NarniaDis · Post by **NarniaDis** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 2:58 pm

How are we doing in comparison to last year though? Will Pirates and Cars really have to be breakout blockbusters (280+) to really get them over last year. With Shaggy Dog not performing as well as hoped the duo (Eight / Shaggy) won't even make the same as last years duo (Pacifier/Ice Princess)...

I think I'm just PO'ed that The Wild didn't do better. It should have.

NarniaDis

MickeyMousePal · Post by **MickeyMousePal** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 3:16 pm

The reason why The Wild open low this weekend was because of Good Friday and Good Saturay many Catholics don't watch TV this week or Friday and Saturay.

Anyways the reason why Scary Movie 4 became #1 because many teenagers and some adults don't believe in Jesus anymore.

Post by **Luke** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 3:38 pm

MickeyMousePal wrote:The reason why The Wild open low this weekend was because of Good Friday and Good Saturay many Catholics don't watch TV this week or Friday and Saturay.

Anyways the reason why Scary Movie 4 became #1 because many teenagers and some adults don't believe in Jesus anymore.

Oh, Pals, that might make a little sense if The Wild was a TV show or if it did better on Sunday than Friday and Saturday (or "Saturay", as you call it), but it's not and it didn't. And it doesn't take into account the majority of Americans (who are not Catholic) and the fact that the majority of Americans do believe in Jesus. It's a broad oversimplification. Scary Movie 4 would have opened big on any weekend without any major competition and I'm not sure The Wild would have fared better opening at any other time.

NarniaDis wrote:How are we doing in comparison to last year though? Will Pirates and Cars really have to be breakout blockbusters (280+) to really get them over last year. With Shaggy Dog not performing as well as hoped the duo (Eight / Shaggy) won't even make the same as last years duo (Pacifier/Ice Princess)...

Well no, they won't need them to be HUGE to outdo last year (that seems inevitable even if they perform slightly below expectations)...but there are only a few films remaining this year, whereas last year they had the end of the year 1-2 punch to save them. The Santa Clause 3 could be a hit, though. You also have to consider that this year's films cost more to make and market.

Through mid-April (April 17) last year:
The Pacifier: $103,727,286
Ice Princess: $22,182,814
Pooh's Heffalump Movie: $18,098,433
Aliens of the Deep: $4,449,581

Total gross (4 films): $148,458,114

Through today (April 16) this year (final weekend numbers not yet in):
Eight Below: $79,847,324
The Shaggy Dog: $56,675,000
Glory Road: $42,448,852
The Wild: $9,559,000
Roving Mars: $2,637,504

Total gross (5 films): $191,167,680

plus
Stay Alive: $22,031,000
Annapolis: $17,127,992

Total company gross (7 films): $230,326,672

NarniaDis · Post by **NarniaDis** » Sun Apr 16, 2006 11:35 pm

Thanks Luke! Sorry for my rant earlier, I'm just really dissapointed.

NarniaDis

SofaKing381222 · Post by **SofaKing381222** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 9:35 am

Wow, I guessed way too high with The Wild. The thing is I thought that since it sounded like a decent movie itself, myabe people would put aside the similarities to Madagascar and go see it. Apparently, the American public isnt like that, even though the reviews that dont include referances to Madagascar give positive reviews, most people dont want to see anything that remotley seems like anything they have seen in the past year. Too bad, so sad. Their loss. Ill still buy it on DVD.

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 9:45 am

It really is unfortunate that Madagascar got released first. The Wild is the better movie. At least I can say that I took my kids to see it, and we enjoyed it. We went to McDonalds first and got the happy meal toy. I let my kids bring their toys into the theater with us - we had a blast.

Also - if you read the reviews - it got really bad reviews from the critics (except Roger Ebert

) and really good reviews from the general public.

MickeyMousePal · Post by **MickeyMousePal** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 10:08 am

Luke, you don't believe that people prefer to show their faith to Jesus rather then watching television or see a movie at the theatres...when I went on Sunday less people went. Usually when I go to the mall I see tons of people the reason was because people have parties on Easter....so kids are away from watching The Wild.

The reason why I didn't see The Wild this week was because I only had time to watch Scary Movie 4.

Scary Moive 4 was okay but rather silly....

Grade B-

ichabod · Post by **ichabod** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 11:25 am

You know I'm really glad I lowered my prediction for 'The Wild' now!

Post by **Luke** » Mon Apr 17, 2006 4:58 pm

Finally, another closing to report and this one looks like our most accurately-predicted one from last year.

Chicken Little
Opened November 4, 2005. Closed April 2006.

Final Gross: $135,386,665
Average Prediction: $141,836,000
Closest Prediction: $133,400,000 by eatmorechiken (98.53% accurate)

Rest of predictions:
2) AwallaceUNC - $140 M (96.6% accurate)
3) Luke/yankees - $130 M (96.0% accurate)
5) Raydawggie/cydney - $145 M (92.9% accurate)
7) lord-of-sith - $125 M (92.3% accurate)
8) TaleAsOldAsTime - $149.5 M (89.6% accurate)
9) Prince Eric/HogiBear - $150 M (89.2% accurate)
11) pinkrenata - $120 M (88.6% accurate)
12) Just Myself - $115 M (84.9% accurate)
13) Timon/Pumba fan - $156 M (84.8% accurate)
14) Mushu - $159 M (82.6% accurate)
15) castleinthesky - $160 M (81.8% accurate)
16) 2099net/Wonderlicious - $110 M (81.2% accurate)
18) Jack/MickeyMousePal/TheLittleMerman - $170 M (74.4% accurate)
21) Lucylover1986 - $99 M (73.1% accurate)
22) SofaKing38122 - $173 M (72.2% accurate)
23) PatrickvD - $176 M (70.0% accurate)
24) ichabod - $180 M (67.1% accurate)
25) toonstuff - $80 M (59.1% accurate)

<hr>

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $316.3 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $291,615,165, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Cars $238.3 M
Meet the Robinsons $133.8 M
The Santa Clause 3 $124.9 M
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (current gross: $56,709,556, closest - PatrickvD, $58 M)
The Wild $65.6 M (current gross: $9,684,809, closest - Jake Lipson, $20 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $42,550,894, closest - awallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Invincible $41.0 M
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $80,169,930, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
Stick It $29.8 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,777,041, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $2,787,944, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,777,041, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $291,615,165, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $42,550,894, closest - awallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $2,787,944, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $80,169,930, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (current gross: $56,709,556, closest - PatrickvD, $58 M)
The Wild $64.0 M (current gross: $9,684,809, closest - Jake Lipson, $20 M)

Stick It $29.8 M (Touchstone - predictions optional)
Cars $238.3 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $316.3 M
Invincible $41.0 M
The Santa Clause 3 $124.9 M

Meet the Robinsons $133.8 M

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 9:51 am

kbehm29 wrote: Did you know that even The Disney Store didn't carry merchandise for Valiant? That's pretty sad. I wonder if they'll be carrying The Wild merchandise? I'll have to stop there on Friday after we go see the movie just to check it out.

I did check out the Disney store after we saw The Wild. Sadly, they have no merchandise supporting the movie that was showing just next door. They could have made a fortune off the stuffed koala bears! Too bad....

AwallaceUNC · Post by **AwallaceUNC** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 10:36 am

Ugh- I was so close on Chicken Little

Congrats to eatmorechicken, whose username makes him an appropriate winner for this movie (or maybe a disturbing one

).

-Aaron

Just Myself · Post by **Just Myself** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 11:59 am

kbehm29 wrote:
kbehm29 wrote: Did you know that even The Disney Store didn't carry merchandise for Valiant? That's pretty sad. I wonder if they'll be carrying The Wild merchandise? I'll have to stop there on Friday after we go see the movie just to check it out.
I did check out the Disney store after we saw The Wild. Sadly, they have no merchandise supporting the movie that was showing just next door. They could have made a fortune off the stuffed koala bears! Too bad....

Disney didn't produce either of these films, they only released them. The only way you'll see them in toy form is at McDonald's, and the reason they're there isn't Disney's doing.

Post by **Luke** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 12:28 pm

Just Myself wrote:Disney didn't produce either of these films, they only released them. The only way you'll see them in toy form is at McDonald's, and the reason they're there isn't Disney's doing.

You're right up to a point. Having the toys at McDonald's is not the doing of C.O.R.E. or Hoytyboy Pictures; it's purely Disney as part of their marketing/distributing responsibilities.

TheSequelOfDisney · Post by **TheSequelOfDisney** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 5:55 pm

I think they will make:
$1,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,111,110 and two cents.

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 9:04 am

What about the new Goal! movie that's coming out this year? Shouldn't that be included on this list?

Box Office Mojo has it's title being Goal! The Dream Begins and a release date of May 12, 2006 distributed by Buena Vista.

IMDB has the movie simply listed as Goal! with the same release date of May 12th. They have Walt Disney Pictures listed as one of the production companies and Buena Vista as the distributer.

IMDB also has a movie titled Goal! 2: Living the Dream with a release date of September 1, 2006, also distributed by Buena Vista and Walt Disney Pictures.

Just Myself · Post by **Just Myself** » Fri Apr 21, 2006 10:59 am

I don't know about G!2, but Goal! The Dream Begins was moved under Touchstone a few months back around the same time Stick It was moved. But since Goal! is rated PG and IMDb lists it as a family film, I'm sure if popular enough, it could be considered and marketed as a Disney film on DVD and afterwards, much like Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas, and (more recently) The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

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Predict how much the 2006 Disney films will earn