DVDizzy Forum

Friday's estimates show <i>National Treasure</i> in the lead, but Saturday and Sunday's more family-friendly movie days will probably push it below <i>Spongebob Squarepants</i> to 2nd, and possibly even below <i>The Incredibles</i> to third, but I wouldn't count on it:

Ranking, Movie, # of theaters, Friday's gross, total gross (if applicable)
1 <b>NATIONAL TREASURE</b> 3,017 $11,000,000
2 <b>THE SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS MOVIE</b> 3,212 $9,400,000
3 <b>THE INCREDIBLES</b> 3,683 $6,550,000 ($157,582,000)
4 <b>THE POLAR EXPRESS</b> 3,650 $3,690,000 ($39,485,000)
5 <b>BRIDGET JONES: THE EDGE OF REASON</b> 2,450 $3,340,000 ($14,807,000)

Source: boxofficemojo.com

Surprising for National Treasure. I guess this isn't such a bad year for Disney after all, they're shaping up

Wow, NT did much better than I expected - I guess Nic Cage wasn't enough to keep them away! And SpongeBob should do $30 Million, as expected. Cameos by Alec Baldwin and David Hasselhoff my not draw MickeyMousePal to see the movie, but they sure draw everyone else.

I went to see The Incredibles for the second time today, with a friend who was seeing it for the first time. While nothing quite beats the experience of seeing it opening day, I still had a blast and my opinion of it hasn't changed a bit - definately one of the best animated movies ever, and my friend agrees. We were actually going to check out NT too, afterwards, but the theater showing it was 100% packed! My jaw must've been hitting the floor!

Saturday's numbers from ShowbizData:

Saturday, November, 20, 2004 Title Daily Total
NATIONAL TREASURE 15.0 / 26.4
SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS THE MOVIE 14.2 / 23.9
THE INCREDIBLES 12.2 / 169.8
POLAR EXPRESS 6.7 / 46.3
BRIDGET JONES: THE EDGE OF REASON 4.4 / 19.4

Looks like <i>National Treasure</i> will take #1, and <i>Incredibles</i> will fall to #3 in a close race with 3 films grossing $25 million or more.

Box Office Mojo's weekend estimates:

1 National Treasure BV $35,298,000
3 The Incredibles BV $26,790,000 ($177.8 M total)

NT and SBSP making $30+ million. Win-win situation, I think it so.

It looks like <i>National Treasure</i> will stay atop the box office for Thanksgiving weekend as well.

Here are the last two days' estimates:

Wednesday's Top 6 (www.boxofficemojo.com)

1) <b>National Treasure</b> $5.7 million
2) <b>The Incredibles</b> $4.4 million
3) <b>Alexander</b> $3.8 million
4) <b>The Spongebob Squarepants Movie</b> $3.7 million
5) <b>The Polar Express</b> $3.5 million
6) <b>Christmas with the Kranks</b> $3.4 million

Thursday's Top 6 (www.showbizdata.com)

1) <b>National Treasure</b> $7.9 million
2) <b>Christmas with the Kranks</b> $6.1 million
3) <b>The Incredibles</b> $4.9 million
4) <b>Alexander</b> $4.3 million
5) <b>The Polar Express</b> $3.9 million
6) <b>The Spongebob Squarepants Movie</b> $2.4 million

Wednesday and Thursday combined:

1) <b>National Treasure</b> $13.6 million
2) <b>Christmas with the Kranks</b> $9.5 million
3) <b>The Incredibles</b> $9.3 million
4) <b>Alexander</b> $8.1 million
5) <b>The Polar Express</b> $7.4 million
6) <b>The Spongebob Squarepants Movie</b> $6.1 million

In total, <i><b>The Incredibles</b></i> is estimated to have grossed $190.8 million, which makes it 2004's 5th-highest grossing film (and 2nd highest grossing non-sequel) at the domestic box office after 21 days in theaters.

Top 5 of 2004, domestic:
1) <b>Shrek 2</b> $441 M
2) <b>Spider-man 2</b> $373 M
3) <b>The Passion of the Christ</b> $370 M
4) <b>Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban</b> $249 M
5) <b>The Incredibles</b> $191 M

BoxOfficeMojo now has a very cool "Pixar vs. Pixar" chart up, comparing the day-by-day box office of all the films they've released thus far: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises ... -pixar.htm

Jack wrote:BoxOfficeMojo now has a very cool "Pixar vs. Pixar" chart up, comparing the day-by-day box office of all the films they've released thus far: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises ... -pixar.htm

Very cool, indeed! The most reasonable benchmark to compare <i>The Incredibles</i> to is <i>Monsters, Inc.</i> and it's a very healthy $32 million ahead of it.

While it should do $300 million, your prediction of so long ago is almost definitely right. <i>The Incredibles</i> just won't have the benefit of summer vacation that <i>Nemo</i> did and so it won't match it.

Yup! That's why, to me, its very hard to compare the true success of family films that are released at different times of the year.

For example, Shrek 2 is an awfully popular movie, and would have been nomatter when its release, no doubt. But what if TI swapped places with S2 in terms of release dates? Which would have made more money? I think it would've been a reversal of fortunes.

The same with Finding Nemo - if TI had been released in the summer, and FN in the winter, I'm absolutely sure TI would've been the winner financially.

In many ways, the saying "timing is everything" is quite true - especially with animated movies.

I saw The Polar Express today - probably the best 3-D movie not made or distributed by Disney, Pixar, or Dreamworks. The animation is even more eye-poppingly detailed and lifelike than Pixar, and it's truly a magical film; destined to become a perennial once it hits national television.

I haven't seen The Incredibles yet, but after viewing TPE, I want more 3-D animation. This release proves that you don't need to be Disney or Dreamworks in order to produce a quality animated film.

Wow... The Polar Express is doing better than I thought it would. What with all the horrible, horrible reviews on rottentomatoes (and the fact alone that when I saw the trailers for this movie during Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, it just didn't spark my interest--despite the amazing CG) I thought it would make about 0 dollars. At any rate, thank heavens it isn't a complete bomb.

And that Pixar v. Pixar chart is awesome. Thanks. ^-^

Well, it sounds like Pixar will start releasing all their films in summer, starting either with Cars, stretching the partnership with Disney 6 more months and releasing the film summer 2006, or they'll start with the rat film after Cars. I think that's a wise move financially. Then they can release the DVD's near Christmas, which is also the oppertune time to make money off new products.

Where did you get that information, PixarFan?

Jack wrote:Where did you get that information, PixarFan?

That was recently stated at the Pixar financial report for Quarter 3, but <i>Cars</i> won't be out until November. It's thenceforth they'll be doing summer movies.

Luke wrote:

Jack wrote:Where did you get that information, PixarFan?

That was recently stated at the Pixar financial report for Quarter 3, but <i>Cars</i> won't be out until November. It's thenceforth they'll be doing summer movies.

Assuming the studio who ends up distributing their films doesn't have their own family film release at the same time (scheduled for the same reasons - school holidays and Xmas DVD sales).

Friday's numbers indicate another victory for Disney's 1-2 punch!

Friday, November, 26, 2004 Title Daily Total
1. NATIONAL TREASURE 12.9 68.1
2. THE INCREDIBLES 9.8 200.6
3. CHRISTMAS WITH THE KRANKS 9.2 18.7
4. THE POLAR EXPRESS 7.8 70.2
5. SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS THE MOVIE 7.4 48.8
6. ALEXANDER 5.8 14.1
7. BRIDGET JONES: THE EDGE OF REASON 2.5 28.4
8. FINDING NEVERLAND 1.9 5.1
9. RAY 1.6 62.9
10. AFTER THE SUNSET 1.3 22.7

Source: showbizdata.com

Which would make the Top 6 for Wednesday through Friday:
1) <b>National Treasure</b> $26.6 million
2) <b>The Incredibles</b> $19.1 million
3) <b>Christmas with the Kranks</b> $18.6 million
5) <b>The Polar Express</b> $15.1 million
4) <b>Alexander</b> $14.0 million
6) <b>The Spongebob Squarepants Movie</b> $13.5 million

Friday's numbers push <i>The Incredibles</i> over $200 million, the 4th Pixar film (and 2nd quickest) to do that.

Box Office Mojo's numbers have National Treasure at $13 million and Incredibles at $10 million, hope those estimates are closer to te actuals, 10 million for Incredibles' fourth friday is... well incredible