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74th Golden Globe Awards (2016-17):
Film Nominations Preview and Predictions

Live Stream:

Has it really been a year since the Golden Globes announced their nominees? The calendar says yes, exactly one year ago today, 2015's nominees were revealed by the likes of America Ferrara, ChloŽ Grace Moretz, Dennis Quaid, and Angela Bassett. Hundreds of movies have been released since then, some of which are on the radar of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association,
Hold on to your globes... he's back. Ricky Gervais hosts the 2016 Golden Globe Awards -- official poster
a group of around 90 international journalists whose opinions dictate one of the most consistently entertaining awards ceremonies around, every January on NBC.

I've seen over 150 films released in 2016, including most that are in contention for Globes. There are a few blind spots I will address in the coming days and weeks, including Silence, Patriots Day, Jackie, Fences, Passengers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Gold, The Founder, Lion, and Live By Night. But relying on the 150+ I have seen and what I know about the ones I haven't and the people that made them, I present to you my annual predictions for the Golden Globes' film nominations, which will be announced Monday morning at 8 Eastern/5 Pacific (live stream below) by Don Cheadle, Anna Kendrick, and Laura Dern. As usual, my picks are arranged from most likely to least likely.

Starring a powerfully understated Casey Affleck as a man weathering tragedy in Massachusetts, Kenneth Lonergan's "Manchester by the Sea" is one of the best-reviewed films of 2016.

Best Picture - Drama
Manchester by the Sea

Next in line: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Sully, Loving

The Globes have expanded this category to include six or even seven nominees some years and looking at the list of films that might just miss the cut suggests they wouldn't be wrong to do so this year. Manchester and Moonlight seem like locks here, and will probably vie for the win, but any of the other eight could realistically occupy those final three slots.

Get ready for "La La Land" to dominate the awards season and spark backlash in the process.

Best Picture - Comedy or Musical
La La Land
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail, Caesar!
The Lobster
Love & Friendship

Next in line: Sing Street, 20th Century Women, The Edge of Seventeen

Should have been contenders: Zootopia, The Nice Guys

There will probably be a great deal less suspense to this awards season than there have been in recent years past, with Damien Chazelle's delightful La La Land looking like a runaway winner in many Oscar categories. It has this traditionally none too competitive Globe locked up too, no doubt. In fact, it's probably the only film classified as a comedy or musical with a Oscar Best Picture nomination in the cards. I'd rank Zootopia above everything but La La Land, but because it's animated, it's ineligible here. I will never miss an opportunity to point out how stupid this rule is from the Globes, who in the past deservingly gave out this Best Picture award to Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, and Toy Story 2. And The Nice Guys remains one of the best films of 2016 in any genre, but it seems most unlikely the HFPA remembers it from all the way back in May.

By process of elimination, the unspectacular "Florence Foster Jenkins" is almost certain to become nominated for the Golden Globes' Best Picture - Comedy or Musical award.

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Best Actors and Beyond

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Posted December 10, 2016.

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