Summer Box Office Predictions

[DDMAN26]

This is always fun to do as most of money that Hollywood makes usually occurs during the summer. Here are my picks based on the trailers I've seen and what I read, will be the top 20 moneymakers this season:


1. Spider-Man 2 Opening 110 million/395 final gross. I thought the original Spider-Man was a very successful origin story of the character. But one thing kept it from being a true success...the Green Goblin. Frankly he just didn't do it for me. Now with the main villian being Doctor Octopus(the coolest comic book villian ever) Spider-Man 2 may become that rare sequel that's even better than the original.

2. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 85/320
It's the best book in the series(so far) and I'm excited to see how the Dementors and Buckbeak are brought to the screen. The kids look more assured of themselves, it's got a great director, oh and Gary Oldman as Sirius Black is just a casting coup imho.

3. Shrek 2 75/245
A lot of people loved this movie(myself included). A lot of people hated it(. I'll admit I don't see the need for a sequel, but c'mon just about every kid will want to see this.

4. Troy 45/235
Let's see it's got some great actors, Brian Cox, Brendan Gleeson, Peter O'Toole, Sean Bean, Brad Pitt(he is). It's based on a well-known story. Most importantly it has Brad Pitt and Orlando Bloom for the ladies. And for the guys it looks to be the action epic of the year.

5. The Terminal 50/225
Steven Spielberg could direct Tom Hanks paying his bills and people would see it.

6. The Day After Tomorrow 65/195
Nobody loves to destroy cities like the makers of Independence Day. I expect this to be fun, and it looks like it will be.

7. King Arthur 50/175
It's a take we've not seen on Arthur before. So that alone peaked my interest.

8. Anchorman 50/155
Will Ferrell is the funniest man in America right now and the trailer to this had me rolling on the floor.

9. Collateral 40/145
Tom Cruise doesn't play Tom Cruise in this movie, he play Tom Cruise if he were evil. I'm so there
.
10. The Bourne Supremacy 35/135
The original was a smart,exciting action picture. I'm hoping for more of the same.

11 Van Helsing 55/130
This one has a very Hulk feel to it, opens big, crashes in the second weekend,struggles to its final gross.

12. I Robot 45/115
So could this one. Will Smith's act is growing old and it doesn't seem like it would fit into a story like this

13. The Manchurian Candidate 25/110-Sometimes remakes are good(Ocean's 11) sometimes they're bad(mostly all the others) with Denzel Washington on board I'm leaning towards the former instead of the latter.

14. The Village 40/105-I just don't know about this one. It just seems more of the same old song and dance from M Night Shamaylam(sp)

15. Dodgeball 20/95-It could very well be the dumbest movie of the year, but it also looks very funny.

You can also go to themoviebox.net if you want to check out the trailers for these films.






 

[Ballzo]

Without a doubt Spidey 2 will be champ!
Potter will do excellent as well!

The Chronicles of Shiddick will bomb, and rightfully so! Vin Disel is just so bloody awful. He just needs to go away and never come back!

[DDMAN26]

Yeah the Chronicles of Riddick doesn't excite me. Neither does Catwoman, Around the World in 80 Days and The Stepford Wives.

[Just Myself]

Yeah but 80 Days and Stepford will do well. At least better than Dodgeball

[Ludwig Von Drake]

I think that Van Helsing and I Robot will do better

The remake of Manchurian Remake looks terrible. The original is much better and is a great cold war film. WATCH THE ORIGINAL

[Squirrel]

The Terminal is the one I'm most looking forward to ... so I hope it does well. It looks really good, I think. Spiderman 2 and Harry Potter also look good. I think these three films will do well, but I think Troy will falter. Maybe over 150, but I don't think it'll be a blockbuster like it hypes itself up to be. I might be wrong, though.

[Jack]

1. Spider-Man 2 - $310 Million
2. Harry Potter and the Prizoner of Azkaban - $270
3. Shrek 2 - $270
4. Troy - $200
5. The Village - $180
6. The Day After Tomorrow - $150
7. Van Helsing - $145
8. The Bourne Supremacy - $135
9. King Arthur - $125
10. The Terminal - $115
11. I, Robot - $100
12. Collateral - $100
13. Anchorman - $100
14. Dodgeball - $85
15. The Manchurian Cantidate - $80

[MickeyMousePal]

Here's my predictions of how the Box Office might look this summer.


1. Spider-Man 2 - First weekend- $120/ Total $410 Million
2. Harry Potter and the Prizoner of Azkaban - First weekend $90/ Total $230
3. Van Helsing - First weekend $90 / Total $210
4. Shrek 2 - First weekend $80/ Total $270
5. Troy - First week $ 100 /Total $200
6. The Day After Tomorrow - first weekend $80/ Total $150
7. The Village - First weekend $80/ Total $180
8. The Bourne Supremacy - First weekend $50 / Total $135
9. King Arthur - First weekend $45/ Total $125
10. The Terminal - First weekend $40/ Total $115
11. Garfield - First weekend $50/ Total $110
12. Aliens vs. Preator- First weekend $90/ Total $100
13. I, Robot - First weekend $50/ Total $100
14. Collateral - First weekend $40/ Total $95
15. Anchorman - First weekend $40 / Total $90
16. Dodgeball - First weekend $30/ Total $80
17. The Manchurian Cantidate - First weekend $ 20 /Total $80
18. Catwomen- Firstw weekend $10 /Total $60
19. Chronicles of Riddick First weekend $10/ Total $50
20. Around the World in 80 Days- First weekend $18/ Total $50
21. The Stepford Wives- First weekend $7/ Total $40

[Satoshi]

Well okay I've never made predictions before but let's give this a shot....

1. Spider-Man 2 - 154(5-day weekend)/359
2. Harry Potter 3 - 84/303
3. Shrek 2 - 76/266
4. Day After Tomorrow - 69/223
5. Troy - 45/215
6. The Village - 43/169
7. The Bourne Supremacy - 34/127
8. Van Helsing - 49/111
9. I Robot - 42/107
10. King Arthur - 32/107

Don't know much about the others so I didn't include them.

[Just Myself]

Here's my predictions of how the Box Office might look this summer.


1. Spider-Man 2 - First weekend- $120/ Total $410 Million
2. Harry Potter and the Prizoner of Azkaban - First weekend $90/ Total $230
3. Van Helsing - First weekend $90 / Total $210
4. Shrek 2 - First weekend $80/ Total $270
5. Troy - First week $ 100 /Total $200
6. The Day After Tomorrow - first weekend $80/ Total $150
7. The Village - First weekend $80/ Total $180
8. The Bourne Supremacy - First weekend $50 / Total $135
9. King Arthur - First weekend $45/ Total $125
10. The Terminal - First weekend $40/ Total $115
11. Garfield - First weekend $50/ Total $110
12. Aliens vs. Preator- First weekend $90/ Total $100
13. I, Robot - First weekend $50/ Total $100
14. Collateral - First weekend $40/ Total $95
15. Anchorman - First weekend $40 / Total $90
16. Dodgeball - First weekend $30/ Total $80
17. The Manchurian Cantidate - First weekend $ 20 /Total $80
18. Catwomen- Firstw weekend $10 /Total $60
19. Chronicles of Riddick First weekend $10/ Total $50
20. Around the World in 80 Days- First weekend $18/ Total $50
21. The Stepford Wives- First weekend $7/ Total $40

DUDE!!!! YOUR PREDICTIONS ARE SO SCREWED UP!!! GARFIELD $50/$110 MILLION? STEPFORD WIVES $7/40 MILLION? ON A COLD DAY IN HELL!!!!

Sorry, POed about trespassers.

[DDMAN26]

It's rumored that Catwoman may make Batman and Robin look like Citizen Kane.

[Ballzo]

It's rumored that Catwoman may make Batman and Robin look like Citizen Kane.

I bet that is an understatment. The script does not even follow the source material. The costume is just awful, gratuitus to show off her body.

[Loomis]

Just curious as to what method everyone is basing their predictions on, or is it purely guess-work?

Criswell predicts the film that takes the most at the box office will be the leader this "summer".

[Satoshi]

Well, I look at the release date, and think about what other movies would be out around that time that might hurt whatever movie I'm predicting. And I look at the trailers/reviews (for the movies that have those available). And then lastly and most importantly I look at the box office success (or failure) of prequels to the films I'm predicting, or movies that share the same director/lead actor/whatever. (for example, Independance Day/Day After Tomorrow and Men in Black/I Robot).

But yes in the end it is all guess work.

[toonaspie]

Here's my predictions of how the Box Office might look this summer.


1. Spider-Man 2 - First weekend- $120/ Total $410 Million
2. Harry Potter and the Prizoner of Azkaban - First weekend $90/ Total $230
3. Van Helsing - First weekend $90 / Total $210
4. Shrek 2 - First weekend $80/ Total $270
5. Troy - First week $ 100 /Total $200
6. The Day After Tomorrow - first weekend $80/ Total $150
7. The Village - First weekend $80/ Total $180
8. The Bourne Supremacy - First weekend $50 / Total $135
9. King Arthur - First weekend $45/ Total $125
10. The Terminal - First weekend $40/ Total $115
11. Garfield - First weekend $50/ Total $110
12. Aliens vs. Preator- First weekend $90/ Total $100
13. I, Robot - First weekend $50/ Total $100
14. Collateral - First weekend $40/ Total $95
15. Anchorman - First weekend $40 / Total $90
16. Dodgeball - First weekend $30/ Total $80
17. The Manchurian Cantidate - First weekend $ 20 /Total $80
18. Catwomen- Firstw weekend $10 /Total $60
19. Chronicles of Riddick First weekend $10/ Total $50
20. Around the World in 80 Days- First weekend $18/ Total $50
21. The Stepford Wives- First weekend $7/ Total $40

DUDE!!!! YOUR PREDICTIONS ARE SO SCREWED UP!!! GARFIELD $50/$110 MILLION? STEPFORD WIVES $7/40 MILLION? ON A COLD DAY IN HELL!!!!

Sorry, POed about trespassers.

well those who are true Garfield fans shall see it in the theaters

[Luke]

Interesting to look at these numbers again now that the summer movie season is more than halfway done.

Actual 2004 Grosses, thus far:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/cha ... 004&p=.htm

[Satoshi]

Interesting to look at these numbers again now that the summer movie season is more than halfway done.

Yes, it's a good way to show you why I'd never made any predictions before this time.

[2099net]

That list really makes me cry

It's absolutely unforgivable that Dogville has only ever played at 70 theaters and has only taken $1.5m. God forbid anything challenging should be presented to the American masses. Touching the Void hasn't done much better either. I thought "reality" was the new entertainment success story?

Yet The Whole Ten Yards managed to open on 2,654 screens

Why didn't Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind do better. And although it will have been hacked to pieces by Harvey Scissorhands, Shaolin Soccer should have done way better (14 screens. Disgusting).

[AwallaceUNC]

Well, Drudge Report's posted that Potter is #1 of the summer, globally, now.

Here's the source link, and it's full of lots of good stuff about most of the summer blockbusters:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&c ... &printer=1

-Aaron