DVDizzy Forum

Early weekend estimates for Winnie the Pooh are out. Ouch.

deadline.com:
6th place. Winnie The Pooh (Disney) NEW [2,405 Theaters]
Friday $2.6M, Estimated Weekend $8M

Oh, boy. It would have been better if you hadn't posted that. Now, we're going to have put up with DisneyJedi's whining the whole weekend. Nice going.

How is it this movie might do worse than The Tigger Movie/Piglet's Big Movie?

Piglet's Big Movie made about $6 million on its opening weekend. If it does make $8 million this weekend, that's only a notch below Tigger Movie. If it has the same legs as Tigger, it should easily make a profit and Disney was very happy with how The Tigger Movie performed.

Looking back at the previous Pooh features, they tend to start small but word-of-mouth tends to help them hold up each week. And considering the incredible reviews Winnie the Pooh has being getting and the very positive audience response, I think it will hold up incredibly well every week.

And look at the competition it has at the box office. "HP 7.2", "Transformers 3", "Cars 2" (yes it is competition because it is doing well both in 3-D and 2-D), "Horrible Bosses" and next week we get "Captain America", so stick by "Winnie The Pooh", I think that word of mouth will bring the box office tallies up quite a bit, and remember this is a family film, and we all know what "stamp of doom" a "G" rating is for movies nowadays.

I think that "Pooh" will do quite well and Disney will be more than happy to rake in the profits when the Blu-ray and DVD comes out later this year.

dvdjunkie wrote: I will have to agree with some who have said this is the best movie of the summer so far. It was barely an hour long, but there is not a boring moment that I can remember. I want to go see this movie again on the big screen, but it has made it to the Top Three movies on my list of Blu-ray "must haves". And, by the way, the kids really enjoyed the film also.

I'm glad you and your grandchildren enjoyed it! I agree, it's easily my favorite movie of the summer. And also my favorite in all of 2011!

Victurtle wrote:How is it this movie might do worse than The Tigger Movie/Piglet's Big Movie?

Potter, I guess

EDITED TO ADD - As others have said, hopefully it will get "legs" from the positive word of mouth and the good reviews. I know I enjoyed it enough to go back a few more times before it leaves, so hopefully it will get repeat business from other fans as well.

But it certainly wasn't very encouraging to be there at midnight at the ONLY midnight Thur/Fri screening in my entire metro area and have only 6 other people in the entire theatre, while the Potter fans were filling up multiple midnight screens at that and other multiplexes throught the area.

Then again, the midnight time was probably a factor as far as a lot of kids not being able to attend at that time.

dvdjunkie wrote: I think that word of mouth will bring the box office tallies up quite a bit, and remember this is a family film, and we all know what "stamp of doom" a "G" rating is for movies nowadays.

Sad but true. I guess I'm "old school" and in the minority, but a "G" rating makes me MORE likely to want to see a movie, as it tells me it will be good for my "inner child" and more likely to free of anything too violent, more likely to be free of anything too depressing, and free of other elements not to my taste!

The sad thing is that the last several decades of overmarketing and rebranding/modernizing of Pooh and the endless awful Walt Disney Television Animation productions have probably made many potential audiences (parents anyway) distrustful that there could be a quality production coming, preferring instead to keep their memories of the charming Walt Disney original.

I know that is the very problem this film is trying to address by rebooting to the old style with higher quality animation and story, but it may require exposure on home video and cable to convince the skeptics to trust again.

Disney, you really want to kill your chances at reviving your old school animated style movies, don't you?

That's all I have to say. Hopefully, it will gain legs. It is only its first day, so hopefully it won't flop. BTW, if anything, Disney should learn to get a non-'fail and bail' kind of agenda.

My only problem with looking at things as positively as I can? It's really not easy to do, especially when reality gives you a good kick in the pants every now and then. I'm already concerned enough with my paycheck bouncing not too long ago, when it's really all some jerk at work's fault. Especially because of the fact that my brother and I will be going to New York next Wednesday.

Overall, I just don't want people in the future to be like, 'Winnie the Pooh was NOT popular! The critics said it was popular, but it wasn't! Hardly anybody even watched that because of Harry Potter! '

Come on, stop over-reacting, you ["The word I'm searching for I can't say because there's preschool toys present"]! This film was never destined to make a lot of money. If it makes close to Tigger Movie numbers (which I think it will), it will be in the bank and Disney will be happy. Also, expect it to get an Animated Feature nomination at the Oscars, which will be the Mouse's only shot at the award this year.

And like it's been said a million times, Clements and Musker are walking on a hand-drawn animated film, so Disney and Lasseter are still committed to getting hand-drawn animation out there to the point where it can gain that '90s-sized audience it once had.

merlinjones wrote:The sad thing is that the last several decades of overmarketing and rebranding/modernizing of Pooh and the endless awful Walt Disney Television Animation productions have probably made many potential audiences (parents anyway) distrustful that there could be a quality production coming, preferring instead to keep their memories of the charming Walt Disney original.

I know that is the very problem this film is trying to address by rebooting to the old style with higher quality animation and story, but it may require exposure on home video and cable to convince the skeptics to trust again.

Yeah...I agree with that. Even some funny crossover ideas for advertising of the trailer that looked to spoof Harry Potter isn't going to get people over their minds that will make them think Pooh isn't just a babysitter on a screen. In my opinion....It's gonna take a long time before people truly embrace that Pooh isn't just a kids or toddler movie and Adults (which doesn't include die hard Disney Fans )

And I agree...the rating system I don't even try to comprehend or my mind just might explode by the time I figure it out.

On the back of the box of Twister...it says this..

Rated PG-13 for intense depiction of very bad weather.

Let's not forget this was originally going to be designed as a Direct to DVD movie, but it was upgraded before production began. Disney really just wanted a new Pooh movie to sell on disc.

Disney is more relying on the DVD/Blu-ray and merchandise sales with this one than the theater tickets.

I bet that was even a discussion or two they've had: that the box office numbers won't tell the whole story for this film, more so than their other animated features.

Pooh is G, and hand drawn - two things that make it seem "old fashioned" - kids may actually want to see it, but parents are nervous and don't ask and take them to the flashier films instead.

Also, every review is quick to point out this is just over an hour. My mom even asked me, "do they reduce the ticket rate on shorter films?" An hour movie for $8+ a ticket is hefty.

In a little more than 10 years, we already had The Tigger Movie (2000), Piglet's Big Movie (2003) and Pooh's Heffalump Movie (2005) in theater - not to mention several others released and re-released on DVD, as well as "My Friends Tigger & Pooh" on TV.

People may be all Pooh-d out, they maybe should have waited a few more years for this film.

Ioz wrote:6th place. Winnie The Pooh (Disney) NEW [2,405 Theaters]
Friday $2.6M, Estimated Weekend $8M

That's lower than analysts' expectations.

Neal wrote:Disney is more relying on the DVD/Blu-ray and merchandise sales with this one than the theater tickets.

I know that the new Pooh film was produced primarily to boost Pooh merchandise sales and sell well on home video but has it lived up to those expectations so far? Does anyone have any reports on recent Pooh merchandise sales and home video sales in the foreign markets where it has been released?

You know, I wouldn't be too surprised if they just released this movie the same day as Harry Potter just so Disney could have an excuse to shut down 2D forever. It's freakin' Home on the Range all over again! They purposely made a lackluster Disney film and released it in April 2004 instead of summer or winter break just so Michael Eisner could 'prove' that 2D was 'dead'!

And now, Bob Iger is releasing Winnie the Pooh the same day as Harry Potter. Thanks, Bob. Thanks a friggin' lot. You're gonna kill 2D before it has a chance to get back off the ground, and you've got no one to blame but yourself.

Not knowing much about it myself, was Pooh a big merchandise pusher overseas before? I just know he's Disney's #2 franchise in the U.S. behind Cars.

DisneyJedi wrote:They purposely made a lackluster Disney film and released it in April 2004 instead of summer or winter break just so Michael Eisner could 'prove' that 2D was 'dead'!

Lacklustre? Have you not read the reviews?

DisneyJedi wrote:Thanks, Bob. Thanks a friggin' lot. You're gonna kill 2D before it has a chance to get back off the ground, and you've got no one to blame but yourself.

Do you have to be so melodramatic? How many times do people have to point out that Ron Clements and John Musker are working on a hand-drawn film at Disney right now before you take notice?

Yes, I'm well aware that John and Ron are working on a secret hand-drawn film, but....

Don't get me wrong, I like John, Ron and any film they've directed, but come on! Surely they're not the only people willing to actually direct a hand-drawn film at Disney!

Maybe if they got one of the directors from Pixar to direct a hand-drawn film, it MIGHT help, especially since Brad Bird did work on a hand-drawn film that hardly anyone noticed. But that's just wishful thinking.

DisneyJedi - where would you have released it this summer? There have been blockbuster releases many weeks this summer. The same day as Harry Potter is stupid, but there isn't a "perfect" time to release this movie.

Again, I think you sound like a conspiracy theorist - no one at Disney is trying to purposefully kill 2D.

Neal wrote:Not knowing much about it myself, was Pooh a big merchandise pusher overseas before? I just know he's Disney's #2 franchise in the U.S. behind Cars.

Here's a graph by the 'The Wall Street Journal':

Hm, I read somewhere Cars was #1 for Disney? I know there was a Disney Consumer Products press release stating as much...

I just got back from seeing the film. I wasn't originally going to see it in theaters on opening weekend, but I decided I really wanted to contribute my small part to the opening weekend numbers and support traditional animation.

My theater was showing the film in one of their smaller rooms, but it was still pretty full...of 3 year-olds and their parents. I don't think anything could break the "stigma" that Pooh is for toddlers at this point. It was a little awkward being a 26 year-old male in a sea of children and parents, but hey, I wanted to support the film!

I'm not a huge Pooh fan but I thought the film was pretty good. The audience seemed pretty entertained, so that's good. Even though this film isn't going to be a blockbuster, I hope Disney sees traditional animation as a viable form of entertainment and keeps putting the pencil to paper in the future.