DVD sales drop approx. 4% in 2007. Big surprise?

[2099net]

It has been reported that DVD sales are down approximately 4% in 2007 than those in 2006. Warner Bros made the statement that research into the Hi-Def format "war" indicated that some customers were not only holding off buying into the Hi-Def market place, but were actually stopping or scaling back on their DVD purchases at the same time.

But really, is a 4% decrease that unexpected?

Firstly, considering most catalogue titles have been released on DVD by now, some released multiple times (I believe the 1st "Resident Evil" film, "Monty Python and the Holy Grail" and "The Evil Dead" are all on their fourth release!) does a drop of 4% actually mean many people are constantly double-dipping on titles that they love? 2007 didn't have 94% of all its DVD releases being new films and television programmes after all did it? A majority of its DVD releases were enhanced re-releases.

Secondly, the public have got wise to the Studios tendency to re-release better editions of films later. Perhaps the biggest proponent of this strategy is Fox. I cannot count on two hands the number of people I know who are holding off on a purchase of the somewhay lacklustre "The Simpsons Movie" DVD for now, because they "know" a better release will be available in the future. Fox's history seems to support this – recently they have announced the 2-Disc release of "Ice Age 2", after initially offering only a single disc release. It's only natural that the "double hit" strategy of releasing would eventually catch on with the general public. Fox repeatedly hold back content, Sony seems to double dip the most often (remember the days of Sony's Superbit releases when a normal 2 disc release would have enabled "Superbit" visuals and supplements in one package?) and often with minimal incentives to do so.

It's not as if the Hi-Def formats are immune to this paper-thin ploy of "double dipping". Warner Bros released "Troy" on HD DVD when they obviously knew the Director's Cut was in progress. They also released a year 1-5 "Harry Potter" box set "trunk" on both Hi-Def formats, when everybody knows that there are two more films to come in the future. On Blu-ray Fox releases only the PG-13 cut of "Die Hard 4.0" (when DVD gets two versions), virtually barebones releases of films like "Night at the Museum" and "Eragon" (when the DVDs gets a feature packed 2 disc sets) and also released a virtually barebones the theatrical cut of the first "Fantastic Four" movie a few short months before DVD got the extended cut one a 2 disc set with some truly amazing supplements. Other studios have also done similar, on both Hi-Def formats.

I know people who have bought a Hi-Def disc, already expecting to "double dip" in the future. I'm one of them

It's possible some people are sitting out on purchasing major new Day and Date titles on any format because they expect better releases in the future – especially those who only buy DVDs.

In Warner Bros defence, I do acknowledge that TV on DVD continues to be a growth area, and reasonably could be expected to keep overall DVD sales high. But even this doesn't quite add-up. 2006 probably saw TV on DVD peak as regards the quality of the content. By 2007 long valued and beloved TV shows had already finished or were finishing their DVD runs – such as "M*A*S*H" and "Seinfeld". Even popular continuing series are in later seasons – such as "24" and "Lost" – which traditionally sell less than first season sets. Yes, other shows have risen up to fill some of the holes (like "Heroes") but by 2007, most of the gold in studio's back catalogues had already been mined.

And going back to "double dipping" – later complete sets such as for "M*A*S*H", "Twin Peaks" and "The O.C." with additional supplements – showed customers that they were better off not buying TV shows now, but waiting for cheaper, complete series releases later. And of course, when they do buy them later - they're cheaper so result in a drop of studio revenue. A case of the Studios digging their own holes through their own behavior?

So does anyone here feel that a 4% drop-off in DVD sales is unreasonable?

[Lazario]

I'll tell you one thing- I really hope this doesn't mean DVD distribution companies will start considering DVD a novelty. I know it's paranoid. But, sometimes business types love to jump to conclusions.


Anyway, I was hoping that Subject Heading was saying that DVDs were selling so well that they would eventually drop prices by 4% so that people could afford a little extra to buy more discs.

[Widdi]

In all honesty it doesn't surprise me. 2007 was a big year for movies, but I found myself buying very few DVDs last year in comparison to 2006 or 2005 or even 2004. There were a lot of movies I wanted to see in theaters, that I then saw, and had no desire to own on DVD. Other people I know felt the same way, and I'm sure many I don't know share this view as well.

I know I am one who holds out on buying because I know something better will come along (The Simpsons Movie is an excellent example of this). I got sick of buying a DVD only to have a better one come out a few months later.

The format war probably has a bit to do with it as people don't want to buy a lot of new DVDs if the format is about to become obsolete (which I personally doubt. *hides from the angry mob of HD preachers who seem to follow me on this board*) and they also don't want to buy a title on one format only to have it disappear in a year or two.

I know I'm staying away from the HD formats because I don't believe they are innovative enough to become a new standard anytime soon, and because I don't want to be screwed out of money I don't really have if one or both formats go belly up. I wouldn't be surprised to hear others have the same philosophy.

[MK Sharp]

2099net, I think you're quite right in all your observations.

It is undoubtedly the case that some kind of point has already been passed where most of the big obvious titles have already been released. On this very site there have been dissatisfied murmurings about Disney DVDs drying up and double-dipping, but that's only to be expected, really: all the animated features, most of the shorts, and a goodly selection of the live-action features have already been released. There's barely anything left to throw at the machine.

In some ways it's good, because DVD companies are thinking a little more left-of-field when it comes to picking titles. I'm splendidly pleased with the new Harry Langdon set that's just been released; but there is a sense that it's only come out now because all of the Chaplin, Keaton and Lloyd silent classics are already on DVD.

I feel that the studios are going to have to prepare themselves for smaller sales figures if they are going to mine the more arcane areas of their archives for DVD releases. In a way, Disney are ahead of the game here by only releasing very limited numbers of the Treasures sets in the expectation that that's all they'll be able to sell. Other studios aren't so canny, and are still cancelling TV series releases partway through due to disappointing sales without realising that they're selling about as many as they're ever likely to sell. They need to bite the bullet and accept that 20,000 sales is better than zero and adjust their income projections accordingly.

[TM2-Megatron]

I've been greatly cutting back on my DVD purchases as well... I'd be surprised if I bought more than 15 throughout all 2007.

Part of it's due to the format war, I suppose. I'm planning to pick up a hybrid Blu-Ray/HD-DVD combo drive for my computer in the near future, so I don't see the point in owning that many more movies on a format that's (slowly) on the way out. Don't get me wrong, personally I feel that it will be a long time yet before Blu-Ray or HD-DVD sales outstrip DVD... hell, a lot of households just recently upgraded to DVD in the last year or so. DVD will be with us for some time to come.

That said, I've personally never been one to stick with an old format for that long, so I do intend to start buying the HD formats soon. I'm not planning to buy a flat-panel HDTV for at least another year or so, though. My current CRT HDTV and computer will do well enough until then. I'll pick up a new set when the 120Hz models that are being released now have come down a bit; with some of these finally come a line of HDTVs that have picture quality I find a big enough improvement to justify the cost involved.