Predict how much the 2005 Disney films will earn

[AwallaceUNC]

I'm revising my prediction for The Greatest Game Ever Played to $30 M.

-Aaron

[Luke]

With only $1.85 M grossed on Friday, <i>Valiant</i> looks like it could be on its way to becoming the lowest-grossing computer animated film in the U.S. which received wide release. The current title-holder is <i>Jonah: A Veggie's Tale</i> which earned $25.6 M domestically in the fall of 2002 (in significantly less theaters, and with lower ticket prices, mind you.)

It will take something of a miracle for <i>Valiant</i> to turn around and be labeled a clear success, but it's important to remember A) the film had a budget of just $40 million so we're not talking <i>Final Fantasy</i>-type flop here and B) it's playing in far less theaters than any other computer-animated film released in America (with the exception of <i>Jonah</i>).

In any event, the film will need very strong word-of-mouth and amazing legs for it to reach the $51 M average predicted gross. Following this, Disney has just three films left to turn a mostly underwhelming year around. I don't expect too much from <i>Greatest Game Ever Played</i>, but <i>Chicken Little</i> and <i>The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe</i> should become the studio's top two grossing films of the year (the other way around, I'd say) and make things a bit more respectable.

By all regards, 2006 looks more promising on the whole, with <i>Pirates</i>, Pixar, and <i>Santa Clause 3</i>.

[Luke]

Updated with last and this weekend's numbers. After ten days, <i>Valiant</i> is still just a small step ahead of <i>Pooh's Heffalump Movie</i> and if it continues to fall as expected, its US gross will wind up in the lower $20 million range at most, less than half the average prediction around here.

By Predicted Gross:
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $246.0 M
Chicken Little $146.9 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (current gross: $64,636,676, closest - Timon/Pumba fan, $62 M)
The Shaggy Dog $73.1 M
Sky High $51.6 M (current gross: $55,402,752, closest - pinkrenata/awallaceunc, $54 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (current gross: $11,703,962, closest - pinkrenata/lord-of-sith, $30 M)
Antarctica $44.6 M
Glory Road $31.8 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $28.8 M
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (current gross: $4,641,887, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $6,974,972, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $8.9 M

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest -castleinthesky, $25 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $6,974,972, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (current gross: $4,641,887, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (current gross: $64,636,676, closest - Timon/Pumba fan, $62 M)
Sky High $51.6 M (current gross: $55,402,752, closest - pinkrenata/awallaceunc, $54 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (current gross: $11,703,962, closest - pinkrenata/lord-of-sith, $30 M)

The Greatest Game Ever Played $28.8 M
Chicken Little $146.9 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $246.0 M

Glory Road $31.8 M
Roving Mars $8.9 M
Antarctica $44.6 M
The Shaggy Dog $73.1 M


Of the five currently playing films, pinkrenata has the lead or is tied on four of them. Impressive prediction skills, and as she was one of the first three to post guesses, she is in possession of tiebreakers on all four of those, naturally.

[Lucylover1986]

I said $25 million for Valiant actually so I believe I should be in the lead. I made the change in my prediction in the middle of page 8.

[Luke]

I said $25 million for Valiant actually so I believe I should be in the lead. I made the change in my prediction in the middle of page 8.

You're right. Not sure how I missed that one, but it will be reflected in the next update. Sorry about that!

[Lucylover1986]

That's ok!

[PatrickvD]

Good to see I'm close with Sky high... Valiant... I completely overpredicted.. I should've known all along Disney was gonna make this one bomb anyway.

[Eatmorchiken]

Well, since I just saw this topic now... I guess I'll predict on two of the movies not released yet.

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $250.2 M
Chicken Little $133.4 M

That's about all I could predict probably. We'll see if I'm even close with these two.

[Timon/Pumbaa fan]

Well I don't like to brag but the it looks like the Herbie prediction is mine!

Well I guess it helped that people(for some reason) thought it would gross more than 100 million!

[Lucylover1986]

Just bumping this thread. You'll probably want to update this Luke Monday since The Greatest Game Ever Played comes out Friday. So Friday should be the last day to submit or change predictions for that.

[Luke]

Just bumping this thread. You'll probably want to update this Luke Monday since The Greatest Game Ever Played comes out Friday. So Friday should be the last day to submit or change predictions for that.

That's right. I've been keeping the numbers updated on my own. Just haven't found the time to post updates to this thread. I'll probably update again after <i>Greatest Game</i>'s opening weekend. Like LL1986 pointed out, Thursday night will be the last chance to update predictions for <i>Greatest Game</i> and you'll want to do that in a new post.

[Hogi Bear]

The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $320 Million

I think the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe is going to be one of these films which people are really going to get excited about seeing.

Chicken Little $150 Million

[lord-of-sith]

Wow, I'm on there for Valiant! Wierd as I over shot by a ton.

[PatrickvD]

The Greatest Game Ever Played $27M
It's only opening in 1,000 theaters and I don't see it becoming a break out hit. Disney has had none this year anyway. Except perhaps The Pacifier.

[yankees]

The Greatest Game Ever Played: Well September Is Usally a slow time for movies because all the movies that come out then arent usually gooad and ppl are gettin back to school.... Unlike Miracle, Rokkie Or Remember the Titans... they all had a big clebrity and it was also a interssting sport/story....... The Greatest Game Ever Played is only really gonna interest golf fans and thats really it... Plus with Just Like Heaven, Coprse Bride and wallace and Gromit Out There are more movies that look better.

Gross: 16million

Chicken Little: This is coming out the week of november 4th... that is usally a good time w/ disney and they have been releasing big films since Monster Inc at that time. Chicken Littles Main Problem Is that its getting release around the time of two big movies. On Oct 28 we have the PG rated Legend Of Zorro satrring anto io banderias and Catherine Zeta Jones... that film will probblay make just around as much as FOX Mr and Mrs Smith... So more likely people will be interested in seeing Zorro than this.... but Chicken Little Should have a nice openng weekend around 20 to 30million in probblay 1st or 2nd.... Then Nov 18th Comes Harry Potter and The Goblet Of Fire.... That is the book that really started the Potter cRaze and with its PG13 rating it should help it make it te 2nd bigggeset film of the Year. So Chicken Little Problem is that its stuck between 2 big films... BUT since the audince for each movie is different it should have no problem as doing as well as Robots.

Total Gross: 125million

The Chronicles Of Narnia:
Beside Harry Potter this is probblay the 2nd biggest chridens book franchise ever. This movie is going to do just about as well as Harry Potter and Prisoner Of Azkaban.... They released it at a good time because ten Potter would be out for about 4weeks so it would probblay make around 10million over the weekend.... This movie should appeal to many people like Potter.

Total Gross: 220million

[Luke]

If there's a theme to all of this year's Disney movies, it's that they are underperforming our predictions. <i>The Greatest Game Ever Played</i> opened with just $3.66 million its first three days, which will require amazing legs for it to approach the $27.9 M average prediction. <i>Howl's Moving Castle</i> is nearing the single-digit theater mark, and it has yet to hobble to the $5 million mark. <i>Valiant</i> is Disney's top-grossing animated release of the year, and it's just passed the $19 M mark as it winds down its short and unremarkable run. Only two films have exceded UD members' average predictions (the unexplainable hit <i>The Pacifier</i> and solid performer <i>Sky High</i>). There are only two new films left to open this year (they're widely expected to be the studio's highest-grossing ones), and as promised, the member with the most accurate predictions will win the DVD of their choice (let me specify now, if I haven't already, SRP $32.99 or lower). There are close races for <i>Herbie</i> and <i>Sky High</i>, but most of the other films playing through now won't be changing leaders anytime soon.

By Predicted Gross:
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $249.0 M
Chicken Little $145.1 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (current gross: $65,942,664, closest - Timon/Pumba fan, $62 M)
The Shaggy Dog $73.1 M
Sky High $51.6 M (current gross: $62,622,581, closest - Mushu, $60.6 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (current gross: $19,116,852, closest - Lucylover1986, $25 M)
Antarctica $44.6 M
Glory Road $32.5 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $27.9 M (current gross: $3,657,322, closest - pinkrenata, $8 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (current gross: $4,710,455, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,269,633, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $8.9 M

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest -castleinthesky, $25 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,269,633, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (current gross: $4,710,455, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (current gross: $65,942,664, closest - Timon/Pumba fan, $62 M)
Sky High $51.6 M (current gross: $62,622,581, closest - Mushu, $60.6 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (current gross: $19,116,852, closest - Lucylover1986, $25 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $27.9 M (current gross: $3,657,322, closest - pinkrenata, $8 M)


Chicken Little $145.1 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $249.0 M

Glory Road $32.5 M
Roving Mars $8.9 M
Antarctica $44.6 M
The Shaggy Dog $73.1 M

[castleinthesky]

There are only two new films left to open this year (they're widely expected to be the studio's highest-grossing ones), and as promised, the member with the most accurate predictions will win the DVD of their choice (let me specify now, if I haven't already, SRP $32.99 or lower).

Well if i woulda known that I would of edited my picks before the movies came out, and put my box office mojo derby experience to good use.

[Mushu]

Wow! I actually came close to Sky High! It's to bad that in a few days I'll loose first place!

[Luke]

According to BoxOfficeMojo.com, <i>Howl's Moving Castle</i>'s North American box office run is more or less done, (they've stopped tracking it), which makes it the third film we've been watching this year to fall below all predictions. It did get close to $5 M, which is what pinkrenata predicted (as well as Jack and TheLittleMerman, subsequently), but still can be labeled a "disappointment", I'd think. The weekend's totals have caused a leader change for <i>Herbie: Fully Loaded</i> and <i>Sky High</i> as well. Both of those are winding down their runs, as is the underperforming <i>Valiant</i>, which has waddled past $19 M.

By Predicted Gross:
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $249.1 M
Chicken Little $144.6 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (current gross: $65,942,664, closest - Lucylover1986, $70 M)
The Shaggy Dog $73.1 M
Sky High $51.6 M (current gross: $62,935,722, closest - PatrickvD, $65 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (current gross: $19,229,436, closest - Lucylover1986, $25 M)
Antarctica: The Journey Home $44.6 M
Glory Road $34.1 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $26.9 M (current gross: $9,798,113, closest - castleinthesky, $9 M)
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,304,876, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $8.9 M

Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (final gross: $4,711,096, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest -castleinthesky, $25 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,269,633, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (final gross: $4,711,096, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (current gross: $66,002,004, closest - Lucylover1986, $70 M)
Sky High $51.6 M (current gross: $62,935,722, closest - Mushu, $60.6 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (current gross: $19,116,852, closest - Lucylover1986, $25 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $26.9 M (current gross: $9,789,113, closest - castleinthesky, $9 M)

Chicken Little $144.6 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $249.1 M

Glory Road $34.1 M
Roving Mars $8.9 M
Antarctica: The Journey Home $44.6 M
The Shaggy Dog $73.1 M

[Luke]

I am revising my predictions on <b><i>Eight Below</b></i> (previously known as <i>Antarctica</i>) to $35 M and <b><i>Glory Road</b></i> to $60 M.

Updated with the weekend's actual numbers.

Wrapping up these two...

<font color="#E72029"><b>Herbie: Fully Loaded</b></font>
Opened June 22, 2005. Closed October 2005.

Final Gross: $66,023,816
Average Prediction: $92,666,667
Closest Prediction: $70,000,000 by Lucylover1986 (93.98% accurate)

Rest of predictions:
2) Timon/Pumba fan - $62 M (93.91% accurate)
3) Just Myself - $70.6 M (93.1% accurate)
4) TaleAsOldAsTime - $58.4 M (88.5% accurate)
5) pinkrenata - $75 M (86.4% accurate)
6) yankees - $56 M (84.8% accurate)
7) AwallaceUNC - $77 M (83.4% accurate)
8) Mushu, Raydawggie - $80 M (78.8% accurate)
10) castleinthesky, lord-of-sith - $85 M (71.3% accurate)
12) Wonderlicious - $88 M (66.7% accurate)
13) Jack - $90 M (63.7% accurate)
14) Luke - $95 M (56.1% accurate)
15) cydney - $98 M (51.6% accurate)
16) RJKD23, toonstuff - $100 M (48.5% accurate)
18) MickeyMousePal - $105 M (41% accurate)
19) ichabod - $110 M (33.4% accurate)
20) PatrickvD - $118 M (21.3% accurate)
21) 2099net - $121 M (16.7% accurate)
22) Prince Eric, SofaKing38122 - $125 M (10.7% accurate)
24) TheLittleMerman - $150 M (0% accurate)

<font color="#7BE78C"><b>Howl's Moving Castle</b></font>
Opened June 10, 2005. Closed October 2005.

Final Gross: $4,711,096
Average Prediction: $17,264,286
Closest Prediction: $5,000,000 by pinkrenata (93.8% accurate) (also predicted by Jack and TheLittleMerman)

Rest of predictions:
4) MickeyMousePal - $8 M (30.2% accurate)
5) Luke - $8.5 M (19.6% accurate)
6) Lucylover1986 - $15 M (0% accurate)
7) 2099net, Timon/Pumba fan - $18 M (0% accurate)
9) TaleAsOldAsTime - $18.5 M (0% accurate)
10) Just Myself - $20 M (0% accurate)
11) PatrickvD - $22 M (0% accurate)
12) Mushu - $23.7 M (0% accurate)
13) toonstuff - $30 M (0% accurate)
14) castleinthesky - $45 M (0% accurate)

<hr>

By Predicted Gross:
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $249.1 M
Chicken Little $144.6 M
The Shaggy Dog $73.1 M
Sky High $51.6 M (current gross: $63,234,522, closest - PatrickvD, $65 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (current gross: $19,262,309, closest - Lucylover1986, $25 M)
Eight Below $43.6 M
Glory Road $34.4 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $26.9 M (current gross: $12,341,200, closest - Jack/TheLittleMerman, $13 M)
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,348,084, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Roving Mars $8.9 M

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (final gross: $66,023,816, closest - Lucylover1986, $70 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest -castleinthesky, $25 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (final gross: $4,711,096, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $7,269,633, closest - pinkrenata, $7.5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (final gross: $113,086,868, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (final gross: $51,085,416, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (final gross: $4,711,096, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (final gross: $66,023,816, closest - Lucylover1986, $70 M)
Sky High $51.6 M (current gross: $63,234,522, closest - PatrickvD, $65 M)
Valiant $51.0 M (current gross: $19,262,309, closest - Lucylover1986, $25 M)
The Greatest Game Ever Played $26.9 M (current gross: $12,341,200, closest - Jack/TheLittleMerman, $13 M)

Chicken Little $144.6 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $249.1 M

Glory Road $34.4 M
Roving Mars $8.9 M
Eight Below $43.6 M
The Shaggy Dog $73.1 M