Paka, I don't think Darth or I have ever denied its over. In fact did you ever see this thread started by ME? I've tried to be as balanced as possible, but I have never hid my leaning to red (mainly because of regions which I know doesn't bother you and you'll probably say I am making a mountain out of that molehill).
HD DVD is dead. Warners goes Blu-ray exclusive!
The question isn't is HD DVD dead? Its how long will it to all intents and purposes survive in the wild, and is it still worth getting a player. You know how many HD DVD discs I have. In my case it was. Especially if said players would be harder to come by in the mid-future onwards (due to the format dying).
Widdi wrote:You want to know what will replace DVD as a standard format? Digital Downloads. You can bet that as soon as a piece of equipment that can store hundreds of movies on it is released that DVD will die.
To store hundreds of HD movies will require an enormous amount of storage. Huge. I'm not sure we'll ever have that much storage in anyone's home at all. I think the trend will be for people to "rent" storage on on-line server farms and stream everything from that. That seems to be the current trend with systems like the PS3 and the X360 for example having small HDD storage, but relying on the user's PC as a media server. The ultimate and logical extension of this is for the person's PC to rely on an external datastore as its media/data server. But that's years away because the telecommunications inferstructure just isn't there. Service providers are increasingly penalising users with heavy internet traffic (partly in order to provide a consistant experience for every other user). I think we're talking 15-20 years at least.
Meanwhile downloads are currently not the answer. People need a PC with a TV out and a reasonable quality audio out or a new-generation gaming console or will have to invest in a all new set-top box. The cost of buying such equipment will be the same as buying a blu-ray player anyway - and who's to say if you choose a player with online facilities your on-line capable blu-ray player won't also download movies? Let's face it, the PS3 will. Why not plug in a USB storage stickor USB HDD and download a movie to that over your Pioneer stand-alone blu-ray player? I'm sure manufacturers are already thinking about it and I'm sure it will happen, even if it takes another couple of years.
Downloads have a place, but I don't see downloads ever becomming as mainstream as DVD now. One reason is that due to location not everyone has the communications bandwidth available for downloads or if they do have the bandwidth its by "alternative" means and too expensive. The second is the storage issue. Downloads will for a long, long time be confined to the rental, limited use category (IMO). I've never seen downloads as the direct competitor to either HD format. The biggest competitor is - as everyone knows - DVD itself.
It doesn't help that DVD has become such a "disposable" format due to pricing. Ratatouille (2 discs over here too) just came out over here in the UK and you can get it for between £8-£9* if you shop in the right store. The same stores are selling the Blu-ray for £18-£22. It's going to be hard to inspire most people to switch when there's that price difference.
*
Note: All three of these prices are no doubt "launch" promotions running for a limited time as the stores compete with each other for custom and footfall.
However Buena Vista UK regularly has Buy-One Get-One-Free deals on their titles 1 or 2 times a year, meaning for all intents and purposes its likely Ratatouille will be available for around £8 again in a few months.
