Predict how much the 2005 Disney films will earn

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Luke
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Post by Luke »

Last chance to revise those <i>Ice Princess</i> predictions! If you're so inclined, and I doubt you are, please do so in a reply to this post.
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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Post by Just Myself »

Ice Princess $37.3 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $172.5 M
Howl's Moving Castle $20 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $70.6 M
Sky High $68.2 M
Valiant $36.8 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $25 M
Chicken Little $218.7 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $295.4 M
Glory Road $30.9 M
The Shaggy Dog $74.1 M
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Post by DaeLex »

My guess is too much... :lol:
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Post by Luke »

Friday's Estimates

3) The Pacifier $3,625,000
4) Ice Princess $2,130,000
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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Post by PatrickvD »

I completely overpredicted it... it will never get to $40 million now. :P Hopefully the family films have a huge increase on saturday.
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Post by RJKD23 »

Luke wrote:Friday's Estimates

3) The Pacifier $3,625,000
4) Ice Princess $2,130,000
wow. ice princess did okay for Friday.
i bet if i saw it, it would've increased to $2,130,006. ;)
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Post by Just Myself »

Hmm, looks like I could be right on the money... ;)
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Post by RJKD23 »

Luke's news on the Front Page wrote:Ice Princess performed a bit below expectations at the weekend box office, grossing an estimated $7.0 million since Friday.
can I take that as a bad thing??
who was it that told me to go check out the movie?? I wonder...
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Post by Lucylover1986 »

MickeyMousePal wrote: Ice Princess $650 M
I think you went a little too much! :lol: I think you meant $65 though anyway.
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Post by Luke »

And hey, Pals, you're not supposed to edit your original post.
Last chance to revise those Ice Princess predictions! If you're so inclined, and I doubt you are, please do so in a reply to this post.
:roll:
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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Post by MickeyMousePal »

Luke Wrote:
And hey, Pals, you're not supposed to edit your original post.
I meant to put $65 not $650. Check Lucylover1986 post.
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Post by Luke »

Once again, I'll make it clear. If you're going to revise an original prediction, do so with a new reply. Don't edit the original post.

Using some math, I was able to get your original predictions, Pals. They're what I'm keeping unless you make a new reply changing something.

For instance, in this reply I'm going to make a couple of revisions.

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe - Was $200, Now $270
Herbie: Fully Loaded - Was $85, Now $100
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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Post by MickeyMousePal »

Fix my post Luke sorry about the change from Ice Princess.
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Post by Luke »

As of 3/20 (<i>Heffalump</i> and <i>Aliens of the Deep</i> not yet containing weekend updates.)

I've updated averages and they appear below, from the ten lists of predictions made by members. (Not everyone made predictions for all, and only pre-release predictions were counted).

By Predicted Gross:

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $236 M
Chicken Little $159.4 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $127.5 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $96.1 M
The Shaggy Dog $79.9 M
Sky High $59.1 M
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $72,283,000, closest - PatrickvD, $75 M)
Valiant $45.7 M
Glory Road $42.0 M
Ice Princess $40.1 M (current gross: $7,013,000, closest - toonstuff, $20 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (current gross: $17,675,549, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $17.9 M
Howl's Moving Castle $15.5 M
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $3,460,409, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $3,460,409, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (current gross: $17,675,549, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $72,283,000, closest - PatrickvD, $75 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (current gross: $7,013,000, closest - toonstuff, $20 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $127.5 M
Howl's Moving Castle $15.5 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $96.1 M
Sky High $59.1 M
Valiant $45.7 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $17.9 M
Chicken Little $159.4 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $236 M

Glory Road $42.0 M
The Shaggy Dog $79.9 M
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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Post by PatrickvD »

hey I'm closest on Pacifier! however, with the legs it is showing now it will get well over $100 million. Another hit for Disney. Only goes to prove that in Disney's case it doesn't matter what critics say. If I remember correctly it didnt get that great reviews.
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Post by PatrickvD »

according to Box Office Mojo, these are the friday numbers. Pacifer hardly dropped from last week. Looks like it is heading for another $10 million + weekend. Has Spring Break started over there in the U.S.?? This film is definitely crossing $100 million. Big surprise.

5 THE PACIFIER $3,235,000

6 ICE PRINCESS $1,500,000

not related to this but I wanted to say the 2006 Disney movies page was an interesting read. I didn't know both American Dog and Wilbur Robinson are due out in the same year. The Banshee also sounds interesting. Great update Luke!
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Post by RJKD23 »

PatrickvD wrote:Has Spring Break started over there in the U.S.??
Heck yes! :D (yes it has. :) and maybe I should go watch The Pacifier...)


Luke(sorry to be off-topic, but...)

are you seriousl?!

MIGHTY DUCKS 4
what the heezy.
Freakin Disney. :|
i hope that idea gets shot down! :twisted: (it'll ruin the box set! ;))

and..
Yay for SC3 :)
And yet again..another classic Disney movie being remade (SwissFR) :roll:

Thanks for updating the Theatres page! :up:
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Post by Luke »

PatrickvD wrote:not related to this but I wanted to say the 2006 Disney movies page was an interesting read. I didn't know both American Dog and Wilbur Robinson are due out in the same year. The Banshee also sounds interesting. Great update Luke!
Thanks! Everything I've heard points to <i>Wilbur Robinson</i> being out in November, so perhaps Disney will have a 1-2 punch in 2006 with <i>Santa Clause 3</i> and <i>Wilbur</i> the way they did in 2004 with <i>Incredibles</i> and <i>National Treasure</i> and how it's looking like they will in 2005 with <i>Chicken Little</i> and <i>Narnia</i>. Where does <i>Swiss Family Robinson</i> figure then? The third punch? <i>American Dog</i> may not make it out in time for 2006. It doesn't seem to be as far along as <i>Wilbur</i> and especially if the other CGI films don't perform up to expectations, I could definitely see <i>Dog</i> getting bumped to some time in 2007.

I didn't post every Disney project supposedly in the works for next year and it already looks like they have a full slate. I'm glad they're increasing output, but one might hope for more diversity than simply remakes, sequels, CGI comedies, sports dramas, and teen girl movies. Right there, you've got five different classes, but not everything should be falling into those categories.

I agree with you, <i>The Banshee</i> definitely sounds interesting. <i>Shaggy Dog</i>, <i>Cars</i>, <i>Pirates 2</i>, and <i>Santa 3</i> are the most interesting others for me, from what little we know now. And I guess that kind of thinking is what leads them to do sequels and remakes: a familiar name yields an interest.
RJKD23 wrote:are you seriousl?!

MIGHTY DUCKS 4
what the heezy.
Freakin Disney. :|
i hope that idea gets shot down! :twisted: (it'll ruin the box set! ;))
I must also agree with you to a point. Sure, it doesn't sound very good or original, but at the very least it would provide confirmation that Emilio Estevez is alive and well. And hey, it could mean a Special Edition for the first film.

Regarding Friday's numbers, it's interesting how my $30 million predictions for both <i>Pacifier</i> and <i>Ice Princess</i> appear to be quite off in different directions. <i>The Pacifier</i> is now the second highest-grossing film of 2005. But only for one day, since <i>Robots</i> will almost certainly pass it by tomorrow. Still, it's definitely Disney's first hit of the year and the legs are impressive. <i>Ice Princess</i> probably isn't going to get the $29 million <i>Confessions</i> did, but it's not like it was a huge budget film or too big of a disappointment. Just a minor one on both regards.
"Fifteen years from now, when people are talking about 3-D, they will talk about the business before 'Monsters vs. Aliens' and the business after 'Monsters vs. Aliens.' It's the line in the sand." - Greg Foster, IMAX chairman and president
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Post by RJKD23 »

Luke wrote:I must also agree with you to a point. Sure, it doesn't sound very good or original, but at the very least it would provide confirmation that Emilio Estevez is alive and well. And hey, it could mean a Special Edition for the first film.
Oh yes, info on EE will be appreciated! Whatever happened to him?
Mmmmhhhhmmm, bring back Joshua Jackson. What happened to him too? :?

Well it does sound like a cute idea (sorta)...a children's hockey team! :D
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Post by PatrickvD »

Despite some sequels (Santa Clause 3 actually sounds interesting, especially because Tim Allen is in it again and the second one was fun) and another remake (I wonder if Lindsay Lohan is in Swiss Family Robinson :P ) they definitely have a strong line up. I agree on the Holiday 1-2 punch. It's a smart move to release two big films away from the crowded summer holiday, where most studios release their biggest films of the year.
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