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The Lion King 1 1/2 -- Will it dethrone Simba's Pride?

Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2004 1:48 pm
by Jake Lipson
As we all know, The Lion King deservedly holds many places in the record books. Among them, #1 traditionally animated feature of all time; #1 selling VHS tape of all time; and several others that I'm too lazy to look up. Anyway, what you may or may not know is that <b>Simba's Pride</b> is the top-selling direct-to-vidoe title ever, as well. (I *think* that, at the time, more money was paid for copies of it then for the boxoffice of any other Disney animated film except the original Lion King, but I'm not sure, and that's not the point.)

Quesiton: Do you think The Lion King 1 1/2 will dethrone Simba's Pride and become the top selling direct-to-video release ever?

Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2004 2:29 pm
by Satoshi
Nope. There's not as much Lion King hype these days as there was back when Simba's Pride was released. Plus, Simba's Pride was one of the first DTVs therefore back then more people were excited about the DTVs than I think people today are.

The only DTV that I could think of that may have had a chance to beat the record was Lilo & Stitch II (with the proper advertising) but now that that's been confirmed as a theatrical release I really can't think of anything that stands out as having a good chance to break the record.

Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2004 2:32 pm
by Jake Lipson
I think that, yes, it will.

As I've mentioned in previous threads (and I won't bother going into as much detail about this perticular aspect here) TLK1.5 has the best buzz ever for a direct-to-video sequel, which has won over people (myself included) who normally avoid direct-to-video sequels like the plague. Plus, the quality and popularity of Simba's Pride won't hurt either. People know that the previous Lion King sequel was well done and will expect simmilar results from TLK1.5, and buy it hoping for this quality. (Which I think we will recieve, by-the-way.) This is part of why I think the huge majority of the Lion King fanbase will be snapping up copies come February 10. And everyone who usually buys the direct-to-video stuff (and there are a lot of them out there) will of course jump back on the bandwagon. plus, the soccer moms will be begged by the kids who see the laugh-inducing cover, and will gladly buy what they'll probably consider another auto-babysitter. (Put movie on, press play, and vailoa! Instant babysitter.)

When Simba's Pride came out, it was four years after the original, and everyone was crying out for a sequel. Now, the DVD of the original has come out recently, and this could either have a posotive or negative effect on it. The feeling could be "Oh, hey, I just bought The Lion King and now there's a new movie out that looks pretty cool, I'll get it too and have the set" (which is what Disney is going for, obviously.) Or it's possible Average Joe will think, "I just bought The Lion King and now a sequel is coming out, why do I need to get it? Been there, done that." (The fact that TLK1.5 shares the same plotline as the original from a different point-of-view could also be support for the later sentiment, since some people willl say, "I've already seen this story, I want to see something new." The same thing happened with Universal's Peter Pan adaptation over last Christmas. The general reaction was "I already know this story, I want to see something new like Cheaper by the Dozen.") But for the most part I think it will be the former effect.

The other problem that they might face is that when Simba's Pride came out, the kids who helped make The Lion King the sensation it was in 1994 were still kids, a little older, but still hooked on the franchise. Now, these kids (myself included) are in middle school or high school, and while I still have the enthusiasm for TLK that I did then, others don't. I've talked up TLK1.5 at school on occasion, and I have one friend who seems mildly interested, but not <i>excited</i>, and others just shrug it off completely. My online friends are a bit more receptive to it, but the only ones who I sense are REALLY excited for it are the ones who visit this board, which is no suprise since we're the Disney geeks. Anyway, there's the vibe that "We're teenagers, we're too cool for an animated movie" (which seems to be non-exsistant for CGI stuff, for some reason, but that's another topic.) So, this could possibly hurt the sales. But I'd hope that some of these people will remember their previous fondness for the franchise and give the new movie a rent, at least (or a buy.) On the flip side, their younger brothers and sisters won't have outgrown it yet, but as they probably weren't around for the original mainia, they may not be as warm or receptive of a new Lion King movie as they would be to, say, next year's Lilo & Stitch II.

But overall I think there are more plusses than minuses and it will eventually topple Simba's Pride, with most but not all of its sales occuring this spring. (Then again, Simba's Pride could take back the throne when it's reissued in August; but while it'll definately be aa huge seller I doubt it, since for it there will be the fraction of buyers who say "I already have it on VHS or DVD and I don't think it's worth the repurchase." DVD people will say this less because of the anamorphic retransfer, but still.)

So, I think it will but it could really go either way. I wouldn't be suprised if it did, although it will have some obstacles to overcome. Regardless of if it enters the record books next to TLK, it will be a huge seller, easily topping the sales charts first week and enjoying strong legs throughout the year, what with the continued success of the original movie's DVD, the Simba's Pride reissue, and the 10th anniversary of the original movie this year. It's hard to imagine Disney being disappointed with the sales numbers this title will bring in.

Anyway...that was long enough, huh? It should tie my reply in my own thread asking who here will be getting TLK1.5 as the longest answer ever written to a simple yes-or-no question, methinks.

Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2004 2:56 pm
by Jack
You make good points Jake, and I do think that TLK1.5 will be more popular than the usual DTV fare, but I still don't think it'll surpass the success of the Simba's Pride.

Firstly, Disney has over-crowded the market with DTV sequels. When TLK2 first came out, I think there was more respect in general for the group it belonged to. But I think Disney sequels have just become something people look at as "Stuff to pick up to keep the kids occupied" not "Quality entertainment the whole family will like". DTV sequels have become much more than a mixed bag - most of the time they have a negative vibe. So, even though TLK1.5 may get more postive buzz that any normal sequel, its still sort of stuck in the muck of a cheap reputation

Second, as Satoshi brought out, there was a lot more demand for TLK product (I try not the use the word "franchise" to describe a series of artistic peices, wether they seem to be made for a quick buck or not) back in the mid-90's, and while its still popular, I don't think 1.5 has generated or will generate enough hype to reign over the first sequel.

Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2004 4:28 pm
by Jake Lipson
Exellent points, both of which I agree on.

Also, remember the release date for Simba's Pride? October 27, 1998. A nice, choice spot that made it a prime contender for holiday shopping season business. It's the same strategy Disney is using with the October Platinum titles, including The Lion King. And it worked.

Now look at the street date for The Lion King 1 1/2. February 10, 2004. Not exactly a choicey slot, is it? What I think is happening here is they're trying to distance themselves from the original to establish their own "event" status. in order to prove that the sequels can stand alone and don't need the original's help, while still not being too far away from the first movie's release so that the effect that the brand has upon customers won't completely wash away. Not sure that's the best way to play it. Personally, I would have slated The Lion King, 1 1/2, and Simba's Pride for release one month apart in October, November and December 2003, respectively. But, ah well.

Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2004 6:03 pm
by MickeyMousePal
Yes Lion King 1 1/2 will dethrone Simba's Pride and become the top selling direct-to-video release ever.

The population in the world has increase in the last 5 years.
More children will want to buy the Lion King 1 1/2 DVD.
Also prequels are more popular then sequels.
The main characters are Timon and Pumbaa who doesn't like
Timon and Pumbaa.
Also it's the first prequel Disney took out.
I know I will buy it and enjoy it. :D

Posted: Sat Jan 24, 2004 7:17 pm
by Jack
MickeyMousePal wrote:The population in the world has increase in the last 5 years.
With that analogy, Simba's Pride should've out-grossed The Lion King on video, since it came out 4 years later.
MickeyMousePal wrote:More children will want to buy the Lion King 1 1/2 DVD.
In speculation, I can somewhat agree with you, since 1.5 appears more comedic and light-hearted that TLK 2 was.
MickeyMousePal wrote:Also prequels are more popular then sequels.
What evidence is there of that?

Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2004 9:14 am
by Lady
isn't Simba's Pride being re-released as a 2-disc (SE tentatively scheduled for August 2004)? in which case it will be hard for Lion King 1 1/2 to dethrone Simba's Pride given that the latter has had the advantage of two widely advertised releases.