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Best Actor - Drama
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

Next in line: Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes; Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems; Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell

Adam Sandler really should show up here. The Globes have twice as many Best Actor nominations to give as others and Sandler is quickly becoming this year's critics' offbeat favorite (think Ethan Hawke in First Reformed last year), but Uncut Gems was reclassified as a Drama, so Sandler very well might not be back to the Globes seventeen years after they nominated him for Punch-Drunk Love.

As for the rest of the field, Joaquin Phoenix and Adam Driver are locks. If pundits are to be believed, Robert De Niro doesn't seem to have the stronghold on an Oscar nomination you'd think he would for carrying the presumed Best Picture frontrunner, but with DiCaprio relegated to Comedy or Musical, there's no way he misses here.

That leaves two slots. One goes to Antonio Banderas, a four-time Globes nominee who hasn't been a part of the film side of the awards in over twenty years, for playing Pedro Almodóvar's surrogate in Pain and Glory. The other goes to Christian Bale, who won the Comedy/Musical equivalent last year for Vice and is by far the best thing about the on-the-bubble Ford v Ferrari. If I'd seen The Two Popes, there's a great chance I might be higher on Jonathan Pryce's chances, but going by what I've seen, the category seems okay without him.

Best Actress - Drama
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o, Us

Next in line: Cynthia Erivo, Harriet; Alfre Woodard, Clemency; Helen Mirren, The Good Liar; Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell

It's too soon to call it, but Renée Zellweger seems capable of sweeping the season with her great turn as Judy Garland and the comeback narrative that comes with it. Let's hope she times her bathroom breaks better than she did the year that she kept Hugh Grant waiting at the podium (see below clip).

Charlize Theron and Saoirse Ronan are Globes fixtures who are I'm guessing too good in movies that are too good to ignore (I can vouch for Bombshell at least). If the Hollywood Foreign Press loves Marriage Story as much as most who see it, then there's no way both of the two leads don't crack this field (you could make an argument for that very funny film being a Comedy, if only to enliven that yawn of a field), which means Scarlett Johansson will be a nominee for the first time since Isaac Mizrahi groped her in the red dress above.

That leaves us with exactly one slot up for grabs, which realistically you have to see going to a woman of color to avoid dated optics and tiresome yet valid "Globes So White" thinkpieces on representation. Harriet is unfortunately a pretty bad movie, but I think Cynthia Erivo still has a decent shot at making it in for this Harriet Tubman biopic. Otherwise, Lupita Nyong'o will be back six years after her supporting turn in 12 Years a Slave lost the Globe to Jennifer Lawrence but won the Oscar. Us is a good movie, but it's a horror movie that opened all the way back in March. I know those were similar marks against writer-director Jordan Peele's debut Get Out, which opened even earlier, in February. But that was an anomaly and I'm not sure Us has anywhere near as much passion, despite its nearly identical box office numbers. Woodard is someone I think everyone knows and admires and she hasn't been nominated for a film Globe since 1992, but Clemency remains largely unseen almost a year since premiering at Sundance.

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Shia LaBeouf, The Peanut Butter Falcon

Next in line: Himesh Patel, Yesterday; Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit; Will Smith, Aladdin

The top four here should all have statements prepared for their publicists by now. They are just about guaranteed to make the cut. And there's really only four other actors believably in play for that final slot. The Peanut Butter Falcon does not feel like any more of an awards contender than the comparable and better Mud was six years ago, but Shia LaBeouf seems to have some real goodwill surrounding him this year for his 1-2 punch of a comeback. Patel or Smith would provide some additional diversity, but Murphy, another comeback story, seems likely to win this award for his Netflix passion project (this year's The Disaster Artist).

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Constance Wu, Hustlers
Francesca Hayward, Cats

Next in line: Emma Thompson, Late Night; Cate Blanchett, Where'd You Go, Bernadette; Kaitlyn Dever, Booksmart; Jillian Bell, Brittany Runs a Marathon

Like its male equivalent, this category is awfully easy to predict through four nominees. It's an extremely shallow field, but one which will inevitably make for the most diverse category of the year. Not many are predicting Hayward, a dancer from London's Royal Ballet picking up her first film credit. But that's the biggest and only surprise I can imagine here, since the alternatives are doubling down on Booksmart (which I don't see being to HFPA's tastes) or legacy nominating Thompson or Blanchett for fair to worse comedies that completely bombed in theaters. I mean this is an organization that has swooned to big name nominees before, but it's been almost a decade since the year that Johnny Depp was a risible double nominee for The Tourist and Alice in Wonderland.

Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

Next in line: Joe Pesci, The Irishman; John Lithgow, Bombshell; Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy; Alan Alda, Marriage Story; Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit; Sterling K. Brown, Waves

Pitt and Pacino are legends being legends in their respective legendary films. Surprisingly, Pitt hasn't been a Globes nominee since Moneyball eight years ago, while Pacino was most recently nominated for 2015's soon-forgotten Danny Collins. I imagine the two of them are vying for the win. Hanks is clearly on the same legendary level as those two, although neither his film nor his performance is as good as theirs. Still, I think he has a legitimate shot at winning this award based largely on how much everyone still seems to love Mr. Rogers. While it's been nearly twenty years since he was last nominated for an Oscar (for Cast Away), Hanks has picked up three Globes nominations since then, so there's no overdue narrative here. Plus he's going to win the Cecil B. deMille Award this year anyway.

The last two slots are harder to predict. By most accounts, Jonathan Pryce is the standout of Two Popes, but Hopkins has a less cutthroat field here to deal with, which is why I'm predicting he gets in. The Lighthouse does not feel like a Globes movie, but Dafoe is so good in it, how could they snub him here? Still, that's a prediction I'm making more with my heart than my head. They did give Frances Ha a nomination though, so black and white arthouse fare isn't necessarily DOA.

If one of the above alternates bumps either Hopkins or Dafoe, it'd reveal that the voters liked the movie a lot. Honey Boy feels off-brand for the Globes, but it's a logical place for LaBeouf to be recognized should the buzz around him be legitimate. Pesci and Alda are both great, but I don't think either has enough screentime to break in here. From the same generation, Lithgow does have the screentime and the performance, so if they like Bombshell and don't feel skeevy about nominating someone playing a disgusting predator, I could see it happening. Taika Waititi has a similar burden in portraying another historical figure with some pretty substantial character flaws, but that might be the most logical acting nominee from what some are anticipating to win Best Picture of the Musical/Comedy ghetto.

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

Next in line: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey; Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit; Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

Pundits are starting to declare Laura Dern the frontrunner and in recent years, one actress does seem to dominate this category all season; even last year, Regina King won both the Oscar and Globe, though it seemed both were up for grabs. Dern is giving off Patricia Arquette in Boyhood vibes; an actress around fifty who has been around a while and puts in great but not particularly showy work in a film that is widely admired. If they want showier, there's Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers, who shows off a good amount of her oft-celebrated posterior as a stripper in Hustlers, which is better than you'd expect a 2019 J-Lo movie to be. I could easily see Lopez winning here but the Oscars going for Dern, who is on the AMPAS board of trustees and declined a nomination to become Academy President.

Joining the two in the certain nominee class is Margot Robbie, whose dynamite screen presence is used less sparingly in Bombshell than it was in Tarantino's Once Upon a Time.

The other two nominees I'm predicting sight unseen. The UK's Florence Pugh seems like something of a breakout star, between Little Women and the much-too-out-there-for-awards Midsommar. And Kathy Bates seems to have a substantial role in Clint Eastwood's swiftly completed eleventh hour nominee that's already done fairly well with precursors.

Johansson is already a near-lock for Marriage Story, so I don't think there will be too much imperative to make her a double nominee (and unlike the Oscars, she's been nominated for four Globes, though none since 2005). Who knows how many more opportunities there will be to recognize the revered Maggie Smith, although the Globes did nominate her just four years ago for the middling Lady in the Van. If the Globes are itching to recognize an older woman, they might go for Zhao Shuzhen, a lifelong 76-year-old Chinese actress making her film debut as Awkwafina's adorable grandmother in The Farewell, which will already be getting one fewer nomination than it should be by being disqualified for Best Picture here.

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