Predict how much the 2005 Disney films will earn

[Luke]

Updated with the actual weekend numbers for April 15-17.

<i>Pooh's Heffalump Movie</i> is more or less done, and BoxOfficeMojo has stopped tallying the film's numbers so to sum up:


<b>Pooh's Heffalump Movie</b>
Opened February 11, 2005. Closed April 2005.

Final Gross: $18,098,433
Closest Prediction: $20,000,000 by Lucylover1986 (89% accurate)

Rest of predictions:
2) pinkrenata - $23 M
3) Jack, PatrickvD - $27 M
5) Luke - $30 M
6) TheLittleMerman, castleinthesky - $32 M
8) MickeyMousePal - $40 M

<hr>

By Predicted Gross:

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $236 M
Chicken Little $159.4 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $127.5 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $96.1 M
The Shaggy Dog $79.9 M
Sky High $59.1 M
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $103,893,773, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Valiant $45.7 M
Glory Road $42.0 M
Ice Princess $40.1 M (current gross: $22,256,287, closest - toonstuff, $20 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $17.9 M
Howl's Moving Castle $15.5 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $4,449,581, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)

Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $4,449,581, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $103,893,773, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (current gross: $22,256,287, closest - toonstuff, $20 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $127.5 M
Howl's Moving Castle $15.5 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $96.1 M
Sky High $59.1 M
Valiant $45.7 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $17.9 M
Chicken Little $159.4 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $236 M

Glory Road $42.0 M
The Shaggy Dog $79.9 M

<i>A Lot Like Love</i> opens this Friday and it's Touchstone, but the next release of interest is <i>The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy</i> on the 29th. If you'd like to revise your predictions for this, try to do it by the end of this week.

[yankees]

Chicken Little
Opening Gross: 35million
Total: 172million

Im predcting that much because of its November release.. It should probblay be at the top till Nov. 18 When Harry Potter Comes. Then It Should Make around 30million on Thanksgiving weekend.

Herbie Fully Loaded:
Weekend Gross: 22million
Total: 56million

I think Herbie would make alot more money if it came out around now or sometime in August. It has too much competition around it like War Of The Worlds, Batman Begins, Star Wars, Madagascar, and more. If they released this around August It would have probb made around 100million because of Lindsay Lohan , and herbie. Only Little Kids And There moms would probb see this on 4th of july weekend because the dadas and boys are more interesyted in War Of The Worlds And Batman.

The Hitchikers Guide To Galaxy
Weekend Gross: 50 Million
Total: 115 million

The Hitchickers Is Goin To Be A Type Of Movie Where Its Gonna Make Alot Of cash On The First Weekend But Then Make Little After That. I say that because after April 29 Theres Tons Of Competition Like Kingdom Of Heaven, Star Wars, and Madagascar. So When Those Movies Come Out It Will MakE Some Money But Not Alot. But People Do Wanna See This Movie So Im Expecting It To make More Than 100million. My prediction Is Will Do Good First Weekend After That It Will Be Alright Then Probb Expect A lot more Money around Memorial Weekend.

Valiant
Weekend Gross: 27million
Total:75 million

This is a hard movie to predict IMO for many reasons. There are no trailers for this in theaters, No ads on TV, and no talk about it. It does Look good and Ricky Gervias is in it Then theres more people in it that adults know. This one also doesnt look very girly so I Dont Know If 4 yr old girls are interested in this. IMO this is more of a father/son movie that will happen and since most dads dont usually take them to movies like this without the family it might make just a little. My prediction.. I expect this to do as well as the Spongebob Movie.

The Lion Witch And The Wardrobe
Opening Gross: 72million
Total: 220million

This film is going to do very mell. Not make up as much as the potter films but it will still do well. It comes out at the perfect time for many reasons. By December Kids Probblay saw Harry Potter And Chicken Little Already, and Its The Only Kids Movie Out Around The Holiday Seasons (Forgot bout Barnyard ). It looks interesting so parents will take them to see tis. Overall This Movie wont have much competition for the family genre. The Only problem is only that people who went away mite wanna see CL an HP4 first. But overall Disney is going to ruule the 05 Holiday season
________
Mywebcamshookup

[Luke]

Cool, new predictions. And clearly laid-out reasoning for said predictions too. Thanks for participating, yankees!

[PatrickvD]

Okay, I wanna change my prediction for Hitchhiker, am I do that in a new post or edit my original post? I knew you wrote it down in this thread like a 100 times, but I can't find it.

anyway, if in a new post, I am gonna change it to $145 million

[Luke]

Okay, I wanna change my prediction for Hitchhiker, am I do that in a new post or edit my original post? I knew you wrote it down in this thread like a 100 times, but I can't find it.

anyway, if in a new post, I am gonna change it to $145 million

Thank you. That's the right way. Like Edna Mode, I never look back, dahling!

[PatrickvD]

Okay, I wanna change my prediction for Hitchhiker, am I do that in a new post or edit my original post? I knew you wrote it down in this thread like a 100 times, but I can't find it.

anyway, if in a new post, I am gonna change it to $145 million

Thank you. That's the right way. Like Edna Mode, I never look back, dahling!

yes! too much talk, useless words, gabagaba

[chaychay102royal]

The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe is supposed to be the highest grossing film this year??? Really??

[yankees]

No Probb Luke

Sky High
Weekend Gross: 17million
Total: 50million

While This Film Should Make Alot More Than Around The World In 80 Days or Thunderbirds. It wont make as much as most recent superhero flicks such as spidey an xmen. IMO adults I dont think will wanna go see this movie. While There have been no ads or posters in theaters it looks very kiddyish. This is the type of movie on a rainy day a traveling camp would go see. Also Kids Would Likely see this with there friends. Overall it will do alright but not great. I expect this is they type of movie that Spy Kids fans would see so expet it to make 20million less than spy kids 2.

The Shaggy Dog
Weekend Gross: 27million
Total: 85million

Disney remakes have been doing good. The 98 parent trap made around 70million and Freaky Friday surpassed 100million. This is The first movie Tim Allen hasnt appeard in a while thats not about Christmas Tim Allen Though Has Been In many flops Though. Sure Christmas With The Kranks Did Alright and The Sanata Clause 2 Did Great (Lets Hope Same for 3) but other films Like Big Trouble Didnt do Very Well. But adults may give this filma a chance cause it has a decent cast and they wanna see a remake. I dnt kno how much this film will entertain kids but it has a dog so im sure they wanna see it. What made Freaky Friday make so much money is cause of the cast and the remake. This Should Do The Same But Make A Little Less. Now Ur Probb Asking How Can This Make More Than Herbie? Like I Said Earlier Herbie Is Going Against Batman And War Of The Worlds. So Expect This Film To Be In The Mid 80millon.

The Greatest Game Ever Played
Weekend Gross: 10million
Total: 35million

IMO Disney Sports Films Are Great. They Add Something That Makes It So Good. These Sport Films Are So Good That Adults Will See Them Without Kids. They All Have Done Well In Theaters AndDid Good With DVD sales. I Wish I could Say The Same For This. First Of all Its About Golf So Idk How many are Gonna wanna see this. Kids Will Be Bored Bout Golf. And It Stars A Teen. So When You Add That Together It Will Make Little Money. I Wish I Could Say Better. Expct this To make Less Than Friday Night Lights.
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Honda Ridgeline

[Lucylover1986]

Hitchhiker's opens on Friday so tomorrow or today in my time zone would be last day to make any predictions!

[Luke]

Well according to www.Showbizdata.com , <i>Hitchhiker's</i> nearly doubled <i>XXX: State of the Union</i> on Friday:

Friday, April, 29, 2005 Title Daily Total
HITCHHIKER'S GUIDE TO THE GALAXY 8.1 8.1
XXX: STATE OF THE UNION 4.4 4.4
INTERPRETER, THE 4.2 33.5
AMITYVILLE HORROR, THE 2.6 49.5
LOT LIKE LOVE, A 1.7 11.2
SAHARA 1.6 52.8
FEVER PITCH 1.1 33.9
KUNG FU HUSTLE 1.0 10.5
GUESS WHO .7 64.0
SIN CITY .6 71.8

That's good. I'm not sure why people thought these would be neck-and-neck. <i>Hitchhiker's</i> should have $25-$30 million by the end of the weekend, which is a pretty strong gross. Let's see what kind of legs it has.

[PatrickvD]

1 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $21,707,000
2 The Interpreter - $14,248,000 - $43,567,000
3 XXX: State of the Union $13,700,000
4 The Amityville Horror (2005) $8,100,000 - $55,055,000
5 Sahara $6,000,000 - $57,177,000
6 A Lot Like Love $5,221,000 - $14,698,000
7 Fever Pitch $3,750,000 - $36,535,000

Robots $2,650,000 - $123,680,000

Guess Who $2,200,000 - $65,483,000

Sin City $2,025,000 - $70,619,000

The Pacifier $1,388,000 - $108,413,000

---------------------------

A Lot Like Love had a nice hold. Hitchhiker is a little dissapointing. Pacifier continues to do well. It should cross $110 million at some point.

[Luke]

Seems like BoxOfficeMojo's prediction for Hitchhiker's is very low, if it made ~$17 million through Saturday.

[PatrickvD]

yeah, it is indeed kinda low. But then it barely increased on saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if it did drop hard on sunday.

[Luke]

<i>Hitchhiker's</i> actual gross was $21.1 million. It'll have to have phenomenal holding power to cross $100 million. Don't see it doing that, unfortunately.

<b>By Predicted Gross:</b>

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $234.6 M
Chicken Little $160.5 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.25 M (current gross: $21,103,203, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.4 M
The Shaggy Dog $80.4 M
Sky High $58.2 M
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $108,377,223, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Valiant $48.3 M
Glory Road $42.0 M
Ice Princess $40.1 M (current gross: $23,583,376, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $19.6 M
Howl's Moving Castle $15.5 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $4,848,823, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)

Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)

<b>By Release Date:</b>

Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $4,848,823, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $108,377,223, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (current gross: $23,583,376, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.25 M (current gross: $21,103,203, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)

Howl's Moving Castle $15.5 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.4 M
Sky High $58.2 M
Valiant $48.3 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $19.6 M
Chicken Little $160.5 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $234.6 M

Glory Road $42.0 M
The Shaggy Dog $80.4 M

[TaleAsOldAsTime]

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $70.5 M
Howl's Moving Castle $18.5 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $58.4 M
Sky High $43.2 M
Valiant $71.3 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $25.6 M
Chicken Little $149.5 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $270.6 M
Glory Road $21.0 M
The Shaggy Dog $71.3 M

[Luke]

<i>Hitchhiker's</i> took quite a dive as did most other films. The Studio Estimates from BoxOfficeMojo.com:

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Cost* Week #
1 N Kingdom of Heaven Fox $20,000,000 - 3,216 - $6,218 $20,000,000 $130 / - 1
2 N House of Wax WB $12,205,000 - 3,111 - $3,923 $12,205,000 $40 / - 1
3 1 The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy BV $9,129,000 -56.7% 3,133 - $2,913 $35,119,000 $50 / - 2
4 N Crash Lions $9,100,000 - 1,864 - $4,881 $9,100,000 - / - 1
5 2 The Interpreter Uni. $7,500,000 -45.8% 2,814 +50 $2,665 $54,082,000 $80 / - 3
6 3 XXX: State of the Union SonR $5,400,000 -57.5% 3,480 - $1,551 $20,782,000 - / - 2
7 4 The Amityville Horror (2005) MGM $3,150,000 -59.9% 2,478 -580 $1,271 $60,111,000 $19 / - 4
8 5 Sahara Par. $3,100,000 -45.7% 2,516 -596 $1,232 $61,337,000 $130 / - 5
9 6 A Lot Like Love BV $3,036,000 -40.3% 2,153 -349 $1,410 $18,792,000 $30 / - 3
10 7 Fever Pitch Fox $2,000,000 -43.4% 1,541 -651 $1,297 $39,021,000 $30 / - 5
11 8 Kung Fu Hustle SPC $1,141,000 -65.6% 904 -1,536 $1,262 $14,669,000 $20 / - 5
12 10 Guess Who Sony $1,100,000 -48.9% 1,127 -736 $976 $67,044,000 - / - 7
13 9 Robots Fox $1,000,000 -55.9% 1,306 -476 $765 $124,650,000 $75 / - 9
14 11 Sin City Dim. $858,000 -57.4% 1,002 -663 $856 $72,209,000 $40 / - 6
15 12 The Pacifier BV $636,000 -53.0% 834 -390 $762 $109,267,000 $56 / - 10

[PatrickvD]

Hopefully, the international audience will have a bigger appreciation for it. Too bad it dropped like this

[Luke]

The actual drop was slightly less than estimated (so was <i>Kingdom of Heaven</i>'s disappointing gross). <i>Aliens of the Deep</i> raced past the $5.0 million mark over the weekend. Pals will only be the most accurate on that one for a little while longer, it seems.

I see big things for <i>Kicking and Screaming</i> this upcoming weekend. Anyway, here's the updated standings.

<b>By Predicted Gross:</b>

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $237.6 M
Chicken Little $159.6 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.25 M (current gross: $35,782098 closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $89.6 M
The Shaggy Dog $79.6 M
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $109,447,891, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Sky High $56.9 M
Valiant $50.3 M
Glory Road $39.9 M
Ice Princess $40.1 M (current gross: $23,829,835, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $20.1 M
Howl's Moving Castle $15.8 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $5,020,663, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)

Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)

<b>By Release Date:</b>

Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $5,020,663, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $109,447,891, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (current gross: $23,829,835, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.25 M (current gross: $35,782098 closest - toonstuff, $75 M)

Howl's Moving Castle $15.8 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $89.6 M
Sky High $56.9 M
Valiant $50.3 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $20.1 M
Chicken Little $159.6 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $237.6 M

Glory Road $39.9 M
The Shaggy Dog $79.6 M

[Luke]

<i>Hitchhiker's</i> dropped another 51% according to estimates for a total of $4.7 for the weekend. After 17 days it has now grossed $43.2 million. Don't think it's going to do a great deal more business. I think it might be a good idea to revisit my predictions, which I'll do in a new post.

[Luke]

Updating my predictions.

<b>Herbie: Fully Loaded</b>
Was: $100 M Now: $85 M (going back to my original)

<b>Sky High</b>
Was: $60 M Now: $50 M

Updated summary to follow.