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Year-In-Advance Oscar Predictions
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2004 7:41 pm
by Prince Eric
Well, this year's race is over, and a well-deserving Finding Nemo walked away with this year's Best Animated Feature Film Oscar. Personally, I think this is one of the easiest categories to predict. So, I decided to increase the difficulty up a notch, by having year-in-advanced predictions. This year, I was 2/3 missing The Triplets of Belleville for Sinbad Legend of the Seven Seas.
That stuff is bound to happen when so many obscure/foreign films end up making the shortlist and end up competing. I know some people already mentioned their year-in-advanced predictions in other threads, but I thought I'd make this thread so everyone can see it and post. My official year-in-advance predictions are:
Home on the Range
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
A Shark's Tale
Shrek 2
P.S. No cheating by posting alternates! Also, someone remember to pull this thread up in a year!
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2004 8:16 pm
by windupgamecat
Since there seems to be three films nominated each year, I'm going to go for:
- The Incredibles
- Howl's Moving Castle
- Shrek 2
Shrek won't stand a chance, and the award will be a toss-up between Pixar and Ghibli for who wins.
G.
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2004 8:45 pm
by Mr. Toad
Gibli will take it - Howl's.
Also, I am not sure the Triplets of Bellville was that obscure.
Man you think Disney has hit hard times for annimation - Dreamworks has been stinking up the joint since Shrek. And for that matter it pretty much did before Shrek as well.
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2004 8:49 pm
by Prince Eric
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2004 8:50 pm
by indianajdp
I'm telling you right now, The Polar Express is gonna be one amazing film. I am more excited about that one than I am about The Incredibles.
Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2004 9:07 pm
by Squirrel
I didn't think Howl's Moving Castle was getting a US release 'til 2005. Which it needs to get (a US release, I mean) to qualify. I may be wrong. It would be nice if Home on the Range won, but...yeah, I do think The Polar Express will be pretty big. I think it will win.
Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 2:07 am
by Paka
I dunno, you two - I'm still on the fence about
The Polar Express. That teaser trailer didn't do much for me; it may be 'cause they have yet to finalize the look of the film, but what I've seen thus far is just...
odd. Roger Ebert actually mentioned this "Uncanny Valley" effect in a recent article -
click here to read it. Here's an excerpt...
Roger Ebert wrote:Serkis not only voiced Gollum, but did the physical acting that became the basis for the animated creature -- who was certainly one of the most fascinating and convincing characters in the movie. But animation and robot theorists talk about a strange phenomenon that happens when artificial characters begin to seem "too real." This is the Uncanny Valley Effect, named in 1978 by the Japanese robot scientist Masahiro Mori.
According to a New Yorker article by John Seabrook, "Mori tested people's emotional responses to a wide variety of robots, from non-humanoid to completely humanoid. He found that the human tendency to empathize with machines increases as the robot becomes more human. But at a certain point, when the robot becomes too human, the emotional sympathy abruptly ceases, and revulsion takes its place. People began to notice not the charmingly human characteristics of the robot but the creepy zombielike differences." A definition on the Word Spy Web site gives more examples.
It is possible that the rejection of the sci-fi movie "Final Fantasy," which used computer animation to create "real characters," was caused because it fell into the Uncanny Valley. The genius of Gollum is that it seems like a convincingly real creature -- but not one we have ever seen before, so that its realism does not seem creepy except in the ordinary way. If Serkis brought Gollum to life, other artists fine-tuned the balance with the Uncanny Valley. So this is something other than a conventional performance, and should not compete against characters of a different nature. Perhaps a new category is called for? Beyond the Oscar of the Uncanniest Valley?
The kid and the conductor didn't really evoke that much reaction or emotion from me. I think it may be because of this "Uncanny Valley" effect. They
look quite real, yet move quite stiffly. The film was mostly mo-capped, so it's no wonder, really.
Besides, I thought they were utilizing CG animation because they wanted to capture the hazy "look" of the original book? Last time I read
The Polar Express, it didn't have uber-realistic humans in it. O_o
I'm also wondering how they can turn a 32-page book with an
excruciatingly simple plot into a 90+ minute film. I mean, the complete outline - a kid takes Polar Express to North Pole, is asked by Santa what he wants for a gift, kid asks for a sleighbell, returns home, discovers his parents can't hear the bell like he and his sister can. Oh, the magic of Christmas! The end. e_e
So I'm not exactly holding my breath for this one. Hope this doesn't turn out to be another
Cat in the Hat...
By the by,
Howl's Moving Castle is coming out in Japan in July. If the U.S. distributors work
real fast on it, it could be out by the end of the year, but it's probably more likely to be released next year.
Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 4:29 am
by PatrickvD
- The Incredibles
- Shrek 2
- Home On The Range
And unless Home On the Range flops, I think it will win. Probaply because it is the last real Disney cartoon. Shrek II wont win. I think it will have a huge opening weekend and then it will drop big time the second week. Incredibles will have a big chance as well. Im not sure about the Polar Express... when I saw the preview I wondered why they simply didnt do it as a live action film. The animation looks a little scary.
Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 11:45 am
by AwallaceUNC
I haven't seen trailers for The Polar Express, but I think they can make a very good movie out of it. Sure, they'll have to extrapolate, but it worked well with the Grinch. Any trip to the North Pole can be made into an adventure. That being said, I have a hard time imagining this as an animated film, to me, it screams live action.
-Aaron
Re: Year-In-Advance Oscar Predictions
Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 8:59 pm
by starlioness
[quote="Prince Eric"]Well, this year's race is over, and a well-deserving Finding Nemo walked away with this year's Best Animated Feature Film Oscar. Personally, I think this is one of the easiest categories to predict. So, I decided to increase the difficulty up a notch, by having year-in-advanced predictions. This year, I was 2/3 missing The Triplets of Belleville for Sinbad Legend of the Seven Seas.
That stuff is bound to happen when so many obscure/foreign films end up making the shortlist and end up competing. I know some people already mentioned their year-in-advanced predictions in other threads, but I thought I'd make this thread so everyone can see it and post. My official year-in-advance predictions are:
Home on the Range
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
A Shark's Tale
Shrek 2
Aww! you tooke my votes!
but Sharktale looks scary. not sure how that'll do. and wasn't there supposed to be a sequel to Ghost in the shell?
Re: Year-In-Advance Oscar Predictions
Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2004 11:02 pm
by Disney Guru
Prince Eric wrote:Well, this year's race is over, and a well-deserving Finding Nemo walked away with this year's Best Animated Feature Film Oscar. Personally, I think this is one of the easiest categories to predict. So, I decided to increase the difficulty up a notch, by having year-in-advanced predictions. This year, I was 2/3 missing The Triplets of Belleville for Sinbad Legend of the Seven Seas.
That stuff is bound to happen when so many obscure/foreign films end up making the shortlist and end up competing. I know some people already mentioned their year-in-advanced predictions in other threads, but I thought I'd make this thread so everyone can see it and post. My official year-in-advance predictions are:
Home on the Range
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
A Shark's Tale
Shrek 2
P.S. No cheating by posting alternates! Also, someone remember to pull this thread up in a year!
My Choices Exactly!
