Predict how much the 2005 Disney films will earn

[Luke]

You don't have to if you don't want to. But between Disney's disappointing first seven months of last year, the increase in number of Disney films this year, and the hot 1-2 punch they're riding into the new year with, I think it will be interesting how 2005 turns out for Disney at the box office.

A list of the upcoming films and most that you need to know is right here:
http://www.ultimatedisney.com/intheaters.html

Predict how much Disney's 2005 films will gross in total at the domestic box office.

Come guess with me, let's guess, we'll guess away!

Aliens of the Deep (January 28, IMAX) $11 M
Pooh's Heffalump Movie (February 11) $30 M
The Pacifier (March 4) $30 M
Ice Princess (March 18) $35 M
Howl's Moving Castle (June 10) $8 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded (June 24) $85 M
Sky High (July) $60 M
Valiant (August 19) $40 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played (Sept 30) $10 M
Chicken Little (November 4) $120 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe (December 9) $200 M
Glory Road (Jan 13 2006) $50 M
Roving Mars (Jan 27 2006)
Antarctica (Feb 17 2006)
The Shaggy Dog (March 10 2006) $80 M

And since it was going to be Disney at one point...
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (May 6) $120 M

Release Date Changes Update:
Sky High (July 29)
Valiant (August 19)
The Greatest Game Ever Played (September 30)
Glory Road (January 2006)
The Shaggy Dog (March 2006)

[castleinthesky]

Aliens of the Deep (January 28, IMAX) $9 M
Pooh's Heffalump Movie (February 11) $32 M
The Pacifier (March 4) $55 M
Ice Princess (March 18 ) $25 M
Valiant (April 15) $85 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played (Spring) $9 M
Howl's Moving Castle (June 10) $45 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded (June 24) $85 M
Sky High (July) $35 M
Glory Road (Fall) $28 M
Chicken Little (November 4) $160 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe (December 9) $210 M
The Shaggy Dog (TBA / possibly 2006) $75 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (May 6) $135 M

[pinkrenata]

My guesses will be as follows:

Aliens of the Deep (January 28, IMAX) $7.5 M
Pooh's Heffalump Movie (February 11) $23 M
The Pacifier (March 4) $21 M
Ice Princess (March 18 ) $35 M
Valiant (April 15) $30 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played (Spring) $8 M
Howl's Moving Castle (June 10) $5 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded (June 24) $75 M
Sky High (July) $54 M
Glory Road (Fall) $37.5 M
Chicken Little (November 4) $120 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe (December 9) $210 M
The Shaggy Dog (TBA / possibly 2006) $70 M

[Jack]

Aliens of the Deep - $9 million
Pooh's Heffalump Movie - $27 million
The Pacifier - $77 million
Ice Princess - $41 million
Valiant - $40 million
The Greatest Game Ever Played - $13 million
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - $135 million
Howl's Moving Castle - $5 million
Herbie: Fully Loaded - $90 million
Sky High - $70 million
Glory Road - $51 million
Chicken Little - $170 million
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe - $220 million
The Shaggy Dog - $70 million

As far as I'm concerned, the main wild card is Valiant. It's gross depends largely on the number of theaters Disney opens it in.

[PatrickvD]

Aliens of the Deep $13 M
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $27 M
The Pacifier $75 M
Ice Princess $40 M
Valiant $70 M
HitchHiker's Guide to the Galaxy $185 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $18 M
Howl's Moving Castle $22 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $135 M
Sky High $55 M
Glory Road 45 M
Chicken Little $210 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe (December 9) $235 M
The Shaggy Dog (TBA / possibly 2006) $70 M

I'm usually really bad at predicting. I have predicted Narnia as the highest of the year for Disney. But that could also be Chicken Little. CL is in Pixar's old release date. And since people cannot tell the difference between a Disney classic and a DTV, nobody will be able to tell Disney from Pixar. Chicken Little will be a hit. Overall, I think this year will be better for Disney than 2004.

[MickeyMousePal]

Aliens of the Deep $5 M
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $40 M
The Pacifier $80 M
Ice Princess $65 M
Valiant $20 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $50 M
Howl's Moving Castle $8 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $85 M
Sky High $70 M
Glory Road $50 M
Chicken Little $190 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $275 M
The Shaggy Dog $95 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $130 M

[Luke]

Well in a hope to resurrect this thread and hear more predictions, here are the averages from the six posts made, in descending order.

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $229.2 M
Chicken Little $166.7 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.5 M
The Shaggy Dog $85.8 M
Sky High $57.3 M
The Pacifier $56.3 M
Valiant $47.5 M
Ice Princess $44.3 M
Glory Road $43.6 M
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $29.8 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $18 M
Howl's Moving Castle $15.5 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.1 M

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $133 M

[orestes.]

I love movies and follow the box office but I suck at predicting.... much like the box office critics in 2004 on some movies.

If I guessed I would think Herbie: Fully Loaded would be a hit but I'm honestly not sure. I think their top three will be The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Chicken Little and Herbie.

I may try and muster some guesses in a little bit.

[Lucylover1986]

Here are my predictions:

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $150 M
Chicken Little $125M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $70 M
The Shaggy Dog $60 M
Sky High $50 M
The Pacifier $50 M
Valiant $35 M
Ice Princess $35 M
Glory Road $35 M
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $20 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $15 M
Howl's Moving Castle $7 M
Aliens of the Deep $10 M

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $100 M

[AwallaceUNC]

One of the lost posts:

<hr>

TheLittleMerman
Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2005 3:01 pm

Aliens of the Deep - $9 million
Pooh's Heffalump Movie - $32 million
The Pacifier - $77 million
Ice Princess - $43 million
Valiant - $40 million
The Greatest Game Ever Played - $13 million
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - $135 million
Howl's Moving Castle - $5 million
Herbie: Fully Loaded - $150 million
Sky High - $70 million
Glory Road - $51 million
Chicken Little - $170 million
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe - $220 million
The Shaggy Dog - $70 million

<hr>

[Luke]

I think my prediction for <i>The Pacifier</i> is going to be way low. Not because it looks particularly great, but I think it's got more appeal than I realized.

[toonstuff]

Pooh's Heffalump Movie (February 11) $28 M
The Pacifier (March 4) $55 M
Ice Princess (March 18 ) $20 M
Valiant (April 15) $60M
Howl's Moving Castle (June 10) $30 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded (June 24) $100 M
Chicken Little (November 4) $80 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe (December 9) $250 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (May 6) $75 M

Of course, these predictions are a reflection of what I think the audiences will think, not my actual feelings about each film.

[Lucylover1986]

I think my prediction for <i>The Pacifier</i> is going to be way low. Not because it looks particularly great, but I think it's got more appeal than I realized.

No one I know is going to see The Pacifier. Vin Diesel in a comedy is a big no way. The only positive thing about this movie is that Faith Ford is in it and I love watching her on "Hope & Faith" Friday nights at 9 on ABC! <nice plug>

[orestes.]

I think my prediction for <i>The Pacifier</i> is going to be way low. Not because it looks particularly great, but I think it's got more appeal than I realized.

Well if that was a guess for opening weekend you would have been right on almost.

[wrshrr]

I don't know enough about some of the movies listed to guess them all, I do believe that the Lion, Witch and the Wardrobe will top over $300 million. They are spending some quality time on this film. I think this could be a huge franchise for Disney.

[Luke]

I think my prediction for <i>The Pacifier</i> is going to be way low. Not because it looks particularly great, but I think it's got more appeal than I realized.

Well if that was a guess for opening weekend you would have been right on almost.

At least I correctly forecasted the error of my ways!

[Luke]

Here's how Disney's first three films of 2005 have fared as of 3/13, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com:

The Pacifier $54,477,697
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $17,529,465
Aliens of the Deep $3,347,104

<i>Valiant</i> has been bumped to late August, which will definitely affect its box office performance. On the one hand, there typically aren't so many hits released then. On the other, at least Disney will have more time to promote it, if they ever decide to! If anyone wants to revise their predictions on <i>Valiant</i> or other movies that have been delayed (<i>The Greatest Game Ever Played</i> - September 2005, <i>Glory Road</i> - January 2006, <i>The Shaggy Dog</i> - Spring 2006), do that in a future reply. I think I'll stick with mine, just because it's easier.

I've updated averages and they appear below. Nine members made predictions (though not everyone made predictions for all, and only pre-release predictions were counted).

By Predicted Gross:

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $221.7 M
Chicken Little $152.8 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $121.9 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $97.2 M
The Shaggy Dog $80.6 M
Sky High $58 M
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $54,477,697, closest - castleinthesky, $55 M)
Valiant $46.7 M
Glory Road $43.4 M
Ice Princess $40.4 M
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (current gross: $17,529,465, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $17 M
Howl's Moving Castle $15 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $3,347,104, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $3,347,104, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (current gross: $17,529,465, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $54,477,697, closest - castleinthesky, $55 M)
Ice Princess $40.4 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $121.9 M
Howl's Moving Castle $15 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $97.2 M
Sky High $58 M
Valiant $46.7 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $17 M
Chicken Little $152.8 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $221.7 M

Glory Road $43.4 M
The Shaggy Dog $80.6 M

[PatrickvD]

Pacifier is doing surprisingly well. My $75 million prediction is too low I think, it's gonna have a great weekend since 'Robots' apparently did not affect its Box Office all that much as I thought it would.

Part of me wants to change my prediciton for Valiant since I fnd it impossible to believe Disney isnt going to promote it, but I think I'll stick with my $70 million prediction. For all I know, Disney is gonna keep it low profile to make sure it isn't gonna affect Chicken Little in some way.

[MickeyMousePal]

Any Updates ???

[Luke]

Any Updates ???

What's so funny, Pals? Nothing new to report on <i>Pooh</i> or <i>Aliens</i>, but <i>The Pacifier</i> has grossed another 2 and a half million or so. It will pass the average UD prediction after today's totals come in.