DVDizzy Forum

Posted: **Sat Jun 18, 2005 10:50 pm**

I'm awful at this, but I'll try.

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe - $130 M
Chicken Little - $145 M
Herbie: Fully Loaded - $98 M
The Shaggy Dog - $65 M
Antarctica - $45 M
Sky High - $50 M
Valiant - $50 M
Glory Road - $30 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played - $25 M
Roving Mars - $7 M
Howl's Moving Castle - $21 M

Posted: **Sun Jun 19, 2005 10:14 am**

SofaKing381222 wrote:Chicken Little-$150 million
Herbie Fully Loaded- $125 million
The Shaggy Dog- $112 million
Sky High- $85 million
Valiant- $85 million
Greatest Game Ever Played- $21 million
Antarctica- $50 million
Roving Mars- $10 million
Glory Road- $25 million
The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe- $250 million
Howl's Moving Castle - $14 million

I fixed it! I updated some too.

Posted: **Sun Jun 19, 2005 11:21 am**

No more predicting/revising on Herbie.

According to Box Office Mojo, Howl's Moving Castle is estimated to have grossed another $802,000 for the weekend, which brings its current total to $1.42 M. Still has a looooong way to go to reach the mean prediction of $17.3 M. Ice Princess, The Pacifier, and The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy are all more or less wrapping up their box office runs, it seems. So I don't expect current leaders on those to change anytime soon. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see how much Aliens of the Deep fell for the weekend.

Posted: **Mon Jun 20, 2005 8:12 pm**

Alright, weekend actuals are in at Box Office Mojo, so it's time for a massive update taking into account all the new predictions.

Box Office Mojo has stopped tracking Ice Princess, so let's review that one first and call it done.

Ice Princess
Opened March 18, 2005. Closed June 2005.

Final Gross: $24,402,491
Closest Prediction: $25,000,000 by castleinthesky (97.6% accurate)

Rest of predictions:
2) toonstuff - $20 M (82% accurate)
3) Luke, pinkrenata, Lucylover1986 - $35 M (56.5% accurate)
6) Just Myself - $37.3 M (47% accurate)
7) PatrickvD - $40 M (36% accurate)
8) Jack - $41 M (32% accurate)
9) TheLittleMerman - $43 M (27% accurate)
10) MickeyMousePal - $90 M (0% accurate)

<hr>

By Predicted Gross:

The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $246.3 M
Chicken Little $145.9 M
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (current gross: $49,793,273, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (starts Wednesday)
The Shaggy Dog $73.3 M
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $112,090,500, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Valiant $51.7 M
Sky High $51.6 M
Antarctica $45.8 M
Glory Road $31.9 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $26.8 M
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (current gross: $1,482,895, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $5,952,746, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)
Roving Mars $8.6 M

Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)

By Release Date:
Aliens of the Deep $9.2 M (current gross: $5,952,746, closest - MickeyMousePal, $5 M)
Pooh's Heffalump Movie $28.9 M (final gross: $18,098,433, closest - Lucylover1986, $20 M)
The Pacifier $57.8 M (current gross: $112,090,500, closest - MickeyMousePal, $80 M)
Ice Princess $40.1 M (final gross: $24,402,491, closest - castleinthesky, $25 M)
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $122.3 M (current gross: $49,793,273, closest - toonstuff, $75 M)
Howl's Moving Castle $17.3 M (current gross: $1,482,895, closest - pinkrenata/Jack/TheLittleMerman, $5 M)

Herbie: Fully Loaded $92.7 M (starts Wednesday)
Sky High $51.6 M
Valiant $51.7 M
The Greatest Game Ever Played $26.8 M
Chicken Little $145.9 M
The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe $246.3 M

Glory Road $31.9 M
Roving Mars $8.6 M
Antarctica $45.8 M
The Shaggy Dog $73.3 M

Posted: **Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:12 pm**

wow, almost accurate castle! how...interesting!

Hmm, if Pacifier can make over $100 M, then Herbie should make $100 M.

Then again, I'm sure many people would pay to see Vin babysit over Lindsay's racing!

(just kidding)

Posted: **Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:03 pm**

Source: Box Office Mojo

Yesterday, Wednesday June 22, 2005 Herbie: Fully Loaded made $2,702,433 on it's first day.

Posted: **Thu Jun 23, 2005 2:15 pm**

That's definitely not the most encouraging start, but some kids are still in school, and maybe/hopefully this can do better business over the weekend.

Here's the top 10 for Yesterday from BOM:
1) Batman Begins $5.5 M
2) Mr. and Mrs. Smith $3.1 M
3) Herbie: Fully Loaded $2.7 M
4) Madagascar $1.5 M
5) The Longest Yard $1.1 M
6) Revenge of the Sith $1.0 M
7) Sharkboy and Lava Girl $0.8 M
8) The Perfect Man $0.7 M
9) Cinderella Man $0.6 M
10) The Sisterhood of the Travelling Pants $0.6 M

Herbie made $819 per theater.

Posted: **Thu Jun 23, 2005 3:24 pm**

Luke wrote:3) Herbie: Fully Loaded $2.7 M

Dang, rough start.
I *think* that's okay for a Wednesday opening...maybe Friday, lots of kids&teens will go and see it after school!

Posted: **Thu Jun 23, 2005 4:21 pm**

Yeah Star Wars passed 350 million!

Anyways getting back on topic, kids are in school, but I still don't think it's going to do well. I mean not only have alot kids never heard of Herbie, but I don't think loads of people are going to go to the movie just because Lohan is in it like Krystal thinks. I think it will do so-so.

Posted: **Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:53 pm**

Yeah, no one I know wants to see it. All the kids I know wanna see Bewitched over Herbie.

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:42 am**

Weekend estimates are in at Box Office Mojo:

1 1 Batman Begins WB $26,770,000 -45.1% 3,858 - $6,938 $121,697,000 $150 2
2 N Bewitched Sony $20,200,000 - 3,174 - $6,364 $20,200,000 $80 1
3 2 Mr. and Mrs. Smith Fox $16,750,000 -35.7% 3,265 -186 $5,130 $125,438,000 $110 3
4 N Herbie: Fully Loaded BV $12,750,000 - 3,521 +2,665 $3,621 $17,787,000 $50 1
5 N George A. Romero's Land of the Dead Uni. $10,233,000 - 2,249 - $4,550 $10,233,000 $15 1
6 3 Madagascar DW $7,300,000 -32.0% 2,948 -585 $2,476 $160,056,000 - 5
7 4 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $6,250,000 -37.7% 2,371 -552 $2,636 $358,606,000 $113 6
8 5 The Longest Yard Par. $5,475,000 -33.6% 2,516 -796 $2,176 $141,895,000 $82 5
9 6 The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl (3D) Dim. $3,425,000 -48.8% 2,352 -303 $1,456 $30,469,000 - 3
10 7 Cinderella Man Uni. $3,270,000 -41.3% 1,677 -933 $1,949 $49,592,000 $88 4
11 8 The Perfect Man Uni. $2,498,000 -52.9% 2,090 +3 $1,195 $10,783,000 $10 2
12 N Rize Lions $1,600,000 - 352 - $4,545 $1,600,000 - 1
13 9 The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants WB $1,455,000 -53.5% 1,411 -795 $1,031 $33,891,000 $25 4
14 10 The Honeymooners Par. $1,030,000 -61.1% 1,032 -880 $998 $11,633,000 $25 3
15 11 Crash Lions $930,000 -28.3% 492 -159 $1,890 $48,098,000 $6.50 8
16 13 Howl's Moving Castle BV $560,000 -35.2% 202 - $2,772 $2,493,000 - 3

I've bolded the two Disney ones. Unless Herbie has phenomenal legs, it's looking at about $50 million domestically. That was the film's budget, so it won't turn a profit theatrically unless international intakes can offset the high marketing costs. But of course I'm sure it will do fine on DVD.

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:46 am**

Wow, Bewitched did well the first week!

I should be rooting for Herbie

but my guestimate is far off.
It's like when MMP guessed $650 M for Ice Princess.
with a typo of course

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:51 pm**

so much for Herbie doing over $100 M... ah well.. what's next, Sky High?

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:57 pm**

And you guys didn't believe me! You were so sure that Lindsey's boobs and Herbie would make big $$$!

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2005 3:27 pm**

PatrickvD wrote:so much for Herbie doing over $100 M... ah well.. what's next, Sky High?

Don't see that happening. I think the next chance (and it's more than a outside chance really) will probably be Chicken Little. Like last year with Incredibles and Treasure, Chicken and Narnia will have to pick up the pieces and put Disney back on track after what's been a mostly unspectacular year so far, with the exception of The Pacifier. There are a couple of Touchstone films coming out too, but I'm not sure how well they're expected to do.

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2005 5:44 pm**

Luke wrote:
PatrickvD wrote:so much for Herbie doing over $100 M... ah well.. what's next, Sky High?
Don't see that happening. I think the next chance (and it's more than a outside chance really) will probably be Chicken Little. Like last year with Incredibles and Treasure, Chicken and Narnia will have to pick up the pieces and put Disney back on track after what's been a mostly unspectacular year so far, with the exception of The Pacifier. There are a couple of Touchstone films coming out too, but I'm not sure how well they're expected to do.

wasn't there a Jodie Foster thriller about an airplane coming? That could do well. We'll see, but I agree about the 2 movies a la Treasure and Incredibles.

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2005 7:10 pm**

PatrickvD wrote:wasn't there a Jodie Foster thriller about an airplane coming? That could do well. We'll see, but I agree about the 2 movies a la Treasure and Incredibles.

Yeah, there's Flight Plan (the Jodie Foster thriller), Dark Water (another thriller starring Jennifer Connelly, which opens in a few weeks), and the Steve Martin comedy Shopgirl in the fall. I don't think expectations are TOO high for any of them, but they could be decent-sized hits. In any event, 2006 will almost certainly be bigger, even from just what's already on the slate so far.

Posted: **Sun Jun 26, 2005 9:21 pm**

And I thought Herbie: Fully Loaded was going to make $100 million.

Posted: **Mon Jun 27, 2005 10:05 am**

Luke wrote:
PatrickvD wrote:wasn't there a Jodie Foster thriller about an airplane coming? That could do well. We'll see, but I agree about the 2 movies a la Treasure and Incredibles.
Yeah, there's Flight Plan (the Jodie Foster thriller), Dark Water (another thriller starring Jennifer Connelly, which opens in a few weeks), and the Steve Martin comedy Shopgirl in the fall. I don't think expectations are TOO high for any of them, but they could be decent-sized hits. In any event, 2006 will almost certainly be bigger, even from just what's already on the slate so far.

yes 2006 will be bigger. Usually I don't do extreme predictions saying a certain movie will have the biggest opening weekend ever, but I truly believe Pirates 2 will break a LOT of records. Its fanbase and appeal is at least as broad as Star Wars and Lord of the Rings. Depp, Bloom and Knightly are certain to cause another teenage hormone explosion as well next summer. Cars will also do well. Though the CG movie is no big event anymore, the moviegoing audience is now very much aware of Pixar's track record and brand name. Those two movies will be BIG.

Posted: **Mon Jun 27, 2005 10:35 am**

PatrickvD wrote:yes 2006 will be bigger. Usually I don't do extreme predictions saying a certain movie will have the biggest opening weekend ever, but I truly believe Pirates 2 will break a LOT of records. Its fanbase and appeal is at least as broad as Star Wars and Lord of the Rings. Depp, Bloom and Knightly are certain to cause another teenage hormone explosion as well next summer. Cars will also do well. Though the CG movie is no big event anymore, the moviegoing audience is now very much aware of Pixar's track record and brand name. Those two movies will be BIG.

Plus don't forget the Tim Allen spring/fall twosome with Shaggy Dog and Santa Clause 3. Familiar titles and a Disney star the public has taken to again and again.

DVDizzy Forum

Predict how much the 2005 Disney films will earn