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Best Documentary Feature
Three documentaries about race, one about the power of movies, and one about refugees and hunting birds and stuff. Though it runs 7 hours and 47 minutes, making it longer than any previous Oscar winner, O.J.: Made in America is more absorbing and less flawed than any of the competition, which should make it the winner, even if it's more of an ESPN miniseries than a feature film. But judged as the latter, it's up there with the year's best narrative features.
Best Live Action Short
I've seen none of these, so don't give my prediction any weight whatsoever. I'm basically picking it because others are and it sounds like a winner.
Best Supporting Actor
This is the biggest surprise of the night I'm predicting. Mahershala Ali has won more precursors than any of the others, but he hasn't felt in full control of this category the way past supporting actor winners like J.K. Simmons have. Patel did win the BAFTA, where as a Brit he had an advantage. I feel he gets the edge here because I think the Academy likes Lion too much to let it go home empty-handed. There's also the goodwill Patel still has from his not nominated lead performance in the otherwise heavily decorated Slumdog Millionaire. Ali has been around for a while, but he hasn't done enough where this is a career-acknowledging lock. And frankly, though the outrage of #OscarsSoWhite is mostly about African-Americans, an actor of Indian descent winning is nearly unprecedented and would be far more significant in terms of cultural representations. But either way, they can't go wrong. (And if Bridges hadn't already won an Oscar seven years back, this would be all his.)
Best Sound Editing
The casual Oscar pool filler-outer will proceed to guess La La Land for everything it's nominated. Don't do it here. That it even got nominated is somewhat of a surprise. No live-action musical previously ever had been. If it does win this honor early in the night, then a La La Land sweep remains a real possibility. But this category tends to reward action effects, like those of American Sniper and The Hurt Locker. Hacksaw Ridge, unlikely to win anything else Sunday night, seems to fit the profile perfectly.
Best Sound Mixing
This similarly named but subtly different category is the one that typically recognizes musicals and films with music. Past winners include Dreamgirls, Les Misérables, and Chazelle's Whiplash. You can bet La La Land is winning this, unless the frontrunner backlash is real.
Best Visual Effects
This category held one of last year's biggest surprises when little Ex Machina defeated Star Wars: The Force Awakens to win one more Oscar than the box office behemoth. It seems like The Jungle Book's extensive use of effects -- building a universe full of talking, photorealistic animals -- and warm reception ought to earn it this Oscar, which would be one more than Disney's 1967 animated musical won.
Best Original Score
Thomas Newman is overdue for a first win, but he's not getting it for Passengers. Nope, this one seems clearly headed for Justin Hurwitz, who gave La La Land some compelling instrumental themes to complement its handful of original songs.
Best Original Song
Is there a chance that La La Land's dual nominees cannibalize one another, allowing Lin-Manuel Miranda's Moana song to win? Sure, but I don't see it happening on a night full of La La love.
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