The importance of seeing movies on opening weekend

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 8:53 am

I have to assume we're all at this board because we love Disney movies. I'm also guessing that for the most part, we all want Disney movies to succeed.

I know this is common sense, but there are a lot of people out there who see movies based on how many other of their fellow human beings see them. The whole 'if you jump off a bridge' peer pressure, keeping up with the Joneses theory. Therefore, if a movie succeeds on opening weekend - more people will eventually opt to see the movie than not.

I guess this post is stemming from my disappointment at The Wild's opening weekend figures. It kills me that Madagascar is going to be known as the movie that was more financially successful, when The Wild is clearly the better movie, especially the animation....and to me the movie as a whole. I feel so bad for the people at C.O.R.E. that have spent YEARS making this creative and beautifully animated movie who now have to see it only make $35M domestically.

If you are a lover of Disney movies, and you know that you are going to see the movie sometime during it's theatrical run - why not go on opening weekend to help push the movie's success? Hypothetically speaking, say I wanted to see both The Wild and Scary Movie 4 in theaters. I'm more attached to Disney, but I really want to see Scary Movie 4. I would choose to go see the Wild first, because I'm more emotionally involved in it's overall success, and see Scary Movie 4 the next weekend.

I know that this won't work in all cases for all people - but does this make sense to anybody else?

Karushifa · Post by **Karushifa** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 9:26 am

Well, I know that box office analysts put a lot of stock into a film's opening weekend when trying to predict what that film's final domestic tally will be. I suppose their reasoning is that there will be a rush to see it the first weekend, and after that the release of other films to theaters will only increas the competition that the older films face. Such analysts often look at how much a movie's take drops each weekend - if a film makes, say, 30% less in its second weekend than in its opening weekend, it is said to have good "legs". A film can have a super opening weekend but still drop rapidly in revenue if bad word-of-mouth gets out, and the movie will have bad legs.

It's not unheard of for the opposite to happen, that is for a film to have a rather poor opening, but substantially good legs. The best example I can think of is with The Emperor's New Groove, which had a tepid opening but paltry to almost non-existent drops in attendance over the following weeks, leading it to a final domestic tally of about $90 million when most film analysts were expecting it to tank out at $50 million or less. In TENG's case, very good word-of-mouth allowed it to overcome low opening numbers.

Another thing to consider is that this is a relatively weak time for movies. We just had Easter weekend, but many kid's schedules may have been monopolized with other things, namely egg hunts, family travel and such, leaving little time for movies when they were out from school. Spring is typically a weak time for movies anyhow, and the concurrence of Ice Age 2's theater run likely didn't help. It's possible that if The Wild had been released in the stronger post-Memorial Day or Thanksgiving seasons (remember, no Harry Potter this year), it would have shown stronger numbers. Madagascar, for example, was released in late May just as a lot of kids were getting out for the summer, so it subsequently reaped in a ton of business.

I'm sorry for such a long post...but the key thing to remember here is that no film is released in a vacuum. Any of a number of other factors, from competing films to seasonal events, can greatly affect a film's profits. My best advice is, if you want The Wild to succeed, then tell as many people as you can about how good you thought it was, and hopefully they in turn will contribute to its theater run.

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 9:41 am

I realize all of the above that you are saying...

I just am particularly puzzled why this movie wasn't seen by more UD members - professed 'lovers' of Disney animation. Of UD's 2,914 members (although I have no idea how many of those are active posters) only 10 claim to have seen the movie. Of those 10, nine of them really liked the movie. Two others would have liked to have seen it, but saw Scary Movie instead.

I guess I was just trying to put a bug in people's ear, that if they plan to see the movie because they love all things presented by Disney -- then why not do it on opening weekend to help push success as much as possible.

I, for one, hope that more of the general public give this movie a chance. I'll try to get at least a few people I know to go and see it.

...and Disney really should get some more advisors on their staff to analyze the best weekends to release movies, IMO.

Karushifa · Post by **Karushifa** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 10:18 am

First, I can pretty much guarantee that more than 10 UD members are going to end up seeing The Wild in theaters. The fact that it opened on Good Friday may have kept some from seeing it opening weekend because of Easter, which unlike other extended weekends such as Memorial Day and Labor Day, is monopolized at least in part by church activities. While it may seem like people have a better opportunity to see movies, the reality is that in years past Easter has been the most lackluster of the extended weekends for the film industry. I'm guessing that more than a few folks here just had a lot of non-movie related things to do.

Second, while opening weekend can be a litmus test of how well a film performs, I think it is ultimately the final tally that tells a studio whether or not a film was a good box office investment (Disney is likely banking on DVD success of The Wild, which for a kid-friendly film like this is almost never in doubt). So as long as people see it in the first-run (as opposed to budget) theaters during its run, this will contribute to its success.

EDIT: Oh, and as for Scary Movie 4...who knows why people chose to see it instead, but here are a few possibilities: 1) they are big fans of the franchise, and this was a hotly anticipated release with a lot of very funny TV spots; 2) they wanted to see a movie with some friends and would have voted for The Wild but their non-Disneyphile friends opted for SM4; 3) they were figuring they would end up seeing The Wild at some point anyway but were more curious to see what all the fuss over SM4 was about. It's probably not an overall better film, but I'd say it was more anticipated overall. If this extends to Disney fans, then so be it. That's not to say that they won't see The Wild at all.

BrandonH · Post by **BrandonH** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 10:24 am

Karushifa speaks the truth. Easter weekend is a busy time for many people, and movies tend to be lower on the priority list.

The Wild could be a movie that has a second weekend almost as high as the first weekend, due to the timing of its release. As long as people do go out to see it, that's what counts.

2099net · Post by **2099net** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 10:35 am

kbehm29 wrote:...and Disney really should get some more advisors on their staff to analyze the best weekends to release movies, IMO.

But they can't do anymore when it comes to releasing movies. There's only so many weeks in a year, and all the prime ones are taken - either by Disney's movies or the competition's.

Besides everyone here knows Pixar gets the best slots from Disney... every time.

Besides Disney only distributed The Wild. They're "ownership" of the characters, and thus the lucrative merchandise market is small, if not possibly non-existant. That's why there's no Wild beanies in the Disney Store etc. I guess Disney just didn't bother with The Wild. I suspect it was one of their "plan B" relationships to be nurtured in the event of Pixar leaving them.

Karushifa · Post by **Karushifa** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 10:43 am

2099net wrote:Besides everyone here knows Pixar gets the best slots from Disney... every time.

Cars is slated for a 9 June stateside release...this didn't preclude Disney from targeting a winter holiday or even late May release. I think Thanksgiving would have been a great window for them, as there is no Harry Potter juggernaut to worry about this year and Meet the Robinsons isn't slated for release until March 2007.

I know that there's a lot of animosity towards Pixar here, but...please, let's try to keep them out of the fray for once.

2099net · Post by **2099net** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 10:49 am

Karushifa wrote:
2099net wrote:Besides everyone here knows Pixar gets the best slots from Disney... every time.
Cars is slated for a 9 June stateside release...this didn't preclude Disney from targeting a winter holiday or even late May release. I think Thanksgiving would have been a great window for them, as there is no Harry Potter juggernaut to worry about this year and Meet the Robinsons isn't slated for release until March 2007.

I know that there's a lot of animosity towards Pixar here, but...please, let's try to keep them out of the fray for once.

Well, I suppose it was a pot-shot, but it was meant in good nature.

Dreamwork's Over the Hedge also has a late-May release, and you're assuming The Wild was finished in time for an earlier release.

What it comes down to is there's a limited number of weeks suitable for "Family Films" to open on, and due to the intense competition - especially this year - no single film is going to get an ideal opening. Even Cars.

Karushifa · Post by **Karushifa** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 11:02 am

2099net wrote:Dreamwork's Over the Hedge also has a late-May release, and you're assuming The Wild was finished in time for an earlier release.

What it comes down to is there's a limited number of weeks suitable for "Family Films" to open on, and due to the intense competition - especially this year - no single film is going to get an ideal opening. Even Cars.

Ah, well. As some guy once said, "better a cheap shot than boredom"

Actually, I was suggesting that Disney wait until this coming holiday season to release The Wild...perhaps use the extra time to build up some marketing momentum, and capitalize in the release gap between Happy Feet (17 Nov) and Eragon (15 Dec). Or, possibly even wait until Christmas. Hell, even Labor Day weekend would have been better than Good Friday for a movie opening. The particular weakness of the Easter box office has been demonstrated before, and I'd think at least someone at Disney knew that going in.

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 11:31 am

Karushifa wrote:even Labor Day weekend would have been better than Good Friday for a movie opening.

Do people who celebrate Easter actively in a church really have that much going on on Good Friday? I understand how people could have been busy with egg hunts on Saturday, and church on Sunday - but Friday? I guess since I don't attend church on a regular basis that the extent of Easter to me is dinner at my mom's house on Easter Sunday.

I myself had the day off work (one of our nine holidays we get each year) and my kids had off school. They are too young (10, 8, 8, and 3), imo, to see Scary Movie 4 - heck, they didn't even ask to see it - so it was a perfect opportunity for me to take them to see The Wild.

creid · Post by **creid** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 11:33 am

Unfortunately, The Wild had a lot of things going against it:

1) Was not a Disney product and profitability was more limited.
2) Advertising was very limited.
3) Madgascar similar story stole its thunder.
4) Easter is not film weekend.
5) Ice Age was released only a couple week before.
6) Luke-warm reviews did not help.
7) There is enough CGI animated movies people can be selective.

I would expect a increase or only a minor decrease in revenues for the next couple weeks, however it unlikely to be a big hit.

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 11:38 am

creid wrote:Unfortunately, The Wild had a lot of things going against it:

1) Was not a Disney product and profitability was more limited.
2) Advertising was very limited.
3) Madgascar similar story stole its thunder.
4) Easter is not film weekend.
5) Ice Age was released only a couple week before.

I would expect a increase or only a minor decrease in revenues for the next couple weeks, however it unlikely to be a big hit.

So even though it's a good theater-worthy film, it gets the shaft. That's so unfair! But, I beg to differ with #2 - I saw plenty of advertising for this movie, and McDonalds even has the toys out for the next 6 weeks or whatever...
I hope it makes at least 40M or more.

Karushifa · Post by **Karushifa** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 11:43 am

kbehm29 wrote:Do people who celebrate Easter actively in a church really have that much going on on Good Friday? I understand how people could have been busy with egg hunts on Saturday, and church on Sunday - but Friday? I guess since I don't attend church on a regular basis that the extent of Easter to me is dinner at my mom's house on Easter Sunday.

I myself had the day off work (one of our nine holidays we get each year) and my kids had off school. They are too young (10, 8, 8, and 3), imo, to see Scary Movie 4 - heck, they didn't even ask to see it - so it was a perfect opportunity for me to take them to see The Wild.

Being Jewish, I have no idea what the Good Friday protocol is, either

I suppose for folks who went out of town, Good Friday may have been a big travel day. Or, some people might have spent the day cleaning, shopping, picking up their Honey Baked hams, etc. for Sunday. The Wild's Good Friday gross was $4.1 million, leaving the other $5.5 million in opening revenue in the latter two days of the weekend, so it was the busiest day of the three, but probably not as busy as it could have been at some other point in the year.

Mainly I mentioned Good Friday as a bad opener day because Fridays are when the majority of films are released (there are Wednesday releases too, but those aren't as prevalent).

Just Myself · Post by **Just Myself** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 11:54 am

Two reasons why it flopped

1. This movie sucked
2. Madagascar, as mediocre as it is, was a much better movie

End of story, buh bye.

dvdjunkie · Post by **dvdjunkie** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 12:29 pm

As a former theater manager, I can tell you that Easter Weekend (Good Friday until Sunday evening) is the slowest weekend of the year for movie goers. If you aren't in the religious group then it is a perfect time to go to the movies, but other than that, most theaters cut their staffs down to minimums because of the small attendance figures.

As far as preference of movies goes: "The Wild" did lack for any publicity, trailers in the theater and on television were very minimal at best. There were no other types of 'hype' for the film and no one realized it was coming out this past weekend. Plus the fact, the trailers did make it look a lot like "Madagascar" and people had the "been there, done that" attitude about the film.

There is no talking about people's tastes in movies, i.e., their liking of junk like "Scary Movie 4" with all its toilet humor and bad jokes and degrading comedy, but give them a plus, the movie had tons of pre-release publicity (Just look how long we have been talking about it here on UD), and their trailers were perfectly placed on television and in the theaters. And their newpaper advertising was way out of the stratosphere and everyone knew it was coming.

Here's hoping that this coming weekend, and the days that follow will help "The Wild" overcome a poor choice of weekend release. Having seen the movie twice now, I feel that it deserves a lot better attendance than it is getting. For those 'naysayers', it is not a copy of "Madagascar", it is a very original story with some very funny dialogue (aimed at the under 12 age group, for the most part), and is not overly long, and I found it to be very entertaining. Some of the voice-over choices could have been better, why Eddy Lizard for the Koala when Denis Leary or Dennis Miller would have been a lot better, is beyond me. But that is another thread on UD.

kbehm29 · Post by **kbehm29** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 12:48 pm

dvdjunkie wrote:Here's hoping that this coming weekend, and the days that follow will help "The Wild" overcome a poor choice of weekend release. Having seen the movie twice now, I feel that it deserves a lot better attendance than it is getting.

I forgot that it's Easter break for all the elementary school kids! Duh - I have three of them myself.

The daily numbers this week should stay much higher than normal. Hopefully this will add a huge kick to The Wild's overall total! In fact, The Wild was the #3 overall movie for Monday. Box Office Mojo doesn't have Tuesdays figures up, but I have high hopes that it's still #3.

I feel sorta better now...

Lars Vermundsberget · Post by **Lars Vermundsberget** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 3:23 pm

It seems to me that these posts described the "market" pretty well.

For myself, however, it is usually not important to see a movie... for quite a while. If it can't stand the test of time, I probably won't bother. That works for me, but I guess I'm slightly weird.

reyquila · Post by **reyquila** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 5:29 pm

My practice and personal policy is to watch Disney Movies in their opening weekend. I invite my sisters and their kids and we all go the see the movies.

TheSequelOfDisney · Post by **TheSequelOfDisney** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 5:38 pm

kbehm29 wrote:
Karushifa wrote:even Labor Day weekend would have been better than Good Friday for a movie opening.
Do people who celebrate Easter actively in a church really have that much going on on Good Friday? I understand how people could have been busy with egg hunts on Saturday, and church on Sunday - but Friday? I guess since I don't attend church on a regular basis that the extent of Easter to me is dinner at my mom's house on Easter Sunday.

I actually spent almost the whole day of Good Friday at church, not because I'm very relgious though, even though I kind of am. I actually spent most of the time because my sisters do liturgical dance and.................. Well that's kind of getting off the subject. Anyway, I still don't think that Disney picked a good time to release The Wild, since most people who influence me go to church.

Disney Lover · Post by **Disney Lover** » Wed Apr 19, 2006 5:46 pm

I don't know about anyone else but I got kind of annoyed by the whole "all Disney movie lovers should see those movies opening weekend" thing. For starters, not everyone on this board likes every Disney movie that they have seen or heard about. And second, not everyone has the ability to see a movie opening weekend or even during the run the movie has in the theaters. I know I don't.

Now, as far as The Wild goes I didn't even realize it had come out this past weekend. I've had a lot of other things on my mind. Plus I think I may have seen one commercial for The Wild on tv and that was over a month ago at least. Though I know I'm not going to see it in the theaters cause I'm not going to have an opportunity to. I'll Netflix it when it comes to DVD though I'm sure.

For me, it's gotten to the point where I hardly ever see movies in the theaters. Mainly cause of time constraints but also because with the costs of tickets and popcorn being so high I have to really really want to see a movie for me to spend over $10 to see it in the theater. Any more I just spend a few extra dollars and get it on dvd a few months later and I can watch it any time I want.

Anyway, sorry I want off like that.

Tabbi <3

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The importance of seeing movies on opening weekend

The importance of seeing movies on opening weekend