Predict how much the 2005 Disney films will earn

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MickeyMousePal
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Post by MickeyMousePal »

Some new and revised predictions:

Roving Mars $8 M
Glory Road $20 M
The Shaggy Dog $56 M
Eight Below $30 M


Cars $190 M
Pirates of the Carbbean: Dead Man's Chest $ 270
Stick it $ 35 M
The Wild $ 120 M
Invincible $ 45 M
The Santa Clause 3 $ 150
Meet the Robinsons $ 130 M
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9:30 American Dad

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castleinthesky
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Post by castleinthesky »

Updates:

The Chronicles of Narnia $225 M
Roving Mars $8 M
Eight Below $35 M

I think I havn't done these yet, but If I have use these picks:

Glory Road $25 M
The Shaggy Dog $70 M

New:

Stick It! $30 M
The Wild $50 M
Cars $170 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $310 M
Invincible $ 23 M
The Santa Clause 3 $ 120
Meet the Robinsons $ 145 M
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Luke
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Post by Luke »

Revised predictions noted. You have until Thursday night to update your guesstimates on <i>Narnia</i>, which is the last Disney film of 2005.

Two films have closed in the past week.

<font color="#CE0018"><b>Sky High</b></font>
Opened July 27, 2005. Closed December 1, 2005.

Final Gross: $63,946,815
Average Prediction: $51,571,429
Closest Prediction: $65,000,000 by PatrickvD (98.4% accurate)


Rest of predictions:
2) Mushu - $60.6 M (94.8% accurate)
3) ichabod - $60 M (93.8% accurate)
4) Just Myself - $68.2 M (93.3% accurate)
5) Jack, TheLittleMerman - $70 M (90.5% accurate)
7) pinkrenata, AwallaceUNC - $54 M (84.4% accurate)
9) Lucylover1986, yankees, Timon/pumba fan, lord-of-sith, cydney - $50 M (78.1% accurate)
14) 2099net - $45 M (70.4% accurate)
15) TaleAsOldAsTime - $43.2 M (67.5% accurate)
16) SofaKing38122 - $85 M (67.1% accurate)
17) Luke - $40 M (62.6% accurate)
18) castleinthesky - $35 M (54.7% accurate)
19) Prince Eric - $30 M (46.9% accurate)
20) Wonderlicious - $28 M (43.8% accurate)
21) MickeyMousePal - $25 M (39.1% accurate)


<font color="#6B6942"><b>The Greatest Game Ever Played</b></font>
Opened September 30, 2005. Closed December 1, 2005.

Final Gross: $15,337,393
Average Prediction: $26,904,762
Closest Prediction: $15,000,000 by Lucylover1986 (97.8% accurate)


Rest of predictions:
2) yankees- $16 M (95.7% accurate)
3) Jack, TheLittleMerman - $13 M (84.7% accurate)
5) Luke - $11 M (71.7% accurate)
6) Mushu - $20.4 M (67% accurate)
7) SofaKing38122 - $21 M (63.1% accurate)
8) castleinthesky - $9 M (58.7% accurate)
9) 2099net - $22 M (56.5% accurate)
10) pinkrenata - $8 M (52.2% accurate)
11) Just Myself, lord-of-sith, Prince Eric, cydney - $25 M (37% accurate)
15) TaleAsOldAsTime - $25.6 M (33.1% accurate)
16) PatrickvD - $27 M (24% accurate)
17) AwallaceUNC - $30 M (4.4% accurate)
18) ichabod - $38 M (0% accurate)
19) Wonderlicious - $48 M (0% accurate)
20) MickeyMousePal - $65 M (0% accurate)
21) Timon/Pumba fan - $83 M (0% accurate)

<hr>

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $290 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $249.0 M
Cars $180 M
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $124,118,837 M, closest - lord-of-sith, $125 M)
Meet the Robinsons $137.5 M
The Santa Clause 3 $135 M
The Wild $85 M
The Shaggy Dog $68.9 M
Eight Below $39 M
Invincible $34 M
Stick It! $32.5 M
Glory Road $32.2 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,504,854, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $9.2 M

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (final gross: $66,023,816, closest - Lucylover1986, $70 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Sky High $51.6 M (final gross: $63,946,815, closest - PatrickvD, $65 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (final gross: $19,478,106, closest - Lucylover1986, $25 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest -castleinthesky, $25 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $26.9 M (final gross: $15,337,393, closest - Lucylover1986, $15 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (final gross: $4,711,096, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)


By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,504,854, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (final gross: $4,711,096, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (final gross: $66,023,816, closest - Lucylover1986, $70 M)
Sky High $51.6 M (current gross: $63,234,522, closest - PatrickvD, $65 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (final gross: $19,478,106, closest - Lucylover1986, $25 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $26.9 M (final gross: $15,331,289, closest - Lucylover1986, $15 M)

Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $124,118,837, closest - lord-of-sith, $125 M)

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $249.0 M

Glory Road $32.2 M
Roving Mars $9.2 M
Eight Below $39 M
The Shaggy Dog $68.9 M
The Wild $85 M
Stick It! $32.5 M
Cars $180 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $290 M
Invincible $34 M
The Santa Clause 3 $135 M
Meet the Robinsons $137.5 M
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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Post by SofaKing381222 »

Some new, Some Old

The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe- $243 million
Glory Road- $22 million
Roving Mars- $11 million
Eight Below- $34 million
The Shaggy Dog- $107 million
Stick It!- $47 million
The Wild- $95 million
Cars- $212 million
Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest- $298 million
Invincible- $27 million
The Santa Clause 3- $102 million
Meet the Robinsons- $154 million
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Post by Lucylover1986 »

Here are my 2006 predictions. I'll definitely have to revise some of them but I'll post right away:

Glory Road $30 million
Roving Mars $7 million
Eight Below $25 million
The Shaggy Dog $60 million
The Wild $70 million
Stick It! $30 million
Cars $260 million
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $275 million
Invincible $30 million
The Santa Clause 3 $160 million
Meet the Robinsons $100 million
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Post by PatrickvD »

Revising:

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion The Witch & The Wardrobe: $308 million

------------------------------

If Disney marketing to chruches works out well, it could be really big. I'm curious how this will do. I'm probaply way too high but whatever..

Glory Road $25 million
Roving Mars $4 million
Eight Below $19 million
The Shaggy Dog $57 million
The Wild $18 million
Stick It! $26 million
Cars $304 million
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $413 million
Invincible $32 million
The Santa Clause 3 $170 million
Meet the Robinsons $109 million

--------------------------

I've made low predictions for all movies with the exception of their summer and winter tentpole pictures. I have a feeling people will absolutely flock to see Pirates 2 wich will be the Shrek 2 of next summer. Cars will have a Finding Nemo-like performance, because Pixar never fails to deliver a good film. The Santa Clause will have a Polar Express run.. and well pretty much like the first two Santa Clause films, only slightly bigger this time... though I don't know why. Meet the Robinsons I'm not sure of, if the trailers are really good, better than Chicken Little, it could surprise, but at this point I'm going low.
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Post by Luke »

New predictions noted and after two weekends of the film destined to be Disney's top 2005 grosser in play, I think it's time for an update...

By Predicted Gross:
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $313.2 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248.4 M (current gross: $113,169,644, closest - cydney, $130 M)
Cars $227.2 M
Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $128,829,279 M, closest - Luke/yankees, $130 M)
The Santa Clause 3 $140 M
Meet the Robinsons $127.6 M
The Wild $70.6 M
The Shaggy Dog $68.3 M
Eight Below $35.7 M
Stick It! $33.6 M
Invincible $31.4 M
Glory Road $30.9 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,513,883, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $9.2 M

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (final gross: $66,023,816, closest - Lucylover1986, $70 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Sky High $51.6 M (final gross: $63,946,815, closest - PatrickvD, $65 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (final gross: $19,478,106, closest - Lucylover1986, $25 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest -castleinthesky, $25 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $26.9 M (final gross: $15,337,393, closest - Lucylover1986, $15 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (final gross: $4,711,096, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)


By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,513,883, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (final gross: $4,711,096, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (final gross: $66,023,816, closest - Lucylover1986, $70 M)
Sky High $51.6 M (current gross: $63,234,522, closest - PatrickvD, $65 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (final gross: $19,478,106, closest - Lucylover1986, $25 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $26.9 M (final gross: $15,331,289, closest - Lucylover1986, $15 M)

Chicken Little $141.8 M (current gross: $128,829,279 M, closest - Luke/yankees, $130 M)
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $248. M (current gross: $113,169,644, closest - cydney, $130 M)


Glory Road $30.9 M
Roving Mars $9.2 M
Eight Below $35.7 M
The Shaggy Dog $68.3 M
The Wild $70.6 M
Stick It! $33.6 M
Cars $227.2 M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $313.2 M
Invincible $31.4 M
The Santa Clause 3 $140 M
Meet the Robinsons $127.6 M
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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Post by PatrickvD »

well the year is almost over and Narnia is on a roll! It just set the record for highest third monday and tuesday and is currently at $174 million and should be at $210 million by the end of next weekend. Amazing.
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Post by Luke »

Unless something drastically changes with the three films still playing (<i>Aliens of the Deep</i>, <i>Narnia</i>, and <i>Chicken Little</i>), it looks like <b>pinkrenata</b> will be the winner of the 2005 game and will thus receive the 2005 film on DVD of her choice. As it is, anyone interested in playing for 2006 is encouraged to make predictions for the following films:

Glory Road
Roving Mars
Eight Below
The Shaggy Dog
The Wild
Stick It!
Cars
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Invincible
The Santa Clause 3
Meet the Robinsons
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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Post by Lucylover1986 »

How many did she get right? I got 4 correct myself. Not to be a sore loser or anything. I just think I won unless I'm missing something.
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Post by Luke »

Lucylover1986 wrote:How many did she get right? I got 4 correct myself. Not to be a sore loser or anything. I just think I won unless I'm missing something.
Winning is determined not by the number of right predictions, but by the overall accuracy of all predictions, based on average. Right now, you're in a fairly close third but your predictions for <i>Chicken</i> and <i>Narnia</i> are already lower than what they have earned and lower than what she predicted. Getting the top prediction on 1/3rd of the movies is very impressive, however.
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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Post by Lucylover1986 »

Ok. I'll do better in 2006 then. I thought it was decided by whoever predicts the most correct but I reread your first post on the DVD and it is by overall accuracy. I would have raised my Narnia one then since I figured it'd head north of $200 million but there were so many predicts in the $200 million range I figured there was a better chance for Narnia to make just shy of $200 million then me somehow getting the closest prediction. That was my strategy on that one. But as I said I'll be ready for 2006 now that I know the rules! :lol:
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Post by yankees »

The Wild: Like Vailant Disney didnt make this film they just advertsied it. While I think it looks okay... too many people are going to think that looks like Madagascar. This film also comes out april 14th and thats 2 weeks after Ice Age 2... so familes may be more interested in that. Also there are so many CGI films coming out this year that alot of familes wont know what to see so they may skip this one. Overall this film should so okay.... it wont make as much as Chicken Little but it wont flop like Vailant.

My guess is that The Wild will make 60million

The Santa Clause 3
This film will do good at the box office. Alot of familes like christmas movies and the first 2 santa clause movies made alot..... since people were a little dissapointed with the 2nd one... It wont make as much but it will still make a good amount where they can make a 4th film(which i dont tjink they will do).

My guess is that The Santa Clause 3 will make 140million.

Pirates of The Carribbean 2: Dead Mans Chest: In my opinion it is hard to prodect how much this film will make. There are 2 ways I look at this film.

1. One Of The Reasons why Pirates 1 was so successful was because of Johnny, Orlando, and Keira..... The girls loved Johnney and Orlando and they guys loved Keira... so the fans may have a DVD of it or a calender... so maybe some of them wont see the sequel because some of the auidence didnt even know what it was about.

2. Well back in 2003 one of the best rated movies of the year was Pirates... everyone loved it and said it was the best pirate film. It got fantastic reviews, did great at the box office, and DVD sales were great...When I went to see Narnia... there was a teaser for Pirates 2 and everyone was cheering when it was on.

So I think tons of people are going to see this film because everyone loved the first one... its only problem is that its coming out one week after Superman Returns (which will probblay be the biggestfilm this year or it may be a king kong problem).... so maybe Pirates wont have huge opening numbers... but it will probblay make more than the original by the end of the summer.

Problay make around 100million in its first 5 days.

I think Pirates of The Carribbean 2 will make around 320million

Cars: This is Pixars newest and last film to be made. While the teasers dont make the movie look good. Im sure people will see ot because it has the name Pixar written all over it... plus it has a good director and voice cast... Cars wont make as much money as some of the other latest because like I said earlier it doesnt look as good and plus... I think alot of familes will see Dreamworks Over The Hedge over memorial so that may stop it a little.

My guess is that Cars will make 220million
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Post by PatrickvD »

Luke wrote:Unless something drastically changes with the three films still playing (<i>Aliens of the Deep</i>, <i>Narnia</i>, and <i>Chicken Little</i>), it looks like <b>pinkrenata</b> will be the winner of the 2005 game and will thus receive the 2005 film on DVD of her choice.
wow, that's pretty good for her! :) Hope my predictions are better next year.
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Post by yankees »

Glory Road: While It does look like a good movie I think it will flop for these reasons.
-January is the worst time to release a movie because people are either away sking or snowboarding.
-Like I said it looks good... but ppl kno that January means bad films so they might think that this is bad.
-Teens will be busy because in school midterms will be happening... plus its winter so they will probblay want to do a winter actvity instead of sitting in a movie.
-Little kids probblay wont find this one really interesting at all.... I think that they would rather see Narnia again.
-This movie doesnt have a big star to get anyones attention.
-Plus I think some people are sick of this type of movie becaue it sounds like it has the same story as all the other ones did.

So those are alot of reasons why Glory road wont do that well... but there are basketball fans out there who will see this... plus maybe adults will wanna see this..... I think Glory Road though would do a lot better if they released it around april, august, or october of this year.

Glory Road probblay wont be number 1 opening weekend (actully Narnia and Kong will probblay be at the top till Febuary).... so expect 8million opening weekend

Overall I think Glory Road will make about 22million overall.



The Shaggy Dog
People are probblay thinking in there heads... another remake??... This movie is known because the trailer has been basically playin in Harry Potter and Narnia... but people are probblay sick of this... it comes out in march... so alot of familes havent been to the movies since december so that is the only thing that might give this movoe money....but i think people will rather wait a few weeks and watch Ice Age 2 instead.

Im guessing about 12million opening weekend and in total the movie should make around 32million total
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Post by yankees »

Meet The Robinsons: Like Chicken Little this film will do well but it wont be a blockbuster... its released in December... familes go to the movies then so expect it to do as good as maybe Chicken Little but maybe a little less because... other films will come out.

Expect 30million on its first weekend... and in total the movie should make around 122million
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2006 Movies

Post by NarniaDis »

Is there going to be a separate thread for the 2006 movies or are we going to stick with this one?
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Re: 2006 Movies

Post by Luke »

NarniaDis wrote:Is there going to be a separate thread for the 2006 movies or are we going to stick with this one?
This one. I'm hoping another moderator can edit my first post and the title at some point to reflect the 2006 movies that can now be predicted. If you look at my last post in this thread (before this one, that is), you can see what there is.
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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2006 Disney Movies

Post by NarniaDis »

Thanks Luke.

Here are Mine....

Glory Road $45m
Roving Mars $5.5
Eight Below $30m
Shaggy Dog $85
The Wild $25
Stick It $25
Cars $270
Pirates 2 $350
Invincable $30
Santa Claus 3 $140
Meet THe Robinsons $135

After the last year I am going low on most, may change as the year progresses.
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Post by Lucylover1986 »

I'm going to raise my Glory Road prediction to $50 million.
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