I'd be surprised if any of them manages to get nominated. Eternal Spring and Aurora's Sunrise have the highest chance, but even they aren't buzzy and popular enough to secure a slot like Flee was last year. Best case scenario, they make it to the shortlist.
I agree that it seems like a double standard. The Academy should be consistent when it comes to the implementation of their rules. However, I don't consider rotoscoping and motion capture animation and I'm against them competing with key-frame animated films. Perhaps they can create a different category to accommodate those films.D82 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 6:48 pmIt's curious it was disqualified when past films made with the same technique have been deemed eligible and have even been nominated, as estefan pointed out.
It's certainly beloved by critics and while they are influential, they aren't Academy voters. Even if it's deemed eligible, the fact that it's a hybrid, diminishes its chance of getting nominated. While nominations are now open to all members, it's usually just the animation branch's members who care enough to participate at the nomination stage. Members working at the big animation studios nominate their and their friends' mainstream CG films while foreign and independent filmmakers who are members go for the more hand-crafted stop-motion and hand-drawn animated films. While Marcel features stop-motion, fans of the medium are more likely to rally behind the fully-animated Pinocchio and Wendell & Wild rather than Marcel.D82 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 6:48 pmThat one, though, seemed like a strong contender. If it's finally disqualified as well, that'll increase the chances of other films. I haven't seen it yet, but judging by the trailer, it has a lot of live-action footage, so it would probably be fair it was deemed ineligible.
Well, they can't limit the number of entries this way as the fee only applies to the digital screener. Films can still be submitted for consideration in this category for free. Of course, not having a screener available for voters is a major disadvantage. I think this is just a way for the Academy to get more money from big studios who are more willing to pay the fee to give their films the best chance possible than smaller studios. If they applied this fee to other categories which tend to skew more indie, they'd be accused of not supporting independent cinema.
It's a good strategy given the Best Picture category receives the most attention.D82 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 6:48 pmAlthough, perhaps being in the Best Picture category on the Academy Screening Room increases the films' chances of being watched by members and therefore get nominated in other categories? I heard Marry Me, for example, has odds in Best Song and I guess Universal hopes The Bad Guys could get a Best Animated Feature nomination.
Pinocchio winning this year is pretty much a done deal. Here's my prediction for the nominees, ranked from most to least likely to win:D82 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 6:48 pmBy the way, Wendell & Wild has gotten a full trailer, while Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio premiered at the London Film Festival and, as expected, its first reviews are very positive.
01. Pinocchio
02. Turning Red
03. Wendell & Wild
04. Strange World
5a. My Father's Dragon
5b. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
5c. Inu-Oh