After Blu-Ray

[yamiiguy]

What do you think will come after blu-ray? I think blu-ray will be the last (or last mainstream) home video physical format. I think that downloads are the way to go and they will be ready to compete once fibre optic broadband has been rolled out across the main areas and 1080p downloads become feasible. I already rip my DVDs and Blu-Rays and transfer them to my iTunes and Apple TV or buy the movie off of iTunes (if it's available, if it's available in HD, if it isn't available in HD or Blu-Ray) .

[2099net]

I think Blu-ray will be the last - but only because it can keep getting upgraded - even now, although they say it will never be used for movies, they can make 200GB+ discs by including more layers.

So yes, I think Blu-ray will be the last physical format, but I expect a few evolutions of the format - some of which will require the purchase of a new player, some not. (There's talk of BD discs holding more data with no player upgrades beyond firmware updates already here - http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/01/07/blu_ray_33_4gb/ )

I also think Blu-ray's combined "shelf life" will be 25 years plus.

[littlefuzzy]

I wonder when we're going to get a solid state format. Either something electronic (similar to a flash drive), or a crystal drive. I've heard of a holographic storage thing that could potentially store 10s of Terabytes in a single cubic inch...

Of course, the question remains if we'll move to downloadable or on-demand distribution methods. Personally, I like owning a physical copy. I can take it to a friend's house, look at the oover art or extras that came with it, browse my titles by spine (instead of just a list of titles on the computer), buy or sell a used copy, and I don't have to worry about losing it if my computer crashes or the online content provider goes down. Plus, there are a few titles that I might prefer if the online service didn't know I owned them... Concievably, they could use the list of downloaded movies as marketing research, or even as some sort of preventative "anti-criminal" method.

"Say, this guy seems to have a lot of violent horror films! We'll notify the police, and they'll put an ankle-bracelet on him so we can make sure he doesn't go out and kill someone!"

[The_Iceflash]

Did anyone think when DVD come out that it would be the last?

[yamiiguy]

I wonder when we're going to get a solid state format. Either something electronic (similar to a flash drive), or a crystal drive. I've heard of a holographic storage thing that could potentially store 10s of Terabytes in a single cubic inch...

Of course, the question remains if we'll move to downloadable or on-demand distribution methods. Personally, I like owning a physical copy. I can take it to a friend's house, look at the oover art or extras that came with it, browse my titles by spine (instead of just a list of titles on the computer), buy or sell a used copy, and I don't have to worry about losing it if my computer crashes or the online content provider goes down. Plus, there are a few titles that I might prefer if the online service didn't know I owned them... Concievably, they could use the list of downloaded movies as marketing research, or even as some sort of preventative "anti-criminal" method.

"Say, this guy seems to have a lot of violent horror films! We'll notify the police, and they'll put an ankle-bracelet on him so we can make sure he doesn't go out and kill someone!"

Of course the physical medium has the advantages you have stated but the digital copy also has it's advantages:

Better for the environment
Easier to obtain - never sold out
Easier to manufacture (I'm presuming)

And of course you could always put them on a external HDD to travel with.

[Widdi]

Did anyone think when DVD come out that it would be the last?

Yup and they thought the same with VHS. That's evident by looking at novels written in the future and them still using VHS.

Technology will always change, anyone who thinks Blu-Ray is the ultimate technology are kidding themselves. By 2025 something will replace it for sure. What will that be? Who knows. Probably something that is capable of showing better picture (1080p isn't the highest definition after all, it's just the highest available at the moment) and comes in a smaller package.

[KubrickFan]

Did anyone think when DVD come out that it would be the last?

Yup and they thought the same with VHS. That's evident by looking at novels written in the future and them still using VHS.

Technology will always change, anyone who thinks Blu-Ray is the ultimate technology are kidding themselves. By 2025 something will replace it for sure. What will that be? Who knows. Probably something that is capable of showing better picture (1080p isn't the highest definition after all, it's just the highest available at the moment) and comes in a smaller package.

About the resolution, I think that will stay the same. Right now HD is roughly the same as the resolution that a digital projector in the cinema has, and that still holds up greatly. Of course you can go with 4K resolution, but many recent movies were completed in a resolution lower than that. Plus, you'd need a television that's the size of a wall in your house to see the difference between that and 2K resolution. Maybe it'll be something for HD enthusiasts, but I doubt it.
I too think downloading will become the future, if it's feasible. I don't want to download 50 GB of data every time I want to buy a movie, but I don't want it compressed to hell either. Plus it gives the companies the option of adding bonus features later when they want, just like firmware updates (if they do it right). I can see that happen.

[Barbossa]

Blu-Ray the last? You got to be kidding. Somwhere out there someone has to make some money.

[cornelius]

Blu-Ray the last? You got to be kidding. Somwhere out there someone has to make some money.

You say that but the CD looks to be the last major physical format where music is concerned. Movies are going exactly the same way. It's all about where the future demand lies. And I'll be honest after a couple of visits to HMV this week that's no bad thing. £35 for Quantum of Solace on Blu Ray and today they were charging £25 for Dumbo Blu Ray. Anything that helps put these highwaymen out of business is great in my book. We're all being robbed blind.

Last year I bought a PS3 but that didn't convert me. What coverted me was two things really - firstly SKY HD; when you get used to watching films in HD it is a bit of a comedown when putting on a standard DVD and secondly the combi packs; the fact that you can get a blu ray AND dvd for just a few pounds extra is just more proof of how much we get overcharged in the first place. So basically I decided I wasn't going to buy anymore dvds. Also having a third child this year has meant a greater need for space so I ended up selling almost all of my dvd collection on ebay and have used the proceeds to upgrade the very few titles that I really feel I must have a physical copy of. It's been a big shift in my mentality but I think as top quality downloads and storage devices become more readily available and affordable this will be the route the majority take.

[littlefuzzy]

As someone mentioned, 35mm film is about the equivalent of 4000 lines of resolution (or so I've heard.)

Until there is a format that could store:
A. a 3 hour+ movie (think Extended Lord of the Rings films) and lots of extras, displayed at 4000 lines of resolution
B. a complete TV season (or even series) (possibly at a lower resolution, depending on how it was shot)
-or-
C. a video game that can have hundreds or thousands of photo-realistic characters on screen at 60 fps (or more), displayed at 4000 lines of resolution

I don't think they'll quit trying to reach for that next technology.

Of course, at some point, there is going to be something small enough to put in your pocket that can store an entire superHD movie collection, video games, computer programs and files, etc. At that point, it would be silly to buy a single movie on a storage unit, so an On-Demand download would probably be easier.

As seen with the enormous advances in technology in the last thirty years (no home video -> VHS -> Laserdisc -> DVD -> Blu-Ray ->? ), and with hard drive and memory capacity growing at an incredible rate, we are going to find something that will increase capacity far beyond anything on the market today. In '96-'97 or so, I was told that there was no way I could fill up a 1 gigabyte hard drive!! Today, we have 1 TERABYTE drives (1000 gigabytes)! They even have flash drives up to 256GB now.

I wrote a piece on unlimited bandwidth for the Playstation boards, I'll try to repost it here (in a separate thread to save cluttering this thread)
http://ultimatedisney.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=26496

[milojthatch]

Well, in "Star Trek: First Contact" the people of 2064 used data cubes for their music. I bet movies will be about the same, so there you go, the next wave (or last ultimately) will be data cubes!