Predict how much the 2006 Disney films will earn

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:51 pm

Karushifa wrote:Third...The Wild's success or un-success will depend largely on how well Disney markets it. Valiant's mediocrity probably hurt its later weeks in theaters, but the movie was marketed in such a low-key manner that opening weekend business was probably hurt as well. If Disney really pushes The Wild the right way, it should surpass Vailant's paltry $25 million...but, then again, if they bury it, then it will probably end up being another DVD moneymaker as opposed to a box office success.

Personally, I've seen this movie promoted A LOT on TV, and on trailers for almost every movie I've gone to see in theaters the past few months. On this board, however, it seems there is zero interest in the movie outside of this thread. That sort of scares me. I think it will do better than Valiant, but not too great, unfortunately.

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:54 pm

Karushifa wrote:Uh oh. It appears as if Toys 'R' Us (or, as my dad would say, "We 'b' Toys") is opting NOT to produce exclusive merchandise for The Wild (Attention Readers: this is a Jim Hill article, so read it with a grain of salt or as you would an editorial, which it is):

http://jimhillmedia.com/blogs/jim_hill/ ... /1765.aspx

Could Disney be trying to bury The Wild as they did Valiant? It's not all that clear for now, but I'd say if there turns out to be no Happy Meal tie-in for The Wild, the movie's pretty much dead in the water

Did you know that even The Disney Store didn't carry merchandise for Valiant? That's pretty sad. I wonder if they'll be carrying The Wild merchandise? I'll have to stop there on Friday after we go see the movie just to check it out.

Post by **Luke** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 3:16 pm

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $315.7 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $291,478,741, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Cars $239.3 M
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $135,381,507, closest - eatmorechiken, $133.4 M)
Meet the Robinsons $135.8 M
The Santa Clause 3 $126.4 M
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (current gross: $55,706,760, closest - PatrickvD, $58 M)
The Wild $64.0 M
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $42,448,552, closest - awallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Invincible $41.6 M
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $79,847,324, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
Stick It $30.3 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,767,253, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $2,637,504, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,767,253, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $135,381,507, closest - eatmorechiken, $133.4 M)
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $291,478,741, closest - lord-of-sith/ichabod $280 M)
Glory Road $41.2 M (current gross: $42,448,552, closest - awallaceUNC, $44.6 M)
Roving Mars $7.5 M (current gross: $2,637,504, closest - Disneykid $3.5 M)
Eight Below $37.6 M (current gross: $79,847,324, closest - Bill W, $60 M)
The Shaggy Dog $78.8 M (current gross: $55,706,760, closest - PatrickvD, $58 M)

The Wild $64.0 M
Stick It $30.3 M (Touchstone - predictions optional)
Cars $239.3 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $315.7 M
Invincible $41.6 M
The Santa Clause 3 $126.4 M

Meet the Robinsons $135.8 M

pinkrenata · Post by **pinkrenata** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 9:13 pm

I'm entering a bit late and don't care much for prediction/ranking-type games, but here goes:

The Wild $98.2 M
Stick It $23.3 M
Cars $216.3 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $327.5 M
Invincible $31.2 M
The Santa Clause 3 $99.8 M
Meet the Robinsons $101.1 M

Mushu · Post by **Mushu** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 10:07 pm

Luke wrote:
Mushu wrote:Well, since I forgot to make a prediction for The Shaggy Dog, I'm going to make a prediction for a few films now.
Actually, I had a prediction on Shaggy for you. Probably because we had it in the list for a long time, before most other 2006 releases.

Other prediction revisions up to this point have been noted.

Thanks Luke! I didn't ever think that I would have predicted it in my first post in the 2005 thread, and when I was searching though my posts I must have skimmed over that one two quickly. It's nice knowing that I have made a prediction for every movie so far. (Even though I know that I don't stand a chance at winning.) Thanks again!

NarniaDis · Post by **NarniaDis** » Mon Apr 10, 2006 11:02 pm

bumping mine up to $70 for THE WILD.

- - - IA2 could still really hurt this though so I'm not sure... could kill this like it killed SD...

- - - and just because a movie has a Happy Meal Tie-In doesn't mean sucsess. Doogal had a tie-in (McDonalds) and fell flat on its face.

NarniaDis

Karushifa · Post by **Karushifa** » Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:58 am

NarniaDis wrote: - - - and just because a movie has a Happy Meal Tie-In doesn't mean sucsess. Doogal had a tie-in (McDonalds) and fell flat on its face.

Very true...poor old Doogal. Yet NO Happy Meal tie-in for The Wild (unconfirmed, just stating the hypothetical) would say something about how much faith Disney is putting in the movie, which from where I see it would be very little. Never mind the regular merchandise...if they aren't even willing to roll out cheap little toys you get for free with junk food, then that to me smacks of trying to bury a film and hope for positive numbers when the DVD comes out.

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:33 pm

There will be happy meal toys for THE WILD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Press release from McDonalds today confirms it:

McDonald's Press Release 04/12/2006

McDonald’s® Happy Meals and Mighty Kids Meals Go Wild

McDonald’s to Feature Characters from Walt Disney Pictures’ New Computer-Animated Comedy The Wild – April 14 through May 11, 2006

Oak Brook, Ill., April 12, 2006 – McDonald’s is ready to tame the wild as a pack of characters from Walt Disney Pictures’ new computer-animated adventure The Wild stampede into McDonald’s Happy Meals and Mighty Kids Meals nationwide. Beginning April 14, 2006 through May 11, 2006, young guests will receive one of eight comical characters inspired by the film with the purchase of a Happy Meal® or Mighty Kids Meal®, at participating McDonald’s restaurants, while supplies last.

Walt Disney Pictures’ The Wild is a wild and outrageous computer-animated comedy-adventure following an odd assortment of animals from the New York Zoo – including a lion, a giraffe, an anaconda, a koala, and a squirrel –who discover what a jungle the city can be when they hit the streets on a mission to save one of their own. The Wild is in theatres April 14 and features an impressive vocal ensemble including Keifer Sutherland, Greg Cipes, Jim Belushi, Eddie Izzard, Janeane Garofalo, Richard Kind and William Shatner.

Just in time for National Wildlife Week (April 23 – April 30, 2006), The Wild McDonald’s Happy Meal and Mighty Kids Meal collection features eight lovable characters from the film, each with an exciting action that captures a memorable scene from the movie. Samson the lion, a brave leader and fan of the sport turtle curling, swings his arm back to hurl his curling turtle for a top score. Wind up Benny the squirrel and Bridget the giraffe to watch them boogie down. Not to be outdone, Larry the anaconda dances forward and rotates his upper body when pulled-back.

Nigel the koala hates to be called cute, but tickle his stomach and watch as his green torch lights up to add to the fun and excitement of McDonald's Happy Meals. Wind-up lion cub Ryan to watch him playfully leap, and push on Stan the alligator’s ferocious jaws and marvel as his forceful tail sends his curling turtle sailing. Rounding out this unlikely group of friends is Cloak the chameleon, whose 5-inch tail fades from green, blue and yellow just like a real chameleon. From the king of the jungle to his bushy-tailed friends, the McDonald’s Happy Meal The Wild collection will allow young moviegoers to bring home a piece of the jungle and is sure to delight kids of all ages.

http://www.mcdonalds.com/usa/news/curre ... 22006.html

MickeyMousePal · Post by **MickeyMousePal** » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:35 pm

The movie that will probably be #1 will be Scary Movie 4 then Ice Age 2: The Melt down Then the Wild.

More Teens and College Students will see Scary Movie 4

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Thu Apr 13, 2006 7:36 am

MickeyMousePal wrote:The movie that will probably be #1 will be Scary Movie 4 then Ice Age 2: The Melt down Then the Wild.
More Teens and College Students will see Scary Movie 4

I agree with you - I'm sure Scary Movie 4 will be the #1 movie this weekend, but I'm going to venture a guess that The Wild will be #2, and Ice Age will fall to #3??? I'm keeping my fingers crossed - I mean so many people have seen it already....so maybe the Wild has a chance of beating it out this LONG weekend.

Post by **Luke** » Thu Apr 13, 2006 10:29 am

Today is the last day to revise predictions on The Wild. Even though I feel my estimate is either going to be considerably high or low and that my prediction revisions often tend to hurt more than help, I'm going to ever so slightly bump my guess to $48 M.

pinkrenata · Post by **pinkrenata** » Thu Apr 13, 2006 10:38 am

I believe I shall now lower my prediction for The Wild to $84.7

ichabod · Post by **ichabod** » Thu Apr 13, 2006 1:05 pm

I'm going to return to a prediction of $42.9 mil for The Wild

MickeyMousePal · Post by **MickeyMousePal** » Thu Apr 13, 2006 1:31 pm

Revise Prediction:

The Wild $90 Million

Luke, isn't Dimension own by Disney so why can't we predict Scary Movie 4?

Scary Movie 4 $ 140 Million

Just Myself · Post by **Just Myself** » Thu Apr 13, 2006 8:30 pm

SM4 is not Dimension in USA. It's from The Weinstein Company, even though the ads say Dimension/Miramax.

Timon/Pumbaa fan · Post by **Timon/Pumbaa fan** » Thu Apr 13, 2006 8:36 pm

Okay, I'll rise my The Wild predictions A LITTLE higher!

The Wild: $29 Million

Just Myself · Post by **Just Myself** » Thu Apr 13, 2006 9:01 pm

Changing my The Wild prediction to $27 million. Bomb!

Post by **Luke** » Thu Apr 13, 2006 10:19 pm

All revisions noted (except for Pals' Scary Movie 4 prediction, since we're not doing that one). The Wild's average prediction rose slightly to 65.6, but our guesses are all over the board on this one, ranging from 20 to 150 million!

AwallaceUNC · Post by **AwallaceUNC** » Thu Apr 13, 2006 10:45 pm

Just Myself wrote:SM4 is not Dimension in USA. It's from The Weinstein Company, even though the ads say Dimension/Miramax.

I believe it was produced by Dimension, but distributed by Weinstein, which seems like a pretty tricky arrangement, as are many of the arrangements that cross over from the pre-/post-Weinstein split days (The first three Scary Movies were Buena Vista start to finish). It seems that whoever distributes Weinstein Company DVDs will be distributing SM4, and sadly not BVHE.

-Aaron

NarniaDis · Post by **NarniaDis** » Sat Apr 15, 2006 11:14 am

Well it looks like TW is off to a bad start. Even with the great advertising thats been done in the past 3 weeks, being overshadowed by IA2 has really hurt. TW opened to aprx. 4.5m on Fri. while this means a much higher opening than Valient and there are mostly positive things from the people who have watched it, it still will struggle in the end to reach 50m (unless a miracle accures in the next two days).

While I hope it does well, it goes to show that its hard to do to similar movies at the same time (IA2 did about 8m).

I forsee an 11-13m weekend

NarniaDis

DVDizzy Forum

Latest Movie Reviews

🎬 DVDizzy Top Stories️️

Predict how much the 2006 Disney films will earn